'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/715/original/2020-01-31_05-07-06.png?1580414848" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115715"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - Thre were 194 results and 64 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 85 larger-cap companies reporting results, 18 saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while 10 saw improvements of more than 25%. Our Results Sore tumbled 22bps to 0.77, the second-lowest Score in three years while the Forecast/Revision Score lost almost all of yesterday's gain and is 9bps away from a three-year low.</p>

Source • Japan Analytics30TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 194 results and 64 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 85 larger-cap companies reporting results, 18 saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while 10 saw improvements of more than 25%. Our Results Sore tumbled 22bps to 0.77, the second-lowest Score in three years while the Forecast/Revision Score lost almost all of yesterday's gain and is 9bps away from a three-year low.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 30th January ▲ 8316•6702•8604 ▼ 6770•9064•4661

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as there is no significant additional damage, we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity - especially within EM. We see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment and optimism in the short-term.</p>

Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as there is no significant additional damage, we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity - especially within EM. We see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment and optimism in the short-term.

<p style="text-align: justify;">Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.</p>

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: left;">The short notional in the market for the week ended 30 August is US$24.65bn with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>,  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-gr" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP)</a> . Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Amazia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/extreme-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5311:1">Extreme Co Ltd (6033 JP)</a>, while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirait-holdings-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7034:1">Mirait Holdings (1417 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-trust-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20246:1">J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP)</a>. </p><p style="text-align: left;">The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-dainippon-pharma-co" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmos-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-payment-gateway-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1">GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1">Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumco-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:379:1">Sumco Corp (3436 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1"></a></p><p style="text-align: left;">Sectorally, new short positions were built in Consumer Staples and Health Care, while shorts were covered in Communication Services, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary.</p>

The short notional in the market for the week ended 30 August is US$24.65bn with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP),  and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP) . Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Amazia, Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) and Extreme Co Ltd (6033 JP), while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Katakura Industries (3001 JP), Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP), Mirait Holdings (1417 JP) and J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP). The largest increases in short notional over the week were Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP), Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP), Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP) and GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP) while shorts were covered in Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP), Sumco Corp (3436 JP), M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Rakuten Inc (4755 JP).   Sectorally, new short positions were built in Consumer Staples and Health Care, while shorts were covered in Communication Services, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/686/original/2019-02-02_09-34-42.png?1549067763" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77686"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
<strong>Note:</strong> The Results &amp; Revision Score is the average of our Results Score and Forecasts/Revision Score and is updated daily for each company and then cap-weighted-aggregated into Peer Groups, Sectors and the Market Composite. Both scores have a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Results Score is calculated quarterly, using the most recent eight quarters of company data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measures the rate, degree and consistency of change for each metric. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted.</div><p><strong>DRIP, DRIP, DRIP</strong> - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a 'real-time' measure of the state of, and the outlook for, listed Japanese corporations. As the scoring methodology includes earnings momentum 'factors', the data series can be a useful leading indicator of forward earnings. The correlation with the market over the last four years is 0.578, with the indicator leading more often than lagging.   Since peaking on 16th November 2017, the Results &amp; Revisions Score has fallen by 62% and has now returned to the level of May 2017. In the last ten years, the score has only been lower than at present one-third of the time - mostly during the fiscal year ended March 2017 when the total market value averaged ¥550t, close to the December 2018 low. <strong>If we are to repeat the relatively-mild cyclical downturn of 2016, the Results &amp; Revision Score will turn negative in May of this year, and the 25th December 2018 low will be retested.</strong></p><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/701/original/2019-02-02_14-11-25.png?1549084295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77701"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>PAST THE PEAK</strong> - Our earnings indicator peaked 14 months ago, two months ahead of the market's high point on 26th January 2018. It now appears that aggregate reported earnings, as well as aggregate company forecasts for the current year, are now turning decisively lower after nine quarters of uninterrupted growth. Forecast Net Income for the current year is now 7% below the high point in trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Net Income from this cycle, which was reached two months ago. Operating Income is, as usual, 'lagging' and forecasts are still marginally ahead of TTM. The TTM all-market price-earnings ratio reached 11.5 times on Christmas Day, which will prove to be the cycle low point.<strong> We expect the return to median levels, to be achieved more through lower 'E' as opposed to a higher 'P'. </strong> <strong>Mr Market is currently implying that Japanese corporate profits are due to fall by 23% on average from the cycle peak, or by 30% if we are to revisit the December low-point. </strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/746/original/2019-02-03_07-23-31.png?1549146223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77746"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE FIRST CUT</strong> - 23% of listed companies reported their most recent quarterly earnings results in the last two weeks. For these companies, TTM revenues grew by 5.1% year-on-year, but only by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest qoq growth rate in over a year. TTM Operating Income is now 0.8% lower than the TTM total of one year ago and declined by 4.4% qoq. Operating margins fell by 49bps year-on-year.  Current forecasts for this group of companies imply 3.1% yoy top line growth, but only 0.3% compared to the quarter just declared. For Operating Income, the rates are -2.0% and 0.6%, reflecting the normal TTM-to-forecast 'lag'. <strong>Corporate Japan's profits are now rolling over and will be in a 'recession' by the fiscal year-end.  </strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/722/original/2019-02-02_18-25-46.png?1549099572" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77722"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTERREGNUM</strong> - Our bear market rally has paused to look at and digest the earnings-announcement news flow and will likely be trendless for the next few weeks as 'good' reactions offset 'bad'.<strong> In due course, we expect the preponderance of negative momentum to tip the scales.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/724/original/2019-02-02_18-41-12.png?1549100508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77724"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TORAKU @110</strong> - The <em>Toraku</em> advance-decline indicator has continued to recover and is within ten points of the overbought zone, which has only been breached once since the market peak of January 2018.<strong> This signal is 'amber' and could be 'red' by the end of next week. </strong></p><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>OUTLOOK &amp; RECOMMENDATIONS</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios.</strong></li>
<li><strong>The equity market decline at the end of last year was well in advance of the underlying trends in the economy and corporate profits; the recent 10% rally has corrected that imbalance. Nevertheless, the global cycle has turned down sharply, and many economies will be in a recession by the end of this quarter. We expect Japanese corporate earnings to follow suit. <em> </em></strong></li>
<li><strong>Although some of the coming decline in aggregate earnings has been well-discounted, our Results &amp; Revision Score has yet to turn negative. Accordingly, we expect the market to retest the December 2018 low, probably in May when the FY2020 forecasts are announced and our score starts 'seeing red'.</strong></li>
<li><strong>In the near term and despite the rally in the more cyclical sectors, we continue to favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short Banks and Non-Bank Finance.</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3700" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/454" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1">Lixil (5938 JP)</a> (yes, again), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/752" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1">Cyberagent (4751 JP)</a>.</p>

