Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our Indian bank profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-December 2022, continued in a constructive trend</li>
<li>This is reflected in NPA ratios and cost of risk trends; but Indian banks have to face increased NPA headwinds, especially if funding and liquidity tightens around Adani Group companies</li>
<li>We remain negative on State Bank of India, especially given the concerns around the Adani Group, and also ICICI Bank; we remain positive on higher quality HDFC Bank</li>
</ul>


Our Indian bank profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-December 2022, continued in a constructive trend
This is reflected in NPA ratios and cost of risk trends; but Indian banks have to face increased NPA headwinds, especially if funding and liquidity tightens around Adani Group companies
We remain negative on State Bank of India, especially given the concerns around the Adani Group, and also ICICI Bank; we remain positive on higher quality HDFC Bank


Indian Banks Screener to December-End 2022: Credit Risks Rising

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.</li><li>The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   </li><li>In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  </li></ul>

It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Dec 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-health-allied-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34199:1" rel="noopener">Star Health (STARHEAL IN)</a> (SHAI), the largest private health and retail health insurance company in India, raised around US$851m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>SHAI insured 20.5m people in FY21. SHAI primarily offers retail health insurance which accounted for 87.9% of its FY21 GWP. Individual agents accounted for 97% of its FY21 GWP.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In Dec 2021, Star Health (STARHEAL IN) (SHAI), the largest private health and retail health insurance company in India, raised around US$851m in its India IPO.
SHAI insured 20.5m people in FY21. SHAI primarily offers retail health insurance which accounted for 87.9% of its FY21 GWP. Individual agents accounted for 97% of its FY21 GWP.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


Star Health IPO Lockup - Owned by Financial Investors, US$3.0bn Worth Shares Are Well in the Money

Equity Capital Markets

Five Star Business Finance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/five-star-business-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35238:1" rel="noopener">Five Star Business Finance (0958461D IN)</a> raised around US$190m in its India IPO. </li>
<li>Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Five Star Business Finance (0958461D IN) raised around US$190m in its India IPO. 
Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Five-Star Business IPO Trading - One of the Best Anchor Books but Worst Overall Demand

<ul>
<li>Our Indian bank profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-September 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends generally softened</li>
<li>The solid macro-economic backdrop has supported credit quality to September-end, as the declining NPA ratios and cost of risk show; yet India may be approaching peak level for its macro-indicators</li>
<li>Much good news is discounted by the macro and easy credit conditions; we are negative on State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, but we remain positive on HDFC Bank</li>
</ul>


Our Indian bank profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-September 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends generally softened
The solid macro-economic backdrop has supported credit quality to September-end, as the declining NPA ratios and cost of risk show; yet India may be approaching peak level for its macro-indicators
Much good news is discounted by the macro and easy credit conditions; we are negative on State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, but we remain positive on HDFC Bank


Indian Banks Screener to September-End 2022: Credit Delinquency in Check, for Now

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

Indian Banks Screener to December-End 2022: Credit Risks Rising

Profitability and credit quality trends were generally positive to CYE2022, but credit risks are rising with concerns due to the Adani Group; stick...

Victor Galliano

Head Fakes

The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Star Health IPO Lockup - Owned by Financial Investors, US$3.0bn Worth Shares Are Well in the Money

In Dec 2021, Star Health (STARHEAL IN) (SHAI), the largest private health and retail health insurance company in India, raised around US$851m in...

Sumeet Singh

Five-Star Business IPO Trading - One of the Best Anchor Books but Worst Overall Demand

Five Star Business Finance raised around US$190m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the deal demand and trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Indian Banks Screener to September-End 2022: Credit Delinquency in Check, for Now

Strong macro and easy credit conditions have supported Indian banks' returns, yet India's macro prospects may be close to peaking; we are negative...

Victor Galliano

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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