Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.</li>
<li>The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.</li>
<li>TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 4Q23 results at the upper end of its guidance. More importantly, the company guided for low/mid 20% 2024E sales growth and reiterated an expected 15-20% multi-year CAGR.
The company provided optimistic guidance for the overall semiconductor industry, forecasting 10% growth in 2024E. TSMC expects to grow much faster than the industry, however.
TSMC is one of our Structural Longs; our NT$760 target implies 29% upside. The latest results make TSMC's Buy case even more clear, in our view.


TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.</li>
<li>TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.</li>
<li>2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.</li>
</ul>


The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS is USD$19.62bn/ 53%/ 41.6%/ NT$9.21 in 4Q23. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$18-18.8bn/ 52-54%/ 40-42% in 1Q24F guidance.
TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low to mid-twenties YoY.
2024F is expected to be a relatively healthy year for the high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors, with robust demand.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

<ul>
<li>TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result</li>
<li>AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend</li>
<li>Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year </li>
</ul>


TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result
AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend
Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues amounted to NT$625,529. In US$ terms, using TSMC’s projected exchange rate of 32, this translates to  $19.55 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ, and a 2% decrease YoY.</li>
<li>FY 2023 revenues amounted to NT$2,161.74 billion, down 4.5% YoY. In US$ terms, this amounted to $69.1 billion, an 8.8% decrease YoY and the first such YoY decrease since 2009</li>
<li>While we foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, we expect full year 2024 revenues to grow in the range of 5-10% YoY. </li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues amounted to NT$625,529. In US$ terms, using TSMC’s projected exchange rate of 32, this translates to  $19.55 billion, a ~13% increase QoQ, and a 2% decrease YoY.
FY 2023 revenues amounted to NT$2,161.74 billion, down 4.5% YoY. In US$ terms, this amounted to $69.1 billion, an 8.8% decrease YoY and the first such YoY decrease since 2009
While we foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, we expect full year 2024 revenues to grow in the range of 5-10% YoY. 


<ul>
<li>Taiwan PC names have been the top losers over the recent period, after having previously been the top winners. Our Long Dell vs. Short Acer trade is doing well.</li>
<li>Nanya Tech was a top loser, falling along with its international Memory peers. Nevertheless, we note it underperformed Micron and SK Hynix. We continue to prefer SK Hynix for Memory.</li>
<li>CES is happening now and will be wrapping up Friday. We like our Dell vs. Taiwan PC names through the CES event. TSMC will be reporting results January 18th.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan PC names have been the top losers over the recent period, after having previously been the top winners. Our Long Dell vs. Short Acer trade is doing well.
Nanya Tech was a top loser, falling along with its international Memory peers. Nevertheless, we note it underperformed Micron and SK Hynix. We continue to prefer SK Hynix for Memory.
CES is happening now and will be wrapping up Friday. We like our Dell vs. Taiwan PC names through the CES event. TSMC will be reporting results January 18th.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dell Outperforms Taiwan PC Names; TSMC Results Coming After Taiwan Election

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Finishes 2023 With A Flourish

FY 2023 revenues of ~$69.1 billion, -8.8% YoY & the first YoY decline since 2009. We foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, but expect FY2024...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dell Outperforms Taiwan PC Names; TSMC Results Coming After Taiwan Election

Taiwan PC names have gone from being top winners to top losers, while Nanya Tech underperformed compared to Micron and SK Hynix. Could Microsoft...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC Results Make Buy Story Even More Clear; Strong 2024E Guidance & Reiterates Multi-Year Growth

​TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Expect Utilization Rate to Rise with Business Recovery.

​TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

​TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Finishes 2023 With A Flourish

FY 2023 revenues of ~$69.1 billion, -8.8% YoY & the first YoY decline since 2009. We foresee Q124 revenues being down 5-10% QoQ, but expect FY2024...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Dell Outperforms Taiwan PC Names; TSMC Results Coming After Taiwan Election

​Taiwan PC names have gone from being top winners to top losers, while Nanya Tech underperformed compared to Micron and SK Hynix. Could Microsoft...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC reported strong 4Q23 results and expects over 20% 2024E sales growth. The company expects to outperform the semiconductor industry by a wide...

TSMC expects strong growth in sales for 2024, driven by high demand in HPC and AI sectors. TSMC's sales for 2024F are expected to grow in the low...

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Taiwan PC names have gone from being top winners to top losers, while Nanya Tech underperformed compared to Micron and SK Hynix. Could Microsoft...