Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There are two sides to every story. The Possible Positive Counterpoint to a negative opinion on Toyota's proposed issuance of so-called "Model AA" shares is twofold.&nbsp;<ol><li>It could be that the intentions are highly honourable, but were in fact communicated badly (or not communicated). Toyota has recently been making efforts to attract individual shareholders. They may have decided they need to make a quantum leap. There would be a positive outcome if that were indeed the intention. Details below.</li><li>If a company issues long-term un-trade-able capital, and buys back trade-able capital, it goes without saying that the people who buy want to buy, and the people who sell want to sell. The company is simply proposing to broker the deal. When the buyers cannot re-sell what they bought for a very long time, this removes potential overhang. &nbsp;This aspect is not negative. It is tough to argue otherwise.</li></ol>&nbsp;

There are two sides to every story. The Possible Positive Counterpoint to a negative opinion on Toyota's proposed issuance of so-called "Model AA" shares is twofold.&nbsp;It could be that the intentions are highly honourable, but were in fact communicated badly (or not communicated). Toyota has recently been making efforts to attract individual shareholders. They may have decided they need to make a quantum leap. There would be a positive outcome if that were indeed the intention. Details below.If a company issues long-term un-trade-able capital, and buys back trade-able capital, it goes without saying that the people who buy want to buy, and the people who sell want to sell. The company is simply proposing to broker the deal. When the buyers cannot re-sell what they bought for a very long time, this removes potential overhang. &nbsp;This aspect is not negative. It is tough to argue otherwise.&nbsp;

'Model AA' Shares - The possible counterpoint

After the close on Tuesday April 28, 2015, Toyota <a href="http://www.toyota-global.com/investors/stock_information_ratings/share_2015/pdf/commonstock_20150428_01.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a>&nbsp;the board had resolved to submit to shareholders a resolution to partially amend&nbsp;the company's Articles of Incorporation to allow the company to allow issue a new series of shares, which they have called "Model AA Shares". The announcement noted a first tranche of 500 billion yen, and future tranches.&nbsp;The securities will be unlisted, non-transferable, require buying an embedded put from the company itself, and result in a mini&nbsp;"death spiral" impact on the common shares.&nbsp;My first reaction was "Huh?"After reading all the materials a second, third, and fourth time - in both Japanese and English - given my 15+yrs of looking at the microstructure of Japanese markets, special situations, and unusual security issuances, my reaction has evolved to a more considered, and evolved&nbsp;"Huh?"CONCLUSIONS<ul><li>The explanations do not make a great deal of sense.&nbsp;</li><li>The economics do not make a great deal of sense, nor do they match what should be the desired 'long-term investor' commitment.&nbsp;</li><li>If one looks at the best and highest purpose of such a structure, one must conclude it might be meant for a different purpose than Toyota discloses.</li><li>And if one takes a more skeptical view of Japanese issuance practices, this has to be seen as a slightly bearish development.</li><li>If Toyota is issuing this now as a way to gain acceptance of issuing it to a different group of shareholders than it says, that is bad.</li><li>If Toyota is wasting its time and energy for minimal benefit, that is bad.&nbsp;Toyota does not need to save 34bn yen in dividend payments over 5yrs when they start with 6 trillion yen in cash, and will generate another 10 trillion yen plus in cash over the next 5 years.&nbsp;</li></ul>

After the close on Tuesday April 28, 2015, Toyota announced&nbsp;the board had resolved to submit to shareholders a resolution to partially amend&nbsp;the company's Articles of Incorporation to allow the company to allow issue a new series of shares, which they have called "Model AA Shares". The announcement noted a first tranche of 500 billion yen, and future tranches.&nbsp;The securities will be unlisted, non-transferable, require buying an embedded put from the company itself, and result in a mini&nbsp;"death spiral" impact on the common shares.&nbsp;My first reaction was "Huh?"After reading all the materials a second, third, and fourth time - in both Japanese and English - given my 15+yrs of looking at the microstructure of Japanese markets, special situations, and unusual security issuances, my reaction has evolved to a more considered, and evolved&nbsp;"Huh?"CONCLUSIONSThe explanations do not make a great deal of sense.&nbsp;The economics do not make a great deal of sense, nor do they match what should be the desired 'long-term investor' commitment.&nbsp;If one looks at the best and highest purpose of such a structure, one must conclude it might be meant for a different purpose than Toyota discloses.And if one takes a more skeptical view of Japanese issuance practices, this has to be seen as a slightly bearish development.If Toyota is issuing this now as a way to gain acceptance of issuing it to a different group of shareholders than it says, that is bad.If Toyota is wasting its time and energy for minimal benefit, that is bad.&nbsp;Toyota does not need to save 34bn yen in dividend payments over 5yrs when they start with 6 trillion yen in cash, and will generate another 10 trillion yen plus in cash over the next 5 years.&nbsp;

'Model AA' Shares - Good Governance Gone Bad?

Japan

Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. sells lumber and wood-related construction materials.  The Company constructs and markets a variety of homes, including custom-built wooden houses, and also manufactures and distributes high-value added wood-based products.  Sumitomo Forestry also maintains a significant amount of Japan's forests.

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Sumitomo Forestry (1911 JP)

'Model AA' Shares - The possible counterpoint

There are two sides to every story. The Possible Positive Counterpoint to a negative opinion on Toyota's proposed issuance of so-called "Model AA"...

Travis Lundy

'Model AA' Shares - Good Governance Gone Bad?

After the close on Tuesday April 28, 2015, Toyota announced the board had resolved to submit to shareholders a resolution to partially amend the...

Travis Lundy

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