Source: Japan Analytics
Note: The Results &amp; Revision Score is the average of our Results Score and Forecasts/Revision Score and is updated daily for each company and then cap-weighted-aggregated into Peer Groups, Sectors and the Market Composite. Both scores have a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Results Score is calculated quarterly, using the most recent eight quarters of company data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measures the rate, degree and consistency of change for each metric. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted.DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a 'real-time' measure of the state of, and the outlook for, listed Japanese corporations. As the scoring methodology includes earnings momentum 'factors', the data series can be a useful leading indicator of forward earnings. The correlation with the market over the last four years is 0.578, with the indicator leading more often than lagging.   Since peaking on 16th November 2017, the Results &amp; Revisions Score has fallen by 62% and has now returned to the level of May 2017. In the last ten years, the score has only been lower than at present one-third of the time - mostly during the fiscal year ended March 2017 when the total market value averaged ¥550t, close to the December 2018 low. If we are to repeat the relatively-mild cyclical downturn of 2016, the Results &amp; Revision Score will turn negative in May of this year, and the 25th December 2018 low will be retested.
Source: Japan Analytics
PAST THE PEAK - Our earnings indicator peaked 14 months ago, two months ahead of the market's high point on 26th January 2018. It now appears that aggregate reported earnings, as well as aggregate company forecasts for the current year, are now turning decisively lower after nine quarters of uninterrupted growth. Forecast Net Income for the current year is now 7% below the high point in trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Net Income from this cycle, which was reached two months ago. Operating Income is, as usual, 'lagging' and forecasts are still marginally ahead of TTM. The TTM all-market price-earnings ratio reached 11.5 times on Christmas Day, which will prove to be the cycle low point. We expect the return to median levels, to be achieved more through lower 'E' as opposed to a higher 'P'.  Mr Market is currently implying that Japanese corporate profits are due to fall by 23% on average from the cycle peak, or by 30% if we are to revisit the December low-point. Source: Japan AnalyticsTHE FIRST CUT - 23% of listed companies reported their most recent quarterly earnings results in the last two weeks. For these companies, TTM revenues grew by 5.1% year-on-year, but only by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest qoq growth rate in over a year. TTM Operating Income is now 0.8% lower than the TTM total of one year ago and declined by 4.4% qoq. Operating margins fell by 49bps year-on-year.  Current forecasts for this group of companies imply 3.1% yoy top line growth, but only 0.3% compared to the quarter just declared. For Operating Income, the rates are -2.0% and 0.6%, reflecting the normal TTM-to-forecast 'lag'. Corporate Japan's profits are now rolling over and will be in a 'recession' by the fiscal year-end.  Source: Japan AnalyticsINTERREGNUM - Our bear market rally has paused to look at and digest the earnings-announcement news flow and will likely be trendless for the next few weeks as 'good' reactions offset 'bad'. In due course, we expect the preponderance of negative momentum to tip the scales.Source: Japan AnalyticsTORAKU @110 - The Toraku advance-decline indicator has continued to recover and is within ten points of the overbought zone, which has only been breached once since the market peak of January 2018. This signal is 'amber' and could be 'red' by the end of next week. 
OUTLOOK &amp; RECOMMENDATIONS

We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios.
The equity market decline at the end of last year was well in advance of the underlying trends in the economy and corporate profits; the recent 10% rally has corrected that imbalance. Nevertheless, the global cycle has turned down sharply, and many economies will be in a recession by the end of this quarter. We expect Japanese corporate earnings to follow suit.  
Although some of the coming decline in aggregate earnings has been well-discounted, our Results &amp; Revision Score has yet to turn negative. Accordingly, we expect the market to retest the December 2018 low, probably in May when the FY2020 forecasts are announced and our score starts 'seeing red'.
In the near term and despite the rally in the more cyclical sectors, we continue to favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short Banks and Non-Bank Finance.

In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on Anritsu (6754 JP), Alps Alpine (6770 JP), SanBio (4592 JP), Lixil (5938 JP) (yes, again), Fanuc (6954 JP), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) , and Cyberagent (4751 JP).

Japan Fortnightly Update: Drip, Drip, Drip...

Japan

Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co., Ltd. mainly manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals for human and veterinary use. The Company also produces and sells livestock feeds, food additives, and chemical products, as well as conducts clinical pathology tests for animals. Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma conducts businesses across worldwide.

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Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 30th January ▲ 8316•6702•8604 ▼ 6770•9064•4661

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