Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese Banks have had a good run recently. From the day before the BOJ changed the 10yr yield target in December in its YCC programme to today, +30% vs TOPIX.</li>
<li>The question is how that is spread out. There are lots of banks. Some are cheaper than others. Some are better than others. Can we draw conclusions to trade better?</li>
<li>If you are looking at Japanese Banks to play a change in BOJ policy when Governor Kuroda's term ends shortly, there are definitely conclusions one can draw. I offer comments.</li>
</ul>


Japanese Banks have had a good run recently. From the day before the BOJ changed the 10yr yield target in December in its YCC programme to today, +30% vs TOPIX.
The question is how that is spread out. There are lots of banks. Some are cheaper than others. Some are better than others. Can we draw conclusions to trade better?
If you are looking at Japanese Banks to play a change in BOJ policy when Governor Kuroda's term ends shortly, there are definitely conclusions one can draw. I offer comments.


Thinking About Japanese Banks - Go Big, Go Small, Go Insurance

<ul>
<li>A Nikkei article today suggests FUNDING SECURED for JIP's deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>. Noises 2wks ago suggested this timing for a deal, but there are no terms yet.</li>
<li>The syndicate, led by SMBC and Mizuho, "has agreed to ¥1.2trln in loans." The two leads take two-thirds but details suggest not all is as smooth as the headline suggests.</li>
<li>The remaining questions are whether the major holders will take the bait at that price, and/or whether JIC would come in over the top. I expect yes to the first.</li>
</ul>


A Nikkei article today suggests FUNDING SECURED for JIP's deal for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). Noises 2wks ago suggested this timing for a deal, but there are no terms yet.
The syndicate, led by SMBC and Mizuho, "has agreed to ¥1.2trln in loans." The two leads take two-thirds but details suggest not all is as smooth as the headline suggests.
The remaining questions are whether the major holders will take the bait at that price, and/or whether JIC would come in over the top. I expect yes to the first.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> has had a "long" wait to get its approvals, but EC and China are in, any remaining should be in shortly. </li>
<li>Yesterday, as a footnote on the SG Holdings offering document, there was a comment about SG Holdings selling shares. This was likely more good corporate governance hygiene than warning.</li>
<li>Shares are down this morning. I'd expect final approvals and launch quite soon. I would therefore look to buy the dip on flow - block or not.</li>
</ul>



Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) has had a "long" wait to get its approvals, but EC and China are in, any remaining should be in shortly. 
Yesterday, as a footnote on the SG Holdings offering document, there was a comment about SG Holdings selling shares. This was likely more good corporate governance hygiene than warning.
Shares are down this morning. I'd expect final approvals and launch quite soon. I would therefore look to buy the dip on flow - block or not.


Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) - Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry on 12th Jun 2022.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry on 12th Jun 2022.


Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry Now, Before 20% Is Released Later in the Year

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> announced results today. Operating Income +0.8%, Operating Earnings +45.9%, Net Profit +45.5% to ¥1.13trln. </li>
<li>The forecast for Mar23 is for a "target" of Net Income of &gt;¥1trln. The DPS for Mar23 is set at ¥32 vs ¥28 last year and ¥25 the year before.</li>
<li>And MUFG announced both the delay of the closing of Union Bancorp sale to calendar H2, and a big buyback of ¥300bn. </li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) announced results today. Operating Income +0.8%, Operating Earnings +45.9%, Net Profit +45.5% to ¥1.13trln. 
The forecast for Mar23 is for a "target" of Net Income of &gt;¥1trln. The DPS for Mar23 is set at ¥32 vs ¥28 last year and ¥25 the year before.
And MUFG announced both the delay of the closing of Union Bancorp sale to calendar H2, and a big buyback of ¥300bn. 


MUFG (8306 JP) - BigBank BigBuyback But A Bit Pricey Vs SMFG

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Thinking About Japanese Banks - Go Big, Go Small, Go Insurance

The BOJ is set for a change in policy shortly. It could come before Kuroda-san leaves, or after, and we don't yet know whether Kishida-san will go...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Secured!

An article after the close suggests major banks are now agreed to supply JPY 1.2trln of loans, plus possibly 200bn of working capital commitment....

Travis Lundy

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) - Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow

Hitachi Transport should be in final stages. The two tough approvals were done a month ago. The Russia sub should not be a factor (it could be sold...

Travis Lundy

Net Protections Holding IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry Now, Before 20% Is Released Later in the Year

Net Protections Holdings, a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m in its Japan IPO in Dec 2021. The lockup on one set of...

Sumeet Singh

MUFG (8306 JP) - BigBank BigBuyback But A Bit Pricey Vs SMFG

MUFG reported earnings, and a buyback. MUFG has reported a buyback after about half of the fiscal halves in the past few years. This one, like last...

Travis Lundy

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