Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai beat expecations by nearly 30% but reduced 2023E sales guidance. However, the company's AI server business is expected to take market share and its EV business is developing.</li>
<li>Asustek management provided some clarity on when AI PCs might turn from dream into reality -- 3Q24E is when the company believes they will contribute significantly to sales volume.</li>
<li>Himax reported some improvement in demand from China beleaguered automotive industry and said it expects its dominant global market position for automotive display drivers to continue.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai beat expecations by nearly 30% but reduced 2023E sales guidance. However, the company's AI server business is expected to take market share and its EV business is developing.
Asustek management provided some clarity on when AI PCs might turn from dream into reality -- 3Q24E is when the company believes they will contribute significantly to sales volume.
Himax reported some improvement in demand from China beleaguered automotive industry and said it expects its dominant global market position for automotive display drivers to continue.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai AI Servers Taking Share, Asus Specifies When AI PCs Will Drive Market

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Foundry segment is on track to decline 15% YoY with no prospects of a meaningful H2 recovery</li>
<li>Inventory levels across smartphone, PC and consumer electronic supply chains remain elevated, plagued by lack-lustre end user demand. </li>
<li>At least some of the key players appear to be lowering prices but this is highly unlikely to stimulate end user demand and may actually make things worse</li>
</ul>


Foundry segment is on track to decline 15% YoY with no prospects of a meaningful H2 recovery
Inventory levels across smartphone, PC and consumer electronic supply chains remain elevated, plagued by lack-lustre end user demand. 
At least some of the key players appear to be lowering prices but this is highly unlikely to stimulate end user demand and may actually make things worse


Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>U.S. has announced new bans on PE and VC investment into key Chinese tech industries.</li>
<li>Elan Microelectronics, ChipMOS reported good results, two longs to consider as we still see upside.</li>
<li>Apple earnings short-term trades update -- We're closing out both trades, one at a loss and one roughly flat.</li>
</ul>


U.S. has announced new bans on PE and VC investment into key Chinese tech industries.
Elan Microelectronics, ChipMOS reported good results, two longs to consider as we still see upside.
Apple earnings short-term trades update -- We're closing out both trades, one at a loss and one roughly flat.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Announces New Bans on Investment into Chinese High Tech Industries

<ul>
<li>Wave of earnings this week -- AMD, Qualcomm, Apple internationally... and Delta, Advantech, Innolux, Winbond, Realtek, plus others in Taiwan.</li>
<li>We visited Micron’s A3 fab in Taiwan; SK Hynix gives strongest comments yet on Memory turn-around; Long Nanya Tech on DRAM turn-around.</li>
<li>Intel results readthrough: PC cycle improving and could be accelerated by AI-demand... We continue to see Elan Micro as a laggard play on rallying PC names.</li>
</ul>


Wave of earnings this week -- AMD, Qualcomm, Apple internationally... and Delta, Advantech, Innolux, Winbond, Realtek, plus others in Taiwan.
We visited Micron’s A3 fab in Taiwan; SK Hynix gives strongest comments yet on Memory turn-around; Long Nanya Tech on DRAM turn-around.
Intel results readthrough: PC cycle improving and could be accelerated by AI-demand... We continue to see Elan Micro as a laggard play on rallying PC names.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Taiwan Earnings Plus AMD & Apple; AI Accelerating DRAM & PC Recovery

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight.  Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64.4% of the average fund.  MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, with Saudi Arabia held underweight by -2.92%.</li>
<li>Tech moves to the top sector holding after capturing strong inflows, displacing Financials which saw heavy outflows and negative rotation.</li>
<li>TSMC, Samsung, Tencent and Alibaba are the consensus holding.  All 4 are owned by at least 70% of funds and form the backbone of most active GEM equity funds.</li>
</ul>


Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight.  Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64.4% of the average fund.  MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, with Saudi Arabia held underweight by -2.92%.
Tech moves to the top sector holding after capturing strong inflows, displacing Financials which saw heavy outflows and negative rotation.
TSMC, Samsung, Tencent and Alibaba are the consensus holding.  All 4 are owned by at least 70% of funds and form the backbone of most active GEM equity funds.


Emerging Market Funds:  Top-Down Positioning and Fund Flows Update

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Foundry heading for 15% YoY decline with no prospect of a meaningful H2 recovery. Some key players may be lowering prices. This is unlikely to...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Announces New Bans on Investment into Chinese High Tech Industries

Also, Elan Microelectronics and ChipMOS reported strong results. The two companies represent two Longs to consider, we still see upside.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Taiwan Earnings Plus AMD & Apple; AI Accelerating DRAM & PC Recovery

Wave of Taiwan earnings this week with Delta, Advantech, Innolux, Winbond, Realtek, Elan, ChipMOS plus others in Taiwan. Also -- We visited...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Emerging Market Funds: Top-Down Positioning and Fund Flows Update

Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight. Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64% of the average fund. MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, Tech...

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai AI Servers Taking Share, Asus Specifies When AI PCs Will Drive Market

Also -- According to media reports, Apple has bought all of TSMC's leading-edge 3nm capacity and may have exclusivity for this 3nm production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Foundry heading for 15% YoY decline with no prospect of a meaningful H2 recovery. Some key players may be lowering prices. This is unlikely to...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: U.S. Announces New Bans on Investment into Chinese High Tech Industries

Also, Elan Microelectronics and ChipMOS reported strong results. The two companies represent two Longs to consider, we still see upside.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Wave of Taiwan Earnings Plus AMD & Apple; AI Accelerating DRAM & PC Recovery

Wave of Taiwan earnings this week with Delta, Advantech, Innolux, Winbond, Realtek, Elan, ChipMOS plus others in Taiwan. Also -- We visited...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Emerging Market Funds: Top-Down Positioning and Fund Flows Update

Asia underweight funds LATAM overweight. Asia’s ‘big 4’, account for 64% of the average fund. MENA region suffers from a lack of ownership, Tech...

Steven Holden