Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

National Australia Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NAB holds significantly more maturing debt in the coming year than its largest 3 peer banks in Australia and also more than the 3 banks in Singapore, by comparison</li>
<li>The bank has grown its business loans aggressively, which can see lumpy bad loans in a poor economy, with high unseasoned loans, yet its HoH credit costs were flat</li>
<li>CRE loans are meaningful at NAB, adding another risk to maturing debt at the top of the rate cycle with what appears to optimistic credit costs in recent results</li>
</ul>


NAB holds significantly more maturing debt in the coming year than its largest 3 peer banks in Australia and also more than the 3 banks in Singapore, by comparison
The bank has grown its business loans aggressively, which can see lumpy bad loans in a poor economy, with high unseasoned loans, yet its HoH credit costs were flat
CRE loans are meaningful at NAB, adding another risk to maturing debt at the top of the rate cycle with what appears to optimistic credit costs in recent results


NAB - Maturing Debt AUD40bn | At Top of Rate Cycle | With High Unseasoned Loans, CRE Loans

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope Steel, Endeavour, Suncorp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope Steel, Endeavour, Suncorp.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 27th): Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope Steel

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.  </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.  
The Origin Energy (ORG AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E, Metcash.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 6th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E, Metcash.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 6th): BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E, Metcash

<ul>
<li>The results for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-queensland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16606:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU)</a> are illustrative of risks for the mainstream banks in Australia and market expectations</li>
<li>Even with almost all residential mortgage loans, BOQ's credit costs rose from AUD13m to AUD71m YoY and Pillar 3 data shows mortgage NPLs up nearly 10% in past 2 months</li>
<li>Net interest income only +6% YoY and -8% HoH, with operating costs +8% YoY and fee income down, there is nothing core holding the P&amp;L together</li>
</ul>


The results for Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) are illustrative of risks for the mainstream banks in Australia and market expectations
Even with almost all residential mortgage loans, BOQ's credit costs rose from AUD13m to AUD71m YoY and Pillar 3 data shows mortgage NPLs up nearly 10% in past 2 months
Net interest income only +6% YoY and -8% HoH, with operating costs +8% YoY and fee income down, there is nothing core holding the P&amp;L together


BOQ - Illustrative of Australia Bank Risks Even for Nearly Pure Mortgage Lender and Mkt Expectations

Australia

Insurance Australia Group Limited (IAG) is an Australian-based international general insurance group with operations in Australia, New Zealand, and Asia. The Group provides a range of personal and commercial insurance products, primarily motor vehicle and home insurance.

QBE Insurance Group Limited is an insurance company which underwrites most forms of commercial and industrial insurance policies, as well as individual policies. QBE also manages Lloyds syndicates and provides investment management services. The Company provides its services both domestically and internationally.

Medibank Private Limited offers private health care coverage for hospital and ancillary services. The Company offers a range of health insurance products such as health, travel, pet, and life coverage to overseas students and visitors. Medibank serves customers throughout Australia.

Steadfast Group Ltd is a provider of services to broker businesses across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The Company has equity interests in insurance broker businesses, underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

AUB Group Limited provides financial services. The Company offers equity-based risk management, insurance broking, and specialist underwriting agencies, as well as focuses on risk solutions for clients and strengthening our partners risk advisory capabilities.

NIB Holdings Ltd. offers health insurance products.  Depending on the specific product, the Company covers ambulance costs; and reimburses for costs not covered by Medicare including dental, optical, physiotherapy and natural therapies; and some hospitalization costs.

PSC Insurance Group Limited provides insurance brokerage services. The Company offers services such as risk management, workers compensation, business protection, worth insurance, claims settlements. PSC Insurance Group conducts its business globally.

Latitude Group Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides personal, commercial, and business insurance products and services, as well as offers loans and credit card solutions. Latitude Group Holdings serves individuals, governments, municipalities, and businesses.

Generation Development Group Limited operates as an investment company. The Company provides tax effective investment solutions and development capital to financial sector businesses. Generation Development Group serves customers in Australia.

ASX Ltd is a demutualized company which operates Australia's primary national stock exchange and equity derivatives market. The ASX operates markets for equities, derivatives, fixed-interest securities and capital-raising for unlisted companies using advanced computer systems for both trading and settlement.

New China Life Insurance Company Limited provides life insurance in local and foreign currencies, acts as an insurance agent, provides checks, claims and insurance consulting. The Company's main products include life insurance, accident insurance, health insurance products and services.

The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited, through its subsidiaries, offers a range of property and casualty insurance products. The Company also offers asset management services for a variety of customers throughout China.

Samsung Life Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers life and health insurance services. Samsung Life Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Erie Indemnity Company is the management company for the Erie Insurance Exchange. The Company is also involved in the property and casualty insurance business through its wholly-owned subsidiaries and through its management of Flagship City Insurance Company. Erie Indemnity sells auto, home, life and business insurance in the United States.

Everest Re Group, Ltd. provides reinsurance to property and casualty insurers in the United States and international markets.  The Company also provides property and casualty insurance to policyholders in the United States and Canada.  In addition, Everest Re offers excess and surplus lines insurance in the United States.

Loews Corporation is a diversified holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, is involved in a variety of businesses including commercial property-casualty insurance, offshore drilling, natural gas exploration and production, operation of natural gas pipeline systems, and the operation of hotels and resorts.

CNA Financial Corporation operates as an insurance holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial property and casualty coverages such as risk management, information services, warranty, and claims administration. CNA Financial serves clients throughout the United States.

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. is a global provider of reinsurance and insurance. The Company's business primarily consists of catastrophe reinsurance, specialty reinsurance, and individual risk business.

Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated provides reinsurance services. The Company offers life and health related reinsurance products and financial solutions. Reinsurance Group of America serves customers globally.

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

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Suncorp (SUN AU)

NAB - Maturing Debt AUD40bn | At Top of Rate Cycle | With High Unseasoned Loans, CRE Loans

NAB has more maturity debt than large peers, which can mean worse NIM impact when refinancing at the top of the rate cycle. Business loan growth...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 27th): Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope Steel

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Liontown, Bluescope...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

I expect Boss Resources (BOE AU) to replace Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) at the close of 3rd November 2023. There could be 17.6mn shares to buy in BOE...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 6th): BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E, Metcash

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Liontown, ANZ, Suncorp, Domino'S Pizza E,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

BOQ - Illustrative of Australia Bank Risks Even for Nearly Pure Mortgage Lender and Mkt Expectations

Results today show the rampant deterioration in credit metrics, causing profit to fall 70% YoY, with other factors also at play. Read-through to...

Daniel Tabbush

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