Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>US blocks TSMC from supplying chips to China, opening up opportunities for Samsung and SMIC due to AI funding and capacity</li><li>India's Tessolve acquires German IC design house and ASE expands to Mexico, increasing market presence post-US election</li><li>Taiwan's tech controls under scrutiny amid Huawei chip controversy; TSMC to ramp up US chip production under Trump's potential second term</li></ul>

US blocks TSMC from supplying chips to China, opening up opportunities for Samsung and SMIC due to AI funding and capacityIndia's Tessolve acquires German IC design house and ASE expands to Mexico, increasing market presence post-US electionTaiwan's tech controls under scrutiny amid Huawei chip controversy; TSMC to ramp up US chip production under Trump's potential second term

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Nov-2024): US stops TSMC supply to China; Samsung, SMIC may step in.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.</li>
<li>Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.</li>
<li>TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.
Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.
TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.


TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Near the Middle of Most Recent Trading Range</li>
<li>UMC: -1.4% Discount; Short Interest in Local Shares Continues to Surge</li>
<li>ASE: +2.0% Premium; Another Example of Surging Short Interest in Local Shares</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Near the Middle of Most Recent Trading Range
UMC: -1.4% Discount; Short Interest in Local Shares Continues to Surge
ASE: +2.0% Premium; Another Example of Surging Short Interest in Local Shares


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Surging Short Interest in Local Shares of UMC and ASE

<ul>
<li>TSMC October Revenue Rises 29.2% YoY; Continued Strong Growth Despite Harder YoY Comparison</li>
<li>GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Recovery Expectation Has Been Delayed from 2H24 to 2025.</li>
<li>UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Sales Might Reduce; GM Is Down Due to Inflation and Electricity Costs.</li>
</ul>


TSMC October Revenue Rises 29.2% YoY; Continued Strong Growth Despite Harder YoY Comparison
GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Recovery Expectation Has Been Delayed from 2H24 to 2025.
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Sales Might Reduce; GM Is Down Due to Inflation and Electricity Costs.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Oct Revenue; GlobalWafers Recovery Pushed to 2025E; UMC 4Q24E Challenges

<ul>
<li>TSMC: on track to ahead of schedule to start its 2nm fabs installations. Production planed for late 2025, revenues early 2026. Side benefits from Samsung closing some Foundry capacity.</li>
<li>SK Hynix: the HBM roadmap is accelerating. HBM3e 12H seeing order surge. HBM3e 16H qualification early 2025.</li>
<li>Samsung: after the Semi profit crash in 3Q, rumors of shutting down some Foundry capacity. SK Hynix HBM news flow suggests that SK Hynix’s lead is increasing.</li>
</ul>


TSMC: on track to ahead of schedule to start its 2nm fabs installations. Production planed for late 2025, revenues early 2026. Side benefits from Samsung closing some Foundry capacity.
SK Hynix: the HBM roadmap is accelerating. HBM3e 12H seeing order surge. HBM3e 16H qualification early 2025.
Samsung: after the Semi profit crash in 3Q, rumors of shutting down some Foundry capacity. SK Hynix HBM news flow suggests that SK Hynix’s lead is increasing.


Tech News This Week: TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, AMD, Apple

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Nov-2024): US stops TSMC supply to China; Samsung, SMIC may step in.

US blocks TSMC from supplying chips to China, Samsung and SMIC could step in; Tessolve acquires German IC design house, ASE expands to Mexico,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Surging Short Interest in Local Shares of UMC and ASE

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Oct Revenue; GlobalWafers Recovery Pushed to 2025E; UMC 4Q24E Challenges

TSMC sees strong revenue growth in October, while GlobalWafers delays recovery expectations and UMC faces challenges with potential sales...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech News This Week: TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, AMD, Apple

Positive: TSMC 2nm, SK Hynix HBM roadmap accelerating. Negative: Samsung to shut down some Foundry capacity, SK Hynix lead in HBM is growing.

Nicolas Baratte

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Nov-2024): US stops TSMC supply to China; Samsung, SMIC may step in.

US blocks TSMC from supplying chips to China, Samsung and SMIC could step in; Tessolve acquires German IC design house, ASE expands to Mexico,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

​TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Surging Short Interest in Local Shares of UMC and ASE

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Oct Revenue; GlobalWafers Recovery Pushed to 2025E; UMC 4Q24E Challenges

​TSMC sees strong revenue growth in October, while GlobalWafers delays recovery expectations and UMC faces challenges with potential sales...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech News This Week: TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, AMD, Apple

Positive: ​TSMC 2nm, SK Hynix HBM roadmap accelerating. Negative: Samsung to shut down some Foundry capacity, SK Hynix lead in HBM is growing.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

TSMC sees strong revenue growth in October, while GlobalWafers delays recovery expectations and UMC faces challenges with potential sales...

Positive: TSMC 2nm, SK Hynix HBM roadmap accelerating. Negative: Samsung to shut down some Foundry capacity, SK Hynix lead in HBM is growing.