Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New macro data for India suggests a strong economic backdrop</li>
<li>Granular corporate data shows improving financial metrics, positive for banks</li>
<li>SBIN is an interesting state-bank alternative to ICICI, considering market capitalization</li>
</ul>


New macro data for India suggests a strong economic backdrop
Granular corporate data shows improving financial metrics, positive for banks
SBIN is an interesting state-bank alternative to ICICI, considering market capitalization


Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

<ul>
<li>Theft from SBI's high security coin depot of Rs 110mn by insiders</li>
<li>Contents of coin deposts like currency chests are the property of the central bank</li>
<li>Theft reveals lax security protocols at SBI which raises concerns of operational risk management</li>
</ul>


Theft from SBI's high security coin depot of Rs 110mn by insiders
Contents of coin deposts like currency chests are the property of the central bank
Theft reveals lax security protocols at SBI which raises concerns of operational risk management


Not Small Change: The Theft from SBI’s Coin Depot Should Set Alarm Bells Ringing

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-June 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends were mixed</li>
<li>The key positive trend to end-June was the declining cost of risk, boosting post-provision profitability; nonetheless, the prospect of worsening delinquency could drive a reversal in NPA provision charges</li>
<li>We believe HDFC Bank can best face credit quality deterioration; optically cheap State Bank of India is exposed to higher provisioning needs, as is ICICI Bank</li>
</ul>


Our profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-June 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends were mixed
The key positive trend to end-June was the declining cost of risk, boosting post-provision profitability; nonetheless, the prospect of worsening delinquency could drive a reversal in NPA provision charges
We believe HDFC Bank can best face credit quality deterioration; optically cheap State Bank of India is exposed to higher provisioning needs, as is ICICI Bank


Indian Banks Screener: Credit Quality Turning?

<ul>
<li>Typically net interest margins and loan volume are what matter most for banks</li>
<li>ICICI is showing strength in both core financial metrics, but also in credit costs</li>
<li>Of the large 3 banks in India, ICICI may continue to show the best marginal deltaCI</li>
</ul>


Typically net interest margins and loan volume are what matter most for banks
ICICI is showing strength in both core financial metrics, but also in credit costs
Of the large 3 banks in India, ICICI may continue to show the best marginal deltaCI


<ul>
<li>Major theft of Rs 342 mn ($4.3mn) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> 's currency chest near Mumbai</li>
<li>Apparently a single ICICI Bank staff responsible and shockingly had sole access to the currency chest </li>
<li>Reflects extremely poorly on ICICI Bank's currency chest security protocols and processes and heightens concerns of reputational and operational risk at the bank</li>
</ul>


Major theft of Rs 342 mn ($4.3mn) in ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) 's currency chest near Mumbai
Apparently a single ICICI Bank staff responsible and shockingly had sole access to the currency chest 
Reflects extremely poorly on ICICI Bank's currency chest security protocols and processes and heightens concerns of reputational and operational risk at the bank


Major Theft in ICICI Bank’s Currency Chest Heightens Concerns of Poor Controls

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

India Banks - Better Macro, Better Micro

New macro data suggests a very strong India economy. Corporate financials show major improvements which has positive implications for banks. SBI is...

Daniel Tabbush

Not Small Change: The Theft from SBI’s Coin Depot Should Set Alarm Bells Ringing

The thefts from SBI’s coin depot and ICICI Bank’s currency chest highlight concerns regarding operational risk, and the strong possibility of...

Hemindra Hazari

Indian Banks Screener: Credit Quality Turning?

Indian bank showed broadly positive results to 1QFY23; yet we believe that the credit quality cycle may soon turn; rising delinquency will hit SBI...

Victor Galliano

India Banks - Solid Strength at ICICI

There are vast differences amongst the largest 3 banks in India, that favor ICICI. Margin expansion, LDR expansion, net interest income growth, and...

Daniel Tabbush

Major Theft in ICICI Bank’s Currency Chest Heightens Concerns of Poor Controls

Major theft at ICICI Bank heightens concerns of poor security protocols reflecting on operational risk management and reputational risk at the bank.

Hemindra Hazari

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