Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely peak in January / February but will likely not moderate much until May/June.  CPI rose from 7% YoY to 8.53% YoY in December but perhaps most alarmingly core CPI rose from 6.99% to 7.48%. In consequence bond yields have started to widen again in Turkey and given the heavy reliance on foreign bond purchases to fund the stock of debt, the currency has come…

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely peak in January / February but will likely not moderate much until May/June.  CPI rose from 7% YoY to 8.53% YoY in December but perhaps most alarmingly core CPI rose from 6.99% to 7.48%. In consequence bond yields have started to widen again in Turkey and given the heavy reliance on foreign bond purchases to fund the stock of debt, the currency has come…

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

<ul><li>Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.</li><li> Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.</li><li>Room for further rate cuts on easing inflation and as demonetization hurts growth; downside risk to overvalued rupee with slow growth and rise in US yields.</li></ul>

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.Room for further rate cuts on easing inflation and as demonetization hurts growth; downside risk to overvalued rupee with slow growth and rise in US yields.

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

The INR is near all time lows. We are doubtful that people are aware that HDFC Bank has been the most aggressive bank in the country at increasing its foreign lending. This is not only at odds with the perception of the bank’s marginal lending focus, but it can result in meaningful new NPLs. This is especially the case where USD borrowings are used for INR investing.  It is also almost certainly the case that nearly all of this foreign lending is not consumer lending, which is purportedly what…

The INR is near all time lows. We are doubtful that people are aware that HDFC Bank has been the most aggressive bank in the country at increasing its foreign lending. This is not only at odds with the perception of the bank’s marginal lending focus, but it can result in meaningful new NPLs. This is especially the case where USD borrowings are used for INR investing.  It is also almost certainly the case that nearly all of this foreign lending is not consumer lending, which is purportedly what…

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

Money Matters: King Cnut and the PBOC.

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely...

Stewart Paterson

Marketnomix Insights : India Outlook

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural...

Rajan Govil

Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the...

Stewart Paterson

Peeling the Layers at HDFC Bank

The INR is near all time lows. We are doubtful that people are aware that HDFC Bank has been the most aggressive bank in the country at increasing...

Daniel Tabbush

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