Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Flummoxed: A competitor hosted a virtual conference with the management of the State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI]. To say the call was a disappointment would be an understatement. Nothing meaningful was stated on credit quality, and for some reason management is “comfortable” with capital; and *Reserve Challenges Should Lead To LARGE Capital Raise: Net new NPLs increased INR 193.2 bn or 65.9% on an annualized versus – accelerating over the awful FY 3Q21 result of INR 145.7 bn and 41.6%.  These figures are quite troublesome - even for an Indian SOE bank. Given the capital challenges even prior to the Yes Bank (YES.IN) risk, SBI needs to prepare for additional losses. By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 tn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap.

* Flummoxed: A competitor hosted a virtual conference with the management of the State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI]. To say the call was a disappointment would be an understatement. Nothing meaningful was stated on credit quality, and for some reason management is “comfortable” with capital; and *Reserve Challenges Should Lead To LARGE Capital Raise: Net new NPLs increased INR 193.2 bn or 65.9% on an annualized versus – accelerating over the awful FY 3Q21 result of INR 145.7 bn and 41.6%.  These figures are quite troublesome - even for an Indian SOE bank. Given the capital challenges even prior to the Yes Bank (YES.IN) risk, SBI needs to prepare for additional losses. By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 tn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap. 

State Bank of India – Lights On, No One Home

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

India was in a banking crisis before 2020 and the impact of the current crisis is far worse than in most other countries. Quarterly data of banks reveals dramatic deterioration in credit metrics during March 2021.

India was in a banking crisis before 2020 and the impact of the current crisis is far worse than in most other countries. Quarterly data of banks reveals dramatic deterioration in credit metrics during March 2021. 

India Financials

Saumya Agarwal

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI, in its June meeting, has kept the policy rates unchanged and decided to continue with the accommodative monetary stance, till the time needed. It has also expanded the scope of the Resolution 2.0 framework for the MSME and individual borrowers impacted by the Covid. Both these decisions are favorable and should help mitigate the stress of the small borrowers

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI, in its June meeting, has kept the policy rates unchanged and decided to continue with the accommodative monetary stance, till the time needed. It has also expanded the scope of the Resolution 2.0 framework for the MSME and individual borrowers impacted by the Covid. Both these decisions are favorable and should help mitigate the stress of the small borrowers

The RBI Radar: Soft Borrowing Costs + Widened Scope of Resolution, to Boost Recovery

*Are We Even Looking At The Same Bank As Management: A competitor hosted a recent conference call with the CFO of HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN) [HDFCB] to give a post-quarter update. On the conference call, however, management instead decided to focus on numerous items not having to do with credit, the elephant in the room. HDFCB management has more than a tendency to put a completely unwarranted positive spin on nearly every aspect of its business  -  completely ignoring the medium-term challenges; and*Watch Your Credit: We calculate that net new NPLs actually increased INR 49.2 bn or 130.4% on an annualized basis which is quite worrisome – especially considering the challenges at HDFCB’s NBFC subsidiary, HDB Financial Services.  By our calculation, loss reserves are currently short by nearly INR 242 bn or nearly a half year of core operating results.

*Are We Even Looking At The Same Bank As Management: A competitor hosted a recent conference call with the CFO of HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN) [HDFCB] to give a post-quarter update. On the conference call, however, management instead decided to focus on numerous items not having to do with credit, the elephant in the room. HDFCB management has more than a tendency to put a completely unwarranted positive spin on nearly every aspect of its business  -  completely ignoring the medium-term challenges; and*Watch Your Credit: We calculate that net new NPLs actually increased INR 49.2 bn or 130.4% on an annualized basis which is quite worrisome – especially considering the challenges at HDFCB’s NBFC subsidiary, HDB Financial Services.  By our calculation, loss reserves are currently short by nearly INR 242 bn or nearly a half year of core operating results.

*Poor Result: Bank of Baroda (BOB.IN) [BOB] reported a FY 4Q21 loss of INR 10.5 bn, quite a reversal of fortune from the gains of INR 10.6 bn in FY 3Q21. Several factors drove BOB’s poor performance: a) net interest income declined INR 3.7 bn (5.0%) linked quarter driven by NIM expansion of 5 bp to 2.72% while the loan book only grew 0.2%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 1.5 bn (4.4%) despite further weakness in lending; an operating expense increase of INR 3.9 bn (7.3%) driven primarily by other costs which increased INR 3.1 bn (13.8%) – pushing BOB’s C/I ratio 3.2% higher to 63.2%; and the write-down of INR 33.1 bn in un-utilized DTAs; and*Poor Reserve Cover: Further, net new NPLs remain elevated at INR 13.5 bn or 11.2% annualized. Keep in mind, a bank with over 8% of NPLs is typically considered an insolvent institution. By our calculation, however, BOB’s reserves still remain light by INR 293 bn or nearly 12 quarters of pre-tax earnings.

*Poor Result: Bank of Baroda (BOB.IN) [BOB] reported a FY 4Q21 loss of INR 10.5 bn, quite a reversal of fortune from the gains of INR 10.6 bn in FY 3Q21. Several factors drove BOB’s poor performance: a) net interest income declined INR 3.7 bn (5.0%) linked quarter driven by NIM expansion of 5 bp to 2.72% while the loan book only grew 0.2%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 1.5 bn (4.4%) despite further weakness in lending; an operating expense increase of INR 3.9 bn (7.3%) driven primarily by other costs which increased INR 3.1 bn (13.8%) – pushing BOB’s C/I ratio 3.2% higher to 63.2%; and the write-down of INR 33.1 bn in un-utilized DTAs; and*Poor Reserve Cover: Further, net new NPLs remain elevated at INR 13.5 bn or 11.2% annualized. Keep in mind, a bank with over 8% of NPLs is typically considered an insolvent institution. By our calculation, however, BOB’s reserves still remain light by INR 293 bn or nearly 12 quarters of pre-tax earnings.

Bank of Baroda – No Light In This Tunnel

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

State Bank of India – Lights On, No One Home

STATE BANK OF INDIA: A competitor hosted a disappointing call with management. By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 tn...

Thomas J. Monaco

India Banks – Still In Crisis?

India was in a banking crisis before 2020 and the current crisis is worse than in many other countries. Unlike most regions, India latest quarterly...

Daniel Tabbush

The RBI Radar: Soft Borrowing Costs + Widened Scope of Resolution, to Boost Recovery

The RBI decision to continue with the accommodative monetary stance and expanding the scope of Resolution, for MSME and individual borrowers,...

Saumya Agarwal

HDFC Bank – Rose Colored Glasses

HDFC BANK: A competitor hosted a recent conference call with HDFCB. It chose to focus on numerous items not having to do with credit. The longer...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank of Baroda – No Light In This Tunnel

BANK OF BARODA: BOB reported a FY 4Q21 loss of INR 10.5 bn. Net new NPLs remain elevated at 11.2% annualized. BOB’s reserves still remain light by...

Thomas J. Monaco

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