Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This week will see a wave of earnings releases for the industry including Intel, Microsofot, Mediatek, ASE, and UMC.</li>
<li>TSMC results last week provided positive color on the 2024E onwards outlook for the company as well as comments regarding a turn around for PC and mobile.</li>
<li>Taiwan AI names were some of the top losers across our Taiwan Tech universe last week.</li>
</ul>


This week will see a wave of earnings releases for the industry including Intel, Microsofot, Mediatek, ASE, and UMC.
TSMC results last week provided positive color on the 2024E onwards outlook for the company as well as comments regarding a turn around for PC and mobile.
Taiwan AI names were some of the top losers across our Taiwan Tech universe last week.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Watch for Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, ASE, UMC Results; AI Names Top Losers

<ul>
<li>Premiums have generally fallen sharply most recently, likely driven by weaker global markets.</li>
<li>Key earnings: TSMC reported last week; UMC and ASE to report this week.</li>
<li>We describe our latest recommended premium/discount levels to Long or Short the spreads.</li>
</ul>


Premiums have generally fallen sharply most recently, likely driven by weaker global markets.
Key earnings: TSMC reported last week; UMC and ASE to report this week.
We describe our latest recommended premium/discount levels to Long or Short the spreads.


Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: Sharp Premium Drops Most Recently; Key Levels to Long or Short

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q323 revenues of $17.28 billion. In US$ terms, this represented a 10.2% increase QoQ, but still down 14.6% YoY.</li>
<li>TSMC’s forecasted Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion at the midpoint, representing a 10% QoQ increase</li>
<li>CEO C.C Wei robustly rebuffed Intel's popular claim to be on track for process technology leadership by 2025</li>
</ul>


Q323 revenues of $17.28 billion. In US$ terms, this represented a 10.2% increase QoQ, but still down 14.6% YoY.
TSMC’s forecasted Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion at the midpoint, representing a 10% QoQ increase
CEO C.C Wei robustly rebuffed Intel's popular claim to be on track for process technology leadership by 2025


TSMC. Robust Defence Of Process Technology Leadership

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.</li>
<li>TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.</li>
<li>Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.
TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.
Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.


TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 54.3%/ 41.7%/ NT$8.14/ 25.8% in 3Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18.8-19.6bn/ 51.5-53.5%; OPM: 39.5-41.5% in 4Q23F guidance.</li>
<li>Moving into 4Q23F, TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. </li>
<li>TSMC anticipates 2024F to experience healthy growth, and TSMC has noticed a resurgence in demand for smartphones and PCs.</li>
</ul>


The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 54.3%/ 41.7%/ NT$8.14/ 25.8% in 3Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18.8-19.6bn/ 51.5-53.5%; OPM: 39.5-41.5% in 4Q23F guidance.
Moving into 4Q23F, TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. 
TSMC anticipates 2024F to experience healthy growth, and TSMC has noticed a resurgence in demand for smartphones and PCs.


TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Lukewarm 4Q23F Outlook, and Hope to Experience a Healthy Growth in 2024F.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Watch for Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, ASE, UMC Results; AI Names Top Losers

TSMC results last week provided positive color on the 2024E onwards outlook for the company as well as comments regarding a turn around for PC and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: Sharp Premium Drops Most Recently; Key Levels to Long or Short

TSMC results last week. UMC and ASE results this week. We describe our latest recommended premium/discount levels to Long or Short the spreads.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC. Robust Defence Of Process Technology Leadership

Q323 revenue $17.28 billion, +10.2% QoQ in US$ terms but still down 14.6% YoY. Q423 revenues of $19.2 billion, +10% QoQ. CEO C.C. Wei says his N3P...

William Keating

TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

TSMC maintained its expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. It also reiterated its view that it can maintain its gross margin near all...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT;TSM.US): Lukewarm 4Q23F Outlook, and Hope to Experience a Healthy Growth in 2024F.

TSMC expects their business to be supported by smartphone seasonality, while AI-related demand continues to be strong. TSMC anticipates 2024F to...

Patrick Liao

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