Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to Intel’s non-GAAP EPS. The stock market reacted exciting for Tower raised 42% to reach $47.07 and Intel raised with ~1.8% respectively.</li>
<li>Tower Semiconductor is emphasized on analog semiconductor specialty foundries. Namely, it’s different from TSMC, UMC and GlobalFoundries, which are focusing on digital products original, and expand into analog afterward. </li>
<li>Intel wants to march into foundry business and have to count on Tower to bring in such operation know-hows, but Intel has to tolerate a completely different system.</li>
</ul>


Transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to Intel’s non-GAAP EPS. The stock market reacted exciting for Tower raised 42% to reach $47.07 and Intel raised with ~1.8% respectively.
Tower Semiconductor is emphasized on analog semiconductor specialty foundries. Namely, it’s different from TSMC, UMC and GlobalFoundries, which are focusing on digital products original, and expand into analog afterward. 
Intel wants to march into foundry business and have to count on Tower to bring in such operation know-hows, but Intel has to tolerate a completely different system.


Tower Semiconductor (TSME.US): To Be Merged by Intel- A Fastest Way, but a Patience Test, Too.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>PT Bank Central Asia has ownership among GEM active funds has hit record highs.</li>
<li>Aggressive Growth managers account for 14 of the largest 20 positions in the stock, led by Virtus EM Growth (4.16%) and Mirae EM Great Consumer (4.07%).</li>
<li>It is the 12th most widely held stock globally and the 4th most widely held stock in the Financials sector.  Competition lies in Sberbank, CCB and Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


PT Bank Central Asia has ownership among GEM active funds has hit record highs.
Aggressive Growth managers account for 14 of the largest 20 positions in the stock, led by Virtus EM Growth (4.16%) and Mirae EM Great Consumer (4.07%).
It is the 12th most widely held stock globally and the 4th most widely held stock in the Financials sector.  Competition lies in Sberbank, CCB and Ping An Insurance.


Bank Central Asia: GEM Funds Hit Max Exposure

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the potential impact on the semiconductor supply chain if Russia invades Ukraine. Many semiconductor manufacturers rely on Russian and Ukrainian-sourced materials like neon and palladium. </li>
<li>Our guess is that the vast majority of portfolio managers are NOT likely to change their semiconductor stocks allocations in their portfolios due to concerns on the potential Russia/Ukraine conflict.</li>
<li>Palladium is mainly used to make NAND Flash memory, of which Korea and China are major producers, but fewer Taiwanese companies are engaged in this sector.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the potential impact on the semiconductor supply chain if Russia invades Ukraine. Many semiconductor manufacturers rely on Russian and Ukrainian-sourced materials like neon and palladium. 
Our guess is that the vast majority of portfolio managers are NOT likely to change their semiconductor stocks allocations in their portfolios due to concerns on the potential Russia/Ukraine conflict.
Palladium is mainly used to make NAND Flash memory, of which Korea and China are major producers, but fewer Taiwanese companies are engaged in this sector.


Potential Semiconductor Supply Chain Crisis if Russia Invades Ukraine?

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>SMIC had reported a very exciting outlook in 1Q22, and both of revenue and GM are rising up to US$1,817~1,848.7mn and 36~38% respectively, which is growing at 15~17% QoQ.</li>
<li>SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because of the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in 2022, which's lager than UMC’s US$3bn.</li>
<li>China is still 3-4 generations behind TSMC, which is a big gap to catch up with.</li>
</ul>


SMIC had reported a very exciting outlook in 1Q22, and both of revenue and GM are rising up to US$1,817~1,848.7mn and 36~38% respectively, which is growing at 15~17% QoQ.
SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because of the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in 2022, which's lager than UMC’s US$3bn.
China is still 3-4 generations behind TSMC, which is a big gap to catch up with.


SMIC (0981.HK): Raising CapEx to $5bn in 2022. Exciting News, or Fierce Competition Ahead?

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hope we could be wrong, but the outlook of 1Q22 could be a bit bearish since we believe ASE Holding (ASEH) revenue/GM will reach ~NT$165bn/19.4% and ~NT$150bn/19.5% in 4Q21/1Q22 respectively. </li>
<li>China has massive local efforts on OSAT business because of low entry barrier. In our views, China can exist very well in lower profit margin to compete.</li>
<li>The worldwide OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Testing) companies of scale are majorly centered in Asia Pacific area.</li>
</ul>


Hope we could be wrong, but the outlook of 1Q22 could be a bit bearish since we believe ASE Holding (ASEH) revenue/GM will reach ~NT$165bn/19.4% and ~NT$150bn/19.5% in 4Q21/1Q22 respectively. 
China has massive local efforts on OSAT business because of low entry barrier. In our views, China can exist very well in lower profit margin to compete.
The worldwide OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Testing) companies of scale are majorly centered in Asia Pacific area.


ASE Holding (ASX.US, 3711.TT): The Outlook of 1Q22 Could Be a Bit Bearish as Actionable

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Tower Semiconductor (TSME.US): To Be Merged by Intel- A Fastest Way, but a Patience Test, Too.

Intel wants to march into foundry business and have to count on Tower to bring in such operation and know-hows, but Intel has to tolerate a...

Patrick Liao

Bank Central Asia: GEM Funds Hit Max Exposure

Ownership in PT Bank Central Asia has hit record highs. Of the 246 active GEM funds in our analysis, 46.3% own BBCA and 40.24% are overweight the...

Steven Holden

Potential Semiconductor Supply Chain Crisis if Russia Invades Ukraine?

We discuss the potential impact on the semiconductor supply chain if Russia invades Ukraine. Many semiconductor manufacturers rely on Russian and...

Douglas Kim

SMIC (0981.HK): Raising CapEx to $5bn in 2022. Exciting News, or Fierce Competition Ahead?

SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in...

Patrick Liao

ASE Holding (ASX.US, 3711.TT): The Outlook of 1Q22 Could Be a Bit Bearish as Actionable

Hope we could be wrong, but the outlook of 1Q22 could be a bit bearish since we believe ASE Holding (ASEH) revenue/GM will reach ~NT$165bn/19.4%...

Patrick Liao

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