Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> is ramping up its CoWoS capacity, with the aim of increasing new capacity by 32k wafer/month in the end of 2024F.</li>
<li>In the second half of 2024F, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> iPhone 16 will contribute to revenue from shipments.</li>
<li>The semiconductor industry is expected to rebound in 2024F, with TSMC being one of the leaders.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) is ramping up its CoWoS capacity, with the aim of increasing new capacity by 32k wafer/month in the end of 2024F.
In the second half of 2024F, the Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 will contribute to revenue from shipments.
The semiconductor industry is expected to rebound in 2024F, with TSMC being one of the leaders.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +22.9% ADR Premium is Near an All-Time High; Long Taiwan Shares vs. Short the ADR</li>
<li>UMC: 2.2% Premium; Flipped Positive From a Discount; Likely to Contract</li>
<li>ASE: +13.3%; Short the Historically High Spread at the Current Level</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +22.9% ADR Premium is Near an All-Time High; Long Taiwan Shares vs. Short the ADR
UMC: 2.2% Premium; Flipped Positive From a Discount; Likely to Contract
ASE: +13.3%; Short the Historically High Spread at the Current Level


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE

<ul>
<li>Mediatek Top Performer; Showcasing New AI Capabilities at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On; Nanya Left Out?</li>
<li>Novatek (3034.TT): It Has Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC</li>
</ul>


Mediatek Top Performer; Showcasing New AI Capabilities at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona
Memory Monitor: Competition Is Hotting Up for Key Memory Chips Nvidia Depends On; Nanya Left Out?
Novatek (3034.TT): It Has Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F</li>
<li>Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.</li>
<li>In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F
Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.
In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +17.3% Premium, High Double Digit Level Persisting Since CNY</li>
<li>UMC: -1.5% Discount, We Believe Spread Biased to Go Positive</li>
<li>ChipMOS: +0.6% Premium, Collapsed from +4.6%. Now Within Typical Range.</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +17.3% Premium, High Double Digit Level Persisting Since CNY
UMC: -1.5% Discount, We Believe Spread Biased to Go Positive
ChipMOS: +0.6% Premium, Collapsed from +4.6%. Now Within Typical Range.


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Post-CNY Spread Persisting; Why UMC Discount Could Flip Positive

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE

Investors are advised to Long TSMC's Taiwan shares vs. Short the ADR, while UMC's ADR premium has flipped positive and ASE's spread is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

Mediatek top performer as it debuts new AI capabilities at the Mobile World Congress; Competition hotting up for memory chips Nvidia depends on;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Post-CNY Spread Persisting; Why UMC Discount Could Flip Positive

TSMC maintaining a high premium, UMC is expected to shift to a positive spread, ChipMOS back within the typical range after premium collapse.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Sales Should Be Gradually Increasing QoQ in 2024F; IPhone 16 Is on Schedule.

​TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Long TSMC Taiwan Shares Vs. ADR on Historically High Spread; UMC, ASE

​Investors are advised to Long TSMC's Taiwan shares vs. Short the ADR, while UMC's ADR premium has flipped positive and ASE's spread is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Surges After Showcasing Breathtaking AI Capabilities; Novatek; Nanya

​Mediatek top performer as it debuts new AI capabilities at the Mobile World Congress; Competition hotting up for memory chips Nvidia depends on;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

​TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Post-CNY Spread Persisting; Why UMC Discount Could Flip Positive

​TSMC maintaining a high premium, UMC is expected to shift to a positive spread, ChipMOS back within the typical range after premium collapse.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC is expanding CoWoS to increase production by 32k wafers/month in 2024E, with Apple iPhone 16 contributing to sales in 2H24. Semiconductor...

Investors are advised to Long TSMC's Taiwan shares vs. Short the ADR, while UMC's ADR premium has flipped positive and ASE's spread is...

Mediatek top performer as it debuts new AI capabilities at the Mobile World Congress; Competition hotting up for memory chips Nvidia depends on;...

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

TSMC maintaining a high premium, UMC is expected to shift to a positive spread, ChipMOS back within the typical range after premium collapse.