Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. </p>
<p>The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. </p>
<p>This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 3 years (and implemented in its current state for 17 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. </p>
<p>Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Russian internet company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a>, Indian IT Services company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN)</a>, and a return to the top 10 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup> <col> <col> <col> <col> <col> </colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 169pt;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 119pt;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 95pt;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Staples</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yandex-nv-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:414:1" rel="noopener">Yandex (YNDX US)</a> </td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">49</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> </td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/al-rajhi-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27038:1" rel="noopener">Al Rajhi Bank (RJHI AB)</a> </td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>Saudi Arabia</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magazine-luiza-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27676:1" rel="noopener">Magazine Luiza SA (MGLU3 BZ)</a> </td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hcl-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20025:1" rel="noopener">Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN)</a> </td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>India</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">83</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" style="text-align: left;">Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.</em></p>

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. 
The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. 
This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 3 years (and implemented in its current state for 17 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. 
Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Russian internet company Yandex (YNDX US), Indian IT Services company Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN), and a return to the top 10 for TSMC (2330 TT).

      


rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1

LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS) 
Consumer Staples
Korea (South)
12


2

NetEase (9999 HK) 
Communication
China
2


3

JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
10


4

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) 
Information Technology
China
4


5

Yandex (YNDX US) 
Communication
Russian Federation
49


6

New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK) 
Consumer Discretionary
China
1


7

TSMC (2330 TT) 
Information Technology
Taiwan
16


8

Al Rajhi Bank (RJHI AB) 
Financials
Saudi Arabia
33


9

Magazine Luiza SA (MGLU3 BZ) 
Consumer Discretionary
Brazil
15


10

Hcl Technologies (HCLT IN) 
Information Technology
India
83


Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas



As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>What’s Original?</h3>
<p>In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.</p>

What’s Original?
In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Samsung announced near-record semiconductor revenues in its third quarter on 28 October 2021.  Management indicated that this strength, that has bolstered the firm's overall revenues, seems likely to continue into 2022.</p>

Samsung announced near-record semiconductor revenues in its third quarter on 28 October 2021.  Management indicated that this strength, that has bolstered the firm's overall revenues, seems likely to continue into 2022.

Samsung Reports Near-Record Semi Revenues With Strong Outlook

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>TSMC offers an intriguing prospect due to its utter dominance of a high growth sector and high, stable margins. However, valuations are elevated and the sector itself appears ripe for a correction in our view with a significant possibility of an inventory glut.</p>

TSMC offers an intriguing prospect due to its utter dominance of a high growth sector and high, stable margins. However, valuations are elevated and the sector itself appears ripe for a correction in our view with a significant possibility of an inventory glut.

TSMC – 2022 Could Be Great but What After?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Intel’s CEO Pat Gelsinger is a religious man. In the 2000s, he wrote “Balancing Your Family, Faith, and Work” and “The Juggling Act: Bringing Balance to Your Faith, Family, and Work.” If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible.  Like believing that Intel, who will have grown revenues at a 3.7% CAGR from 2011–2021 (inclusive of acquiring MobileEye and Altera), has lost its way on process manufacturing, and is hemorrhaging market share to AMD and ARM-based CPUs is poised to grow revenues at a 10–12% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. We are not believers.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Screening for GEMs: November 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these...

Mio Kato

Samsung Reports Near-Record Semi Revenues With Strong Outlook

Like its competitors Micron and SK hynix, Samsung has profited well from memories and promises to continue along this path, perhaps to replicate...

Jim Handy

TSMC – 2022 Could Be Great but What After?

TSMC offers an intriguing prospect due to its utter dominance of a high growth sector and high, stable margins despite elevated valuations and...

Mio Kato

Intel 3Q21: Delusions of a Madman

If one is an Intel investor today, you too need to have deep faith and believe that miracles are possible. Like believing Intel is poised to grow...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)