Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Geopolitical shifts are impacting Taiwanese businesses in China, leading to strategic adjustments and shifts in orders to specialty IC foundries.</li><li>CHPT anticipates a surge in probe card orders in the second half of 2024, while SK Hynix expects high demand for HBM in 2025 with production nearly sold out.</li><li>Meredot's technology allows for micromobility vehicles and robots to charge wirelessly simultaneously, while Taiwan's Compal will have its first foreign CEO in the electronics industry.</li></ul>

Geopolitical shifts are impacting Taiwanese businesses in China, leading to strategic adjustments and shifts in orders to specialty IC foundries.CHPT anticipates a surge in probe card orders in the second half of 2024, while SK Hynix expects high demand for HBM in 2025 with production nearly sold out.Meredot's technology allows for micromobility vehicles and robots to charge wirelessly simultaneously, while Taiwan's Compal will have its first foreign CEO in the electronics industry.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-May-2024): Global changes affect Taiwan-China relations; business strategies evolve.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales, but GM upside 1% QoQ.   </li>
<li>Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and automotive applications are ongoing.  </li>
<li>Specifically speaking, in 2Q24 we expect to see a revival in demand, with QCOQ and MPS potentially beginning to place orders in Fab 5.</li>
</ul>


1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales, but GM upside 1% QoQ.   
Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and automotive applications are ongoing.  
Specifically speaking, in 2Q24 we expect to see a revival in demand, with QCOQ and MPS potentially beginning to place orders in Fab 5.


Vanguard (5347.TT):  1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,910.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,975mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, Eva Airways, Hon Hai, Umc, ASE, Wistron, Asustek Computer, Chunghwa Telecom.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,910.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,975mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, Eva Airways, Hon Hai, Umc, ASE, Wistron, Asustek Computer, Chunghwa Telecom.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 26th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, Eva Airways

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 26th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD85.3bn</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Umc, Wistron, Wiwynn, Wt, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Chung-Hsin, Ap Memory Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 26th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD85.3bn
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Umc, Wistron, Wiwynn, Wt, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Chung-Hsin, Ap Memory Tech.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 26th): Umc, Wistron, Wiwynn, Wt, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Chung-Hsin

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-May-2024): Global changes affect Taiwan-China relations; business strategies evolve.

Geopolitical shifts affect Taiwanese businesses in China, leading to strategic adjustments; CHPT anticipates increased probe card orders, SK Hynix...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales. Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 26th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, Eva Airways

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, Eva...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 26th): Umc, Wistron, Wiwynn, Wt, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Chung-Hsin

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Umc, Wistron, Wiwynn, Wt, TSMC, Evergreen...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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