Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 guidance: Shipment: up 9-11% due to higher customer demand. ASP: down 0-2% QoQ. GM: 28-30%, up 3ppts QoQ.</li>
<li>Pricing hit bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 returning to 70-80%.</li>
<li>Effective tax rate for 2H24 is expected to be 20%.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 guidance: Shipment: up 9-11% due to higher customer demand. ASP: down 0-2% QoQ. GM: 28-30%, up 3ppts QoQ.
Pricing hit bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 returning to 70-80%.
Effective tax rate for 2H24 is expected to be 20%.


Vanguard (5347.TT): Pricing Hit Bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 Returning to 70-80%.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>LG Innotek sees record 2Q24 results from iPhone 15 sales, while Tesla and Nvidia vie for top spot in autonomous driving tech.</li><li>US bans Chinese EVs, EU examines high taxes, prompting potential semiconductor strategy changes in South Korea and Taiwan post-US election.</li><li>Amkor receives CHIPS Act incentives, Huawei sues MediaTek in China as YMTC anticipates chip demand, India's iVP Semi targets local market. Taiwan diversifies workforce with ASEAN talent.</li></ul>

LG Innotek sees record 2Q24 results from iPhone 15 sales, while Tesla and Nvidia vie for top spot in autonomous driving tech.US bans Chinese EVs, EU examines high taxes, prompting potential semiconductor strategy changes in South Korea and Taiwan post-US election.Amkor receives CHIPS Act incentives, Huawei sues MediaTek in China as YMTC anticipates chip demand, India's iVP Semi targets local market. Taiwan diversifies workforce with ASEAN talent.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Jul-2024): LG Innotek's record 2Q24 driven by iPhone 15 boom.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD924.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,653mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD924.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,653mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: Crashed Then Rebounded to +15.1% Premium; Likely to Break Down Again</li>
<li>UMC: -0.2% Discount; Earnings Imminent; Notable Decrease in ADR Headroom</li>
<li>ASE: Rebounded to +9.2 Premium After Major Breakdown; Likely to Drop Again</li>
</ul>


TSMC: Crashed Then Rebounded to +15.1% Premium; Likely to Break Down Again
UMC: -0.2% Discount; Earnings Imminent; Notable Decrease in ADR Headroom
ASE: Rebounded to +9.2 Premium After Major Breakdown; Likely to Drop Again


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premium Trading Range Blow-Outs During Recent Sell-Off

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A TALE OF TWO SEMI INDUSTRIES: ASE's latest earnings commentary indicates that the performance gap between "leading-edge" technologies and "traditional/mature" semiconductor technologies may be widening.</li>
<li>CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO KEEP PACE IS RISING: Capacity utilization is starkly different for traditional vs. leading-edge capacity; and capital requirements to keep up in terms of advanced capacity is rising.</li>
<li>ENTRY BARRIERS RISING: We suspect that smaller players could face significant challenges in keeping up with the investments necessary for leading-edge packaging and testing capacity. ASE needs to invest heavily.</li>
</ul>


A TALE OF TWO SEMI INDUSTRIES: ASE's latest earnings commentary indicates that the performance gap between "leading-edge" technologies and "traditional/mature" semiconductor technologies may be widening.
CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO KEEP PACE IS RISING: Capacity utilization is starkly different for traditional vs. leading-edge capacity; and capital requirements to keep up in terms of advanced capacity is rising.
ENTRY BARRIERS RISING: We suspect that smaller players could face significant challenges in keeping up with the investments necessary for leading-edge packaging and testing capacity. ASE needs to invest heavily.


ASE Color Suggests Widening Performance Gap Between Leading-Edge and Mature Semiconductor Players

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Vanguard (5347.TT): Pricing Hit Bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 Returning to 70-80%.

3Q24 guidance shows increased shipments due to higher demand GM expected to rise 3ppts QoQ. Anticipates pricing to improve in 2025. Effective tax...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Jul-2024): LG Innotek's record 2Q24 driven by iPhone 15 boom.

LG Innotek's record results driven by iPhone 15 sales, Tesla and Nvidia battle for autonomous driving, US bans Chinese EVs, EU cautious on taxes,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premium Trading Range Blow-Outs During Recent Sell-Off

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASE Color Suggests Widening Performance Gap Between Leading-Edge and Mature Semiconductor Players

ASE's latest earnings show widening gap between leading-edge and traditional semiconductor technologies, with rising capital requirements and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vanguard (5347.TT): Pricing Hit Bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 Returning to 70-80%.

​3Q24 guidance shows increased shipments due to higher demand GM expected to rise 3ppts QoQ. Anticipates pricing to improve in 2025. Effective tax...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Jul-2024): LG Innotek's record 2Q24 driven by iPhone 15 boom.

LG Innotek's record results driven by iPhone 15 sales, Tesla and Nvidia battle for autonomous driving, US bans Chinese EVs, EU cautious on taxes,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premium Trading Range Blow-Outs During Recent Sell-Off

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASE Color Suggests Widening Performance Gap Between Leading-Edge and Mature Semiconductor Players

​ASE's latest earnings show widening gap between leading-edge and traditional semiconductor technologies, with rising capital requirements and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

3Q24 guidance shows increased shipments due to higher demand GM expected to rise 3ppts QoQ. Anticipates pricing to improve in 2025. Effective tax...

ASE's latest earnings show widening gap between leading-edge and traditional semiconductor technologies, with rising capital requirements and...