Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.</li>
<li>Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
<li>ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.</li>
</ul>


A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.


Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Strong start to 2024 as majority of GEM funds outperform: Average returns of 2.8% beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF by 0.66%, with 63% of funds outperforming.</li>
<li>Technology Sector Drives Returns: Technology sector the key contributor to returns, with TSMC accounting for just over half of total fund returns on the quarter.</li>
<li>Active vs Passive: Q1 performance adds to GEM active fund's impressive record of outperformance. 5-year average GEM fund returns are +7.4% ahead of the benchmark iShares MSCI EM ETF.</li>
</ul>


Strong start to 2024 as majority of GEM funds outperform: Average returns of 2.8% beat the iShares MSCI EM ETF by 0.66%, with 63% of funds outperforming.
Technology Sector Drives Returns: Technology sector the key contributor to returns, with TSMC accounting for just over half of total fund returns on the quarter.
Active vs Passive: Q1 performance adds to GEM active fund's impressive record of outperformance. 5-year average GEM fund returns are +7.4% ahead of the benchmark iShares MSCI EM ETF.


GEM Funds Outperform in Q1.  Long-Term Active Vs Passive Performance Compelling.

<ul>
<li>Strong start to 2024 as majority outperform: Average returns of 3.3% beat the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 66% of funds outperforming.</li>
<li>Technology Sector Drives Returns:  Taiwan and South Korean Tech contribute the most to returns, whilst China Financials and Healthcare drag on performance.</li>
<li>HDFC Bank and AIA Group costly: Both stocks are among the top overweights among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Poor performance this quarter cost managers ~ 50bps in losses versus the benchmark.</li>
</ul>


Strong start to 2024 as majority outperform: Average returns of 3.3% beat the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 66% of funds outperforming.
Technology Sector Drives Returns:  Taiwan and South Korean Tech contribute the most to returns, whilst China Financials and Healthcare drag on performance.
HDFC Bank and AIA Group costly: Both stocks are among the top overweights among Asia Ex-Japan investors.  Poor performance this quarter cost managers ~ 50bps in losses versus the benchmark.


Asia Ex-Japan Q1 Performance & Attribution:  Strong Start for Active Managers

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Apple supply chain names are falling due concerns about weak iPhone shipments. Global PC shipments returned to growth as per IDC data.</li>
<li>TSMC and ASML results this week and will be cruical for the market. Can TSMC rally again to achieve new highs or will it continue trading lower?</li>
<li>Nanya Technology sees DRAM Industry pricing rising through 2024E; but is underperforming financially.</li>
</ul>


Apple supply chain names are falling due concerns about weak iPhone shipments. Global PC shipments returned to growth as per IDC data.
TSMC and ASML results this week and will be cruical for the market. Can TSMC rally again to achieve new highs or will it continue trading lower?
Nanya Technology sees DRAM Industry pricing rising through 2024E; but is underperforming financially.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Suppliers Slump on IPhone; PC Volumes Back to Growth; TSMC & ASML Results

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 12th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,077.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD473mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Hon Hai, ASE, Wiwynn, Eva Airways, Evergreen Marine, Wistron, Quanta Computer, Wt, Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 12th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,077.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD473mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Hon Hai, ASE, Wiwynn, Eva Airways, Evergreen Marine, Wistron, Quanta Computer, Wt, Mediatek.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 12th): TSMC, Hon Hai, ASE, Wiwynn, Eva Airways, Evergreen Marine

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

GEM Funds Outperform in Q1. Long-Term Active Vs Passive Performance Compelling.

Q1 performance adds to GEM active fund's impressive record of outperformance. 5-year average GEM fund returns are +7.4% ahead of the benchmark...

Steven Holden

Asia Ex-Japan Q1 Performance & Attribution: Strong Start for Active Managers

Strong start to 2024 as majority outperform: Average returns of 3.3% beat the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 66% of funds outperforming.

Steven Holden

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Suppliers Slump on IPhone; PC Volumes Back to Growth; TSMC & ASML Results

Apple supply chain names are dropping due to weak iPhone shipments, while global PC shipments are growing. TSMC and ASML results will be crucial...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 12th): TSMC, Hon Hai, ASE, Wiwynn, Eva Airways, Evergreen Marine

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Hon Hai, ASE, Wiwynn, Eva Airways,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Commodities Testing Resistance; Buys in Global Defensives (Staples, Utilities, Telecomm), Commodity...

Vermilion Research

GEM Funds Outperform in Q1. Long-Term Active Vs Passive Performance Compelling.

Q1 performance adds to GEM active fund's impressive record of outperformance. 5-year average GEM fund returns are +7.4% ahead of the benchmark...

Steven Holden

Asia Ex-Japan Q1 Performance & Attribution: Strong Start for Active Managers

Strong start to 2024 as majority outperform: Average returns of 3.3% beat the iShares Asia Ex-Japan benchmark, with 66% of funds outperforming.

Steven Holden

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple Suppliers Slump on IPhone; PC Volumes Back to Growth; TSMC & ASML Results

​Apple supply chain names are dropping due to weak iPhone shipments, while global PC shipments are growing. TSMC and ASML results will be crucial...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 12th): TSMC, Hon Hai, ASE, Wiwynn, Eva Airways, Evergreen Marine

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Hon Hai, ASE, Wiwynn, Eva Airways,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Apple supply chain names are dropping due to weak iPhone shipments, while global PC shipments are growing. TSMC and ASML results will be crucial...