Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for house price growth (new homes and the secondary market) for 70 major cities in December 2023 indicates further declines </li>
<li>Aggregate figures and averages may not reflect the 'on-the-ground' feel, but the relative performance of cities should give a good indication of city-level dynamics</li>
<li>Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price growth</li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for house price growth (new homes and the secondary market) for 70 major cities in December 2023 indicates further declines 
Aggregate figures and averages may not reflect the 'on-the-ground' feel, but the relative performance of cities should give a good indication of city-level dynamics
Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price growth


China Official House Price Growth Rates Turn More Negative In December 2023

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for December points to further weakness in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis</li>
<li>But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (March-December) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales</li>
<li>Land sales /acquisitions figures, however, show a clear improvement on multiple (non-NBS) metrics, especially for major 13 developers </li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for December points to further weakness in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (March-December) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales
Land sales /acquisitions figures, however, show a clear improvement on multiple (non-NBS) metrics, especially for major 13 developers 


China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for December 2023

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 12th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunny Optical Technology Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Yuexiu Property </a></li><li><a href='/entities/vedanta-resources-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Vedanta Resources</a></li><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/adani-ports-special-economic-zone-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Sunny Optical Technology GroupYuexiu Property Vedanta ResourcesTata Motors LtdAdani Ports & Special Economic Zoneand more...

China

Sunac China Holdings Limited is a real estate development company.

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Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 12-18, 2024

China property developers in distress (Jan 12-18, 2024) - deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant...

Robert Ciemniak

China Official House Price Growth Rates Turn More Negative In December 2023

China House Prices: Chengdu, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Sanya finished with the relatively strongest growth rates year-on-year for the new home price...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for December 2023

Today's NBS data for December points to further weakness in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most...

Robert Ciemniak

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 12th): CNOOC, Tencent

Highlight: We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong Kong connect flows for CNOOC, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Weekly Wrap - 12 Jan 2024

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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