Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bangladesh, India's <strong>2nd largest trading partner</strong> in Asia is under a political crisis leading to instability and uncertainty. </li>
<li>Companies impacted by Bangladesh Crisis in India across sectors and across market caps listed below. </li>
<li>There might be short-term impact, but in long run, there would not be much impact as overall exposure is not that much.</li>
</ul>


Bangladesh, India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia is under a political crisis leading to instability and uncertainty. 
Companies impacted by Bangladesh Crisis in India across sectors and across market caps listed below. 
There might be short-term impact, but in long run, there would not be much impact as overall exposure is not that much.


Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akums-drugs-and-pharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40915:1" rel="noopener">Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN)</a> raised around US$222m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR679/share.</li>
<li>Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) raised around US$222m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR679/share.
Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about demand and trading dynamics.


Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO Trading - Strong Demand and a Decent Margin of Safety

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q1FY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%.</li>
<li>Record high quarterly revenue in the U.S. market, double-digit revenue growth in India branded prescription business, and continued strong momentum in South Africa drove overall performance.</li>
<li>Cipla is well-positioned for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth through FY27. Sitting on a robust cash balance of INR90B, Cipla is eyeing on M&amp;A. Valuation still looks reasonable.</li>
</ul>


In Q1FY25, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%.
Record high quarterly revenue in the U.S. market, double-digit revenue growth in India branded prescription business, and continued strong momentum in South Africa drove overall performance.
Cipla is well-positioned for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth through FY27. Sitting on a robust cash balance of INR90B, Cipla is eyeing on M&amp;A. Valuation still looks reasonable.


Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

India

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals for domestic and international distribution. The Company's pharmaceutical portfolio includes drugs in the areas of diabetes, cardiology, neurology, psychiatry and  gastroenterology.

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Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO Trading - Strong Demand and a Decent Margin of Safety

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) raised around US$222m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR679...

Ethan Aw

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

In Q1FY25, Cipla posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%, ahead...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

​Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO Trading - Strong Demand and a Decent Margin of Safety

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) raised around US$222m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR679...

Ethan Aw

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Starts FY25 On Firm Note; EBITDA Margin Ahead of Guidance Range

In Q1FY25, Cipla posted 7% YoY revenue growth to INR66.9B. EBITDA increased 26% YoY to INR17.2B, leading to 154bps margin expansion to 25.6%, ahead...

Tina Banerjee

Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...