Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

This month, we undertake a study of movements in the Lucror Analytics Risk Assessment (LARA) for issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index over the last five years. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  This month, we undertake a study of movements in the Lucror Analytics Risk Assessment (LARA) for issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index over the last five years.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - LARA Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance to be implemented on 10 June.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> remains suspended, it could be deleted from the index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> could be added to the index.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> trackers will need to buy around 2.45% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a>'s real float. Short interest is over 17 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>



Lenovo (992 HK) could replace Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the June rebalance to be implemented on 10 June.
If Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) remains suspended, it could be deleted from the index and Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) could be added to the index.
Passive Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) trackers will need to buy around 2.45% of Lenovo (992 HK)'s real float. Short interest is over 17 days of ADV.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Lenovo Could Replace Hansoh Pharma; Great Wall In/Sunac Out?

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>First Pacific Co</a></li><li><a href='/entities/yanzhou-coal-mining-company-limited-h' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H</a></li><li><a href='/entities/indika-energy-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Indika Energy</a></li><li><a href='/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Lippo Karawaci</a></li><li><a href='/entities/agile-property-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Agile Property Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:First Pacific CoYanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited HIndika EnergyLippo KarawaciAgile Property Holdingsand more...

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hong Kong health expert downplays city’s Covid fatality rate</li><li>Shanghai offers support for importing Covid drugs and vaccines as it battles outbreak</li><li>Distressed Chinese developer Sunac sweetens proposed bond extension plan</li></ul>

Hong Kong health expert downplays city’s Covid fatality rateShanghai offers support for importing Covid drugs and vaccines as it battles outbreakDistressed Chinese developer Sunac sweetens proposed bond extension plan

CX Daily: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. </li>
<li>Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.</li>
</ul>


Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. 
Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

China

Sunac China Holdings Limited is a real estate development company.

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Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)

Asia HY Monthly - LARA Transition Study - Lucror Analytics

This month, we undertake a study of movements in the Lucror Analytics Risk Assessment (LARA) for issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index over the...

Lucror Analytics

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Lenovo Could Replace Hansoh Pharma; Great Wall In/Sunac Out?

Lenovo could replace Hansoh Pharma in the HSCEI in June. Sunac could be deleted if it remains suspended till 20 May, and Great Wall Motor added....

Brian Freitas

Weekly Wrap - 01 Apr 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

CX Daily: China’s Battle to Stabilize Its Economy

Hong Kong health expert downplays city’s Covid fatality rate; Shanghai offers support for importing Covid drugs and vaccines as it battles outbreak

Caixin Global

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

We estimate a fair value of 240.73 DIPS for the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures after adjusting for CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com. We would be sellers of the...

Brian Freitas

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