Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Softbank stock closed up 14.5% today vs. the close on Monday as the market reacted positively to its sale of TMUS shares to Deutsche Telekom. At one point the stock was up as much as 21.5% over two days. Such a large move seems unwarranted given the news, while positive, was not especially impactful. Is this simply a short squeeze given the continuous selling of the stock since May or is the market now expecting more buybacks?

Softbank stock closed up 14.5% today vs. the close on Monday as the market reacted positively to its sale of TMUS shares to Deutsche Telekom. At one point the stock was up as much as 21.5% over two days. Such a large move seems unwarranted given the news, while positive, was not especially impactful. Is this simply a short squeeze given the continuous selling of the stock since May or is the market now expecting more buybacks?

Softbank – Still No Buyback Means Still Little Reason to Buy

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Softbank and DT have restructured their June 2020 agreement on the sale of TMUS shares resulting in a similar value for Softbank’s TMUS stake but better optionality on the equity albeit with lower cash proceeds. That doesn’t justify a 10% move in Softbank shares today but with cash coming in markets may see this as a precursor to a buyback announcement. Alternatively, there has been such a lack of good news this quarter that any positive developments may be enough to generate some excitement. It was enough to narrow the discount from 47% to 41%, a level last seen in June but it may struggle to hold that level unless more good news follows.

Softbank and DT have restructured their June 2020 agreement on the sale of TMUS shares resulting in a similar value for Softbank’s TMUS stake but better optionality on the equity albeit with lower cash proceeds. That doesn’t justify a 10% move in Softbank shares today but with cash coming in markets may see this as a precursor to a buyback announcement. Alternatively, there has been such a lack of good news this quarter that any positive developments may be enough to generate some excitement. It was enough to narrow the discount from 47% to 41%, a level last seen in June but it may struggle to hold that level unless more good news follows.    

Softbank Group - DT Call Option Adjustment Includes Strategic Partnership but Less Cash

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>T-Mobile delivered an excellent quarter surpassing expectations across the board.</li><li>The company delivered a strong net subscriber growth in postpaid connections as well as service revenue growth.</li><li>The management intends to continue to lead the industry in postpaid phone growth year-to-date while adding another 627,000 postpaid phone net in Q2.</li></ul>

T-Mobile delivered an excellent quarter surpassing expectations across the board.The company delivered a strong net subscriber growth in postpaid connections as well as service revenue growth.The management intends to continue to lead the industry in postpaid phone growth year-to-date while adding another 627,000 postpaid phone net in Q2.

<ul><li>T-Mobile has nearly reached the target price from our previous report after yet another stellar result surpassing Wall Street expectations.</li><li>T-Mobile has consistently maintained its low pricing and its consumer-friendly policies for the past few years and is clearly leading the 5G deployment race over rivals, Verizon and AT&T.</li><li>We give the stock a ‘Hold’ rating and a revised target price after its recent runup.</li></ul>

T-Mobile has nearly reached the target price from our previous report after yet another stellar result surpassing Wall Street expectations.T-Mobile has consistently maintained its low pricing and its consumer-friendly policies for the past few years and is clearly leading the 5G deployment race over rivals, Verizon and AT&T.We give the stock a ‘Hold’ rating and a revised target price after its recent runup.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Three things caught our eye this first week of 2021: eBay, Amazon, and the spectrum auction.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Three things caught our eye this first week of 2021: eBay, Amazon, and the spectrum auction.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 1/8/2021

United States

T-Mobile US, Inc. is one of four national wireless carriers in the US. The company was created as the combination of T-Mobile USA and MetroPCS.

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T Mobile Us Inc (TMUS US)

Softbank – Still No Buyback Means Still Little Reason to Buy

Softbank has surged on news of its TMUS stake sale to DT but is this simply a short squeeze given the continuous selling of the stock since May or...

Mio Kato

Softbank Group - DT Call Option Adjustment Includes Strategic Partnership but Less Cash

Softbank and DT have restructured an agreement on the sale of TMUS shares. That doesn’t justify the 10% move in Softbank shares but with cash...

Kirk Boodry

T-Mobile US Inc. - Investment Thesis

T-Mobile delivered an excellent quarter surpassing expectations across the board. The company delivered a strong net subscriber growth in postpaid...

Baptista Research

T-Mobile - Invt Thesis

T-Mobile has nearly reached the target price from our previous report after yet another stellar result surpassing Wall Street...

Baptista Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 1/8/2021

This week we highlight eBay's new tool to drive online advertising adoption, Amazon's further foray into logistics, and the $90B spent in the...

Aaron Gabin

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