Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.</li>
<li>In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. </li>
<li>Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. </li>
</ul>


Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.
In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. 
Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. 


Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

<ul>
<li>Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.</li>
<li>Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.</li>
<li>General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.</li>
</ul>


Newly released data in Australia suggests worsening earnings for banks in the coming 1-2 quarters at least, from both less credit volume and higher credit costs.
Retail sales figures are just out with the YoY change continuing to grind lower, now at only 1.45% with implications for credit card transactions and consumer underlying strength.
General Business Situation survey for next 6 months is now lower than its trough in year 2020. New median house price data shows negative growth for 3 consecutive quarters.


Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.</li>
<li>There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.
There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU).


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New release shows surge in Australia residential mortgage non-performing exposures QoQ</li>
<li>From March 2023 to June 2023 these NPLs rose by 10.5% and <span>this is not an annualized rate</span>
</li>
<li>Its total NZ non-performing loans rose from AUD671m to AUD741m or 10.4% QoQ</li>
</ul>


New release shows surge in Australia residential mortgage non-performing exposures QoQ
From March 2023 to June 2023 these NPLs rose by 10.5% and this is not an annualized rate

Its total NZ non-performing loans rose from AUD671m to AUD741m or 10.4% QoQ


Westpac - Non-Performing Exposures in Australia Mortgages Surge in June & NZ Non-Performing Loans

National Australia Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We turn to granular Pillar 3 disclosure of NAB seeing divergent moves in PD buckets</li>
<li>Its worst PD buckets are seeing sharp rise, while best buckets are falling, flat-ish</li>
<li>LT credit cost data, PD buckets, timely CBA data, suggests higher provision costs</li>
</ul>


We turn to granular Pillar 3 disclosure of NAB seeing divergent moves in PD buckets
Its worst PD buckets are seeing sharp rise, while best buckets are falling, flat-ish
LT credit cost data, PD buckets, timely CBA data, suggests higher provision costs


NAB - Pillar 3 Data Shows Worst PD Buckets Highest Growth, Best Buckets Down, Risk To Credit Costs

Australia

Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG) is an Australian-based international general insurance group with operations in Australia, New Zealand, and Asia. The Group provides a range of personal and commercial insurance products, primarily motor vehicle and home insurance.

QBE Insurance Group Limited is an insurance company which underwrites most forms of commercial and industrial insurance policies, as well as individual policies. QBE also manages Lloyds syndicates and provides investment management services. The Company provides its services both domestically and internationally.

Medibank Private Limited offers private health care coverage for hospital and ancillary services. The Company offers a range of health insurance products such as health, travel, pet, and life coverage to overseas students and visitors. Medibank serves customers throughout Australia.

Steadfast Group Ltd is a provider of services to broker businesses across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The Company has equity interests in insurance broker businesses, underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

AUB Group Limited provides financial services. The Company offers equity-based risk management, insurance broking, and specialist underwriting agencies, as well as focuses on risk solutions for clients and strengthening our partners risk advisory capabilities.

NIB Holdings Ltd. offers health insurance products.  Depending on the specific product, the Company covers ambulance costs; and reimburses for costs not covered by Medicare including dental, optical, physiotherapy and natural therapies; and some hospitalization costs.

PSC Insurance Group Limited provides insurance brokerage services. The Company offers services such as risk management, workers compensation, business protection, worth insurance, claims settlements. PSC Insurance Group conducts its business globally.

Latitude Group Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides personal, commercial, and business insurance products and services, as well as offers loans and credit card solutions. Latitude Group Holdings serves individuals, governments, municipalities, and businesses.

Generation Development Group Limited operates as an investment company. The Company provides tax effective investment solutions and development capital to financial sector businesses. Generation Development Group serves customers in Australia.

ASX Ltd is a demutualized company which operates Australia's primary national stock exchange and equity derivatives market. The ASX operates markets for equities, derivatives, fixed-interest securities and capital-raising for unlisted companies using advanced computer systems for both trading and settlement.

New China Life Insurance Company Limited provides life insurance in local and foreign currencies, acts as an insurance agent, provides checks, claims and insurance consulting. The Company's main products include life insurance, accident insurance, health insurance products and services.

The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited, through its subsidiaries, offers a range of property and casualty insurance products. The Company also offers asset management services for a variety of customers throughout China.

Samsung Life Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers life and health insurance services. Samsung Life Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Erie Indemnity Company is the management company for the Erie Insurance Exchange. The Company is also involved in the property and casualty insurance business through its wholly-owned subsidiaries and through its management of Flagship City Insurance Company. Erie Indemnity sells auto, home, life and business insurance in the United States.

Everest Re Group, Ltd. provides reinsurance to property and casualty insurers in the United States and international markets.  The Company also provides property and casualty insurance to policyholders in the United States and Canada.  In addition, Everest Re offers excess and surplus lines insurance in the United States.

Loews Corporation is a diversified holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, is involved in a variety of businesses including commercial property-casualty insurance, offshore drilling, natural gas exploration and production, operation of natural gas pipeline systems, and the operation of hotels and resorts.

CNA Financial Corporation operates as an insurance holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial property and casualty coverages such as risk management, information services, warranty, and claims administration. CNA Financial serves clients throughout the United States.

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. is a global provider of reinsurance and insurance. The Company's business primarily consists of catastrophe reinsurance, specialty reinsurance, and individual risk business.

Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated provides reinsurance services. The Company offers life and health related reinsurance products and financial solutions. Reinsurance Group of America serves customers globally.

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

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Suncorp (SUN AU)

Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

New insolvencies data is weakest in construction sector, but also there is major deterioration in accommodations, food, retail trade. The HFD...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - New Data Suggests Weaker Profit, Primarily from Loan Volume & Credit Costs

New data is of concern for bank profit. Housing prices, business index, retail sales, suggest a worsening backdrop. Banks' credit costs in the most...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Boss Resources, Emerald Resources, Codan, Judo Capital, and Helia Group are currently the highest-ranked ASX 200 potential ADDs. I expect these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Westpac - Non-Performing Exposures in Australia Mortgages Surge in June & NZ Non-Performing Loans

Surging Australia residential mortgage non-performing loans in June QoQ and also in total NZ loans. Stressed construction ratio is also rising...

Daniel Tabbush

NAB - Pillar 3 Data Shows Worst PD Buckets Highest Growth, Best Buckets Down, Risk To Credit Costs

Pillar 3 data at NAB shows the worst PD buckets seeing rising EAD while the best PD buckets are flat or falling. LT credit costs are around 2-3x...

Daniel Tabbush

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