Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.</li>
<li>Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. </li>
<li>Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.</li>
</ul>


Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. 
Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.


Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, we looked at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quantumpharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40369:1" rel="noopener">QuantumPharm (QUP HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webtoon-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43652:1" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US)</a> this week.</li>
<li>On the placement front, there were a few deals across Hong Kong, Australia and Japan.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, we looked at Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU), QuantumPharm (QUP HK) and Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) this week.
On the placement front, there were a few deals across Hong Kong, Australia and Japan.


ECM Weekly (10th June 2024) - Webtoon, Shift Up, QuantumPharm, Guzman, Kakaopay, Telix, Yankuang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 29 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$17.4bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


MS&AD Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

<ul>
<li>Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. </li>
<li>The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.</li>
<li>Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.</li>
</ul>


Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. 
The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.
Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.


Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. </li>
<li>The stock popped 7% the next day to ¥1302, on the highest volume since the covid crash, hesitated a day, then powered almost 20% higher through the end of March. </li>
<li>Today, Mitsui Fudosan responded with an Amendment to their Plan out to 2030. It has a higher dividend, a share buyback, higher EPS target growth, and higher ROE target. But...</li>
</ul>


9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. 
The stock popped 7% the next day to ¥1302, on the highest volume since the covid crash, hesitated a day, then powered almost 20% higher through the end of March. 
Today, Mitsui Fudosan responded with an Amendment to their Plan out to 2030. It has a higher dividend, a share buyback, higher EPS target growth, and higher ROE target. But...


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.  Sumitomo Mitsui Card Co., SMBC Leasing Co., and The Japanese Research Institute, Ltd. joined the Group in Feb., 2003. The Company manages financial operations for its subsidiaries.  The Group provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

ECM Weekly (10th June 2024) - Webtoon, Shift Up, QuantumPharm, Guzman, Kakaopay, Telix, Yankuang

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

MS&AD Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Along with its results announcement today, MS&AD announced that it will accelerate its cross-shareholding unwind and is targeting a sale of around...

Sumeet Singh

Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Japan bank's domestic credit growth is stronger than most others in developed Asia, and the pace of growth is far stronger now compared with early...

Daniel Tabbush

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Mitsui Fudosan (8801) Responds to Elliott with Buyback, Amended Long-Term Plan

Elliott Management bought Mitsui Fudosan. Argued for asset sales and buybacks. Mitsui Fudosan has responded with plans for asset sales and...

Travis Lundy

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