Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> merger will result in capping and funding changes on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> constituents.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.</li>
</ul>


The HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) / HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) merger will result in capping and funding changes on the Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) constituents.
We estimate one-way turnover of around 8.4% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m (US$266m) at the time of merger implementation.
The impact in terms of ADV is less than 1x on all stocks, but the impact in terms of delivery volume is higher than 1x on a few stocks.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>All eyes were on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> listing this week. It didn't disappoint, neither did <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials.</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> pulled off one of the largest placements so far in 2023, despite being net cash.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
All eyes were on Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) listing this week. It didn't disappoint, neither did Merdeka Battery Materials.


Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) pulled off one of the largest placements so far in 2023, despite being net cash.


ECM Weekly (23rd Apr 2023) - Rakuten Bank, Merdeka, ZJLD, Mankind, Lalatech, IMotion, Anta, KIT

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>While sentiment took a hit as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>'s pulled its IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) </a>cutting its price range leaves more upside on the table for investors.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials (2012725D IJ)</a> concluded its US$586m IPO bookbuild in Indonesia, with decent upside waiting for the longer-term investor. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
While sentiment took a hit as Trial Holdings (5882 JP)'s pulled its IPO, Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) cutting its price range leaves more upside on the table for investors.

Merdeka Battery Materials (2012725D IJ) concluded its US$586m IPO bookbuild in Indonesia, with decent upside waiting for the longer-term investor. 


ECM Weekly (10th Apr 2023) - Rakuten Bank, Merdeka Battery, ZJLD, Socionext, Trial Holdings

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s restructuring news caused some exiciting in the IPO market this week, with Hong Kong filings picking up as well. </li>
<li>On the placements front, all eyes remain on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> will do a placement.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s restructuring news caused some exiciting in the IPO market this week, with Hong Kong filings picking up as well. 
On the placements front, all eyes remain on Meituan (3690 HK) and whether Prosus (PRX NA) will do a placement.


ECM Weekly (2nd Apr 2023) - Meituan, Rakuten Bank, SBI, Merdeka, ZJLD, Trial Hol, DPC, WCP, MLT

<ul>
<li>The lock-up on nearly 9.4bn shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> expires on 13 March. Most of that is from the banks that helped in the recapitalisation in March 2020.</li>
<li>There will be forced sellers as soon as the lock-up ends, and there will be other sellers that will want to sell.</li>
<li>The forced and discretionary selling will be offset to a very small extent by inflows from passive trackers in May/June as the free float for the stock increases.</li>
</ul>


The lock-up on nearly 9.4bn shares of Yes Bank (YES IN) expires on 13 March. Most of that is from the banks that helped in the recapitalisation in March 2020.
There will be forced sellers as soon as the lock-up ends, and there will be other sellers that will want to sell.
The forced and discretionary selling will be offset to a very small extent by inflows from passive trackers in May/June as the free float for the stock increases.


YES Bank Lock-Up Expiry: Forced Sellers, Overhang & Index Implications

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

HDFC/HDFCB Merger: Impact on Bank Nifty

The HDFC/HDFCB merger will result in a one-way turnover of around 8.4% for the Nifty Bank Index resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21,865m...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (23rd Apr 2023) - Rakuten Bank, Merdeka, ZJLD, Mankind, Lalatech, IMotion, Anta, KIT

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (10th Apr 2023) - Rakuten Bank, Merdeka Battery, ZJLD, Socionext, Trial Holdings

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Clarence Chu

ECM Weekly (2nd Apr 2023) - Meituan, Rakuten Bank, SBI, Merdeka, ZJLD, Trial Hol, DPC, WCP, MLT

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

YES Bank Lock-Up Expiry: Forced Sellers, Overhang & Index Implications

Over 9bn shares of YES Bank unlock next week. There will be forced selling from local passive trackers, overhang from the banks that helped recap...

Brian Freitas

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