Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Forecasting PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments to increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement"</li>
<li>Server unit shipments declined ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues remained flat, a consequence of higher ASPs associated with AI-accelerated servers</li>
<li>Server shipments will return to growth in 2024, likely +10% YoY. Server ASPs will increase yet again YoY as AI-server mix grows. </li>
</ul>


Forecasting PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments to increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement"
Server unit shipments declined ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues remained flat, a consequence of higher ASPs associated with AI-accelerated servers
Server shipments will return to growth in 2024, likely +10% YoY. Server ASPs will increase yet again YoY as AI-server mix grows. 


Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The sales in January 2024 were the lowest during the period of 2022-2024, indicating a likely downtrend for the first quarter of 2024.</li>
<li>Demand is expected to be flat or slightly increase in 2Q24F for GlobalWafers, which is encouraging.</li>
<li>The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.</li>
</ul>


The sales in January 2024 were the lowest during the period of 2022-2024, indicating a likely downtrend for the first quarter of 2024.
Demand is expected to be flat or slightly increase in 2Q24F for GlobalWafers, which is encouraging.
The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The supply chain received good news that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> as successfully passed iPhone 16 OLED DRIVER IC (DDIC) qualification.</li>
<li>Novatek's recent alliance with ARM to develop Neoverse V2 is a noteworthy development.</li>
<li>Novatek's 1Q24F forecast remains unchanged, but the outlook for 2024F is likely to show positive growth.</li>
</ul>


The supply chain received good news that Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) as successfully passed iPhone 16 OLED DRIVER IC (DDIC) qualification.
Novatek's recent alliance with ARM to develop Neoverse V2 is a noteworthy development.
Novatek's 1Q24F forecast remains unchanged, but the outlook for 2024F is likely to show positive growth.


Novatek (3034.TT): It Had Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC.

<ul>
<li>The sales of Jan 2024F were the lowest during 2022-2024F, indicating a likely downtrend for 1Q24F.</li>
<li>Demand is expected to remain sluggish in 2Q24F, potentially resulting in decreased raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory in 2Q24F.</li>
<li>The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.</li>
</ul>


The sales of Jan 2024F were the lowest during 2022-2024F, indicating a likely downtrend for 1Q24F.
Demand is expected to remain sluggish in 2Q24F, potentially resulting in decreased raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory in 2Q24F.
The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.


Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.</li>
<li>
<strong>Why the worst among all?</strong> We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.</li>
<li>
<strong>Priced in?</strong> We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.</li>
</ul>


Microchip used to be the bellwether for semiconductor demand After many semis guided weaknesses in automotive, industrial, and digital consumer much earlier, Microchip's 19% miss in 1Q24 gives no surprise.

Why the worst among all? We attributed Microchip to over 85% of its products on automotive, industrial, and digital consumer. Other semis have higher exposure on PC and comm.

Priced in? We estimate over 20% y/y decline in 2024 sales vs. Bloomberg's -8% y/y. 2024E EPS of US$2.94 is likely below US$1. Price is only 10% below historical peak.


From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

PC & Smartphone unit shipments will increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement". Server shipments fell ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues...

William Keating

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.

Sales in Jan 2024 hit a low, hinting at a downward trend for 1Q24. GlobalWafers may see flat or slightly increased demand in 2Q24, with 12" wafers...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): It Had Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC.

Novatek's successful qualification for iPhone 16 OLED DDIC and partnership with ARM for Neoverse V2 development signal positive growth in 2024.

Patrick Liao

Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F

Sales of Jan 2024F hit a low, signaling a potential downtrend for 1Q24F. Demand in 2Q24F may decrease raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory. 12"...

Patrick Liao

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All? For next six months, we like both Intel and Qualcomm more...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

PC & Smartphone unit shipments will increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement". Server shipments fell ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues...

William Keating

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.

​Sales in Jan 2024 hit a low, hinting at a downward trend for 1Q24. GlobalWafers may see flat or slightly increased demand in 2Q24, with 12" wafers...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): It Had Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC.

​Novatek's successful qualification for iPhone 16 OLED DDIC and partnership with ARM for Neoverse V2 development signal positive growth in 2024.

Patrick Liao

Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F

​Sales of Jan 2024F hit a low, signaling a potential downtrend for 1Q24F. Demand in 2Q24F may decrease raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory. 12"...

Patrick Liao

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All?

From the Bellwether to a Lagging Indicator- Why Does Microchip Guide the Worst Among All? For next six months, we like both Intel and Qualcomm more...

Andrew Lu

Sales in Jan 2024 hit a low, hinting at a downward trend for 1Q24. GlobalWafers may see flat or slightly increased demand in 2Q24, with 12" wafers...

Novatek's successful qualification for iPhone 16 OLED DDIC and partnership with ARM for Neoverse V2 development signal positive growth in 2024.

Sales of Jan 2024F hit a low, signaling a potential downtrend for 1Q24F. Demand in 2Q24F may decrease raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory. 12"...