Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-25/nvidia-is-said-to-quietly-prepare-to-abandon-takeover-of-arm" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bloomberg reported</a> overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. </li>
<li>This was largely expected but does deprive Softbank of a source of cash to conduct its buyback. </li>
<li>It also highlights the overall negative environment for Softbank’s traditional business “strategy”.</li>
</ul>



 Bloomberg reported overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. 
This was largely expected but does deprive Softbank of a source of cash to conduct its buyback. 
It also highlights the overall negative environment for Softbank’s traditional business “strategy”.


Softbank – NVIDIA’s Abandonment of Arm and the Search for Credibility

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  </li>
<li>Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.</li>
<li>Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.</li>
</ul>


To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  
Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.
Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Last Step to Go for Siltronic (WAF GR) Mergence

<ul>
<li>In our estimate, the 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is about NT$127.6bn/47.5% and NT$136bn/47.5% respectively. </li>
<li>We forecast MediaTek to ship 4G/5G for ~355mn/220nm chipsets in 2022 respectively. </li>
<li>Besides Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi and Honor, MediaTek is shipping for a few thousand sets of Dimensity 9000 to Samsung in 1H22. </li>
</ul>


In our estimate, the 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is about NT$127.6bn/47.5% and NT$136bn/47.5% respectively. 
We forecast MediaTek to ship 4G/5G for ~355mn/220nm chipsets in 2022 respectively. 
Besides Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi and Honor, MediaTek is shipping for a few thousand sets of Dimensity 9000 to Samsung in 1H22. 


MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Preview-A Little Bit Higher in Revenue Outlook

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

<ul>
<li>CEO Hashimoto told the <em>Nikkei</em> newspaper that customers are ordering silicon wafers at higher prices before they are made, even as production capacity is being increased.</li>
<li>SEMI and TSMC announcements point to rising wafer demand for at least another two years. SUMCO's expansion plans suggest at least three years.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend buying into the current weakness for the medium to long term.</li>
</ul>


CEO Hashimoto told the Nikkei newspaper that customers are ordering silicon wafers at higher prices before they are made, even as production capacity is being increased.
SEMI and TSMC announcements point to rising wafer demand for at least another two years. SUMCO's expansion plans suggest at least three years.
We continue to recommend buying into the current weakness for the medium to long term.


SUMCO (3436 JP): CEO Describes Tight Supply, Rising Prices

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC posted results at or above the top end of its guidance ranges for 4Q21 at the revenue, GPM and OPM levels. </li>
<li>Guidance for 1Q22 was also punchy with the midpoint of revenue guidance 6.0% above consensus and mid to high 20s revenue growth guidance for the year. </li>
<li>We still suspect however that momentum could actually accelerate through the year.</li>
</ul>


TSMC posted results at or above the top end of its guidance ranges for 4Q21 at the revenue, GPM and OPM levels. 
Guidance for 1Q22 was also punchy with the midpoint of revenue guidance 6.0% above consensus and mid to high 20s revenue growth guidance for the year. 
We still suspect however that momentum could actually accelerate through the year.


Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Softbank – NVIDIA’s Abandonment of Arm and the Search for Credibility

Bloomberg reported overnight that Nvidia was moving to accept reality and give up on the Arm merger. This highlights the overall negative...

Mio Kato

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Last Step to Go for Siltronic (WAF GR) Mergence

GlobalWafers to merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960, and it...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q22 Preview-A Little Bit Higher in Revenue Outlook

In our estimate, the 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is about NT$127.6bn/47.5% and NT$136Bn/47.5% respectively. We forecast MediaTek to ship 4G/5G for ~355mn...

Patrick Liao

SUMCO (3436 JP): CEO Describes Tight Supply, Rising Prices

Tight supply and rising prices for silicon wafers points to sales growth and margin expansion for at least 2-3 years. Capacity expansion lagging...

Scott Foster

TSMC – Exceptional as Usual

TSMC guidance for 1Q22 was also punchy with the midpoint of revenue guidance 6.0% above consensus and mid to high 20s revenue growth guidance for...

Mio Kato

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