Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>April revenue ~NT$236.02 billion, +20.9% MoM &amp; + 59.6% YoY</li>
<li>It was the company's second highest monthly revenue ever, made all the more remarkable by the fact that it occurred during its seasonally low first half year</li>
<li>Our April YoY Taiwan monthly revenue comps are flashing green across the board with just one exception, Globalwafers</li>
</ul>


April revenue ~NT$236.02 billion, +20.9% MoM &amp; + 59.6% YoY
It was the company's second highest monthly revenue ever, made all the more remarkable by the fact that it occurred during its seasonally low first half year
Our April YoY Taiwan monthly revenue comps are flashing green across the board with just one exception, Globalwafers


TSMC Surges As April Revenue Soars 60% YoY

<ul>
<li>Q224 revenues of $12.8 billion, in line with their updated May outlook, ~flat QoQ and down 1% YoY.</li>
<li>Gross margin (non-GAAP) was 38.7%, down 1.1 points YoY but down a whopping 4.8 points from the April outlook.</li>
<li>Shares tanked &gt;24% in after hours trading. What's really going on at Intel? </li>
</ul>


Q224 revenues of $12.8 billion, in line with their updated May outlook, ~flat QoQ and down 1% YoY.
Gross margin (non-GAAP) was 38.7%, down 1.1 points YoY but down a whopping 4.8 points from the April outlook.
Shares tanked &gt;24% in after hours trading. What's really going on at Intel? 


Intel Q224 Meltdown. Don't Say We Didn't Warn You...

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.</li>
<li>An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call with Elan Microelectronics management; We view the company as a Structural Long position for the AI PC upgrade cycle.
From the company's perspective, significant impact from AI PC demand will come but not until 4Q24E or 1H25E. However, supply chain excess inventory improved and prepping for upcycle.
An estimated 90% of AI PC models launched at CES 2024 use Elan's products in their design; Elan well positioned for the upcycle and entrenching its position. Maintain Structural Long.


TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.</li><li><p>I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.</p></li><li><p>For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future</p></li></ul><div data-component-name="DigestPostEmbed"><a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/chinese-evs-and-the-lagging-edge" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></div>

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my earnings preview.I have leaned bearish automotive semiconductors for a few months, and I think the call has been mostly correct.For me, the beginning of my bearishness started when I highlighted that China would try to murder the supply aspect of the market for the foreseeable future

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.</li>
<li>We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.</li>
<li>1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Dell said "AI GPU shortage issue has been resolved. The lead time has been cut from 40 weeks by the end of 2023 to 8-12 weeks or less now.
We see this news short term positive but medium term negative to AI GPU supply chain vendors but need more information to confirm if this is an inflection point.
1. Taiwan Dell got priority supply? 2. Earlier overbooking over? 3. Lead time cut by supply upside? 4. Cooling company said the same; 5. Will lead time continue to shrink?


Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC Surges As April Revenue Soars 60% YoY

April revenue ~NT$236.02 billion, +20.9% MoM & + 59.6% YoY. Second highest monthly revenue ever. April YoY Taiwan monthly comps green across the...

William Keating

Intel Q224 Meltdown. Don't Say We Didn't Warn You...

Q224 revenues $12.8 billion, in line, ~flat QoQ & down 1% YoY. GM of 38.7%, -1.1 points YoY but 4.8 points below forecast. >15% of workforce cut...

William Keating

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point? We see this lead time cut news short term positive but long term negative to AI GPU supply chain...

Andrew Lu

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TSMC Surges As April Revenue Soars 60% YoY

April revenue ~NT$236.02 billion, +20.9% MoM & + 59.6% YoY. Second highest monthly revenue ever. April YoY Taiwan monthly comps green across the...

William Keating

Intel Q224 Meltdown. Don't Say We Didn't Warn You...

Q224 revenues $12.8 billion, in line, ~flat QoQ & down 1% YoY. GM of 38.7%, -1.1 points YoY but 4.8 points below forecast. >15% of workforce cut...

William Keating

TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing

​Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Hitting the Breaks: Automotive Semiconductors

Its a quarter too soon to go dumpster diving in the automotive semiconductor industry. Another round of cuts is likely coming. Consider this my...

Fabricated Knowledge

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point? We see this lead time cut news short term positive but long term negative to AI GPU supply chain...

Andrew Lu

Elan Microelectronics is poised for growth in the AI PC upgrade cycle, with a strong position in the market and potential impact expected in late...