Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Star Petroleum Refining / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We reiterate the BUY call on SPRC with a TP of Bt13.5. The 2Q22 net profit is expected to surge 7x YoY and +20%QoQ to Bt6.4bn, marking a new high </li>
<li>Expect 2Q22 profit to mark a new high We estimate SPRC to post a 2Q22 net profit of Bt6.4bn (+731% YoY, +22% QoQ), a new quarterly high.The significant earnings growth</li>
<li>The refinery run rate should also inch up to 158kbd (+17% YoY, +5% QoQ), from improving domestic demand. The company will also book a stock gain of Bt1.3bn in 2Q22 </li>
</ul>


We reiterate the BUY call on SPRC with a TP of Bt13.5. The 2Q22 net profit is expected to surge 7x YoY and +20%QoQ to Bt6.4bn, marking a new high 
Expect 2Q22 profit to mark a new high We estimate SPRC to post a 2Q22 net profit of Bt6.4bn (+731% YoY, +22% QoQ), a new quarterly high.The significant earnings growth
The refinery run rate should also inch up to 158kbd (+17% YoY, +5% QoQ), from improving domestic demand. The company will also book a stock gain of Bt1.3bn in 2Q22 


<ul>
<li>Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect the refinery margin continue to improve in 2Q22 led by solid gasoline, diesel and jet fuel spread.</li>
<li>The 1Q22 net profit spiked to an all time high of Bt5.3bn (+164% YoY, +185% QoQ), supported by higher GRM and Sales volume.</li>
<li>We expect 2Q22 recurring profit to improve on the back of rising GRM due to  Russia oil supply disruption and strong oil demand as air travel resumed after COVID impact. </li>
</ul>


Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect the refinery margin continue to improve in 2Q22 led by solid gasoline, diesel and jet fuel spread.
The 1Q22 net profit spiked to an all time high of Bt5.3bn (+164% YoY, +185% QoQ), supported by higher GRM and Sales volume.
We expect 2Q22 recurring profit to improve on the back of rising GRM due to  Russia oil supply disruption and strong oil demand as air travel resumed after COVID impact. 


SPRC: Positive 2Q22 Outlook from GRM Uptrend

<ul>
<li>Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone.We expect refinery margin to continue improving in 1Q22 led by solid gasoline,diesel and jet fuel spreads. SPRC is among our top picks</li>
<li>We expect the market GRM improve to US$7.0/BBL level in 1Q22 (+17% QoQ) and maintain at high levels in 2022 backed by strong product spreads due to global economic recovery.</li>
<li>The diesel spread grew to US$16.4/bbl QTD, compared to US$11.5/bbl in 4Q21. Gasoline and Jet fuel spreads also inched up QTD to US$15.8/bbl (+US$0.4/bbl QoQ) and US$13.0/bbl (+US$2.8/bbl QoQ) respectively.</li>
</ul>


Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone.We expect refinery margin to continue improving in 1Q22 led by solid gasoline,diesel and jet fuel spreads. SPRC is among our top picks
We expect the market GRM improve to US$7.0/BBL level in 1Q22 (+17% QoQ) and maintain at high levels in 2022 backed by strong product spreads due to global economic recovery.
The diesel spread grew to US$16.4/bbl QTD, compared to US$11.5/bbl in 4Q21. Gasoline and Jet fuel spreads also inched up QTD to US$15.8/bbl (+US$0.4/bbl QoQ) and US$13.0/bbl (+US$2.8/bbl QoQ) respectively.


SPRC: Positive 2022 Outlook from GRM Uptrend

<ul>
<li>Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect refinery margin to continue improving in 4Q21 led by solid gasoline, diesel and jet fuel spreads. </li>
<li>We expect the market GRM improve to US$5.0/BBL level in 4Q21 (+114% QoQ) and maintain at high levels in 2022 backed by strong product spreads due to global economic recovery</li>
<li>•The refinery utilization rate should also improve QoQ in 4Q21, after easing of domestic lockdown measures (3rd wave of COVID).</li>
</ul>


Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect refinery margin to continue improving in 4Q21 led by solid gasoline, diesel and jet fuel spreads. 
We expect the market GRM improve to US$5.0/BBL level in 4Q21 (+114% QoQ) and maintain at high levels in 2022 backed by strong product spreads due to global economic recovery
•The refinery utilization rate should also improve QoQ in 4Q21, after easing of domestic lockdown measures (3rd wave of COVID).


SPRC: Positive 4Q21-2022 Outlook from Rising GRM

<ul>
<li>SPRC reported a 3Q21 net profit of Bt113m (-58% YoY, -85% QoQ). The result came out lower than our expectation. However, the 9M21 net profit accounted to  74% </li>
<li>Excluding stock gain of Bt810m, core EBITDA was Bt6.0m (-95%YoY,-97%QoQ).</li>
<li>The YoY and QoQ drop was mainly due to refinery margin contraction following a weak fuel demand and rising crude premium.</li>
</ul>


SPRC reported a 3Q21 net profit of Bt113m (-58% YoY, -85% QoQ). The result came out lower than our expectation. However, the 9M21 net profit accounted to  74% 
Excluding stock gain of Bt810m, core EBITDA was Bt6.0m (-95%YoY,-97%QoQ).
The YoY and QoQ drop was mainly due to refinery margin contraction following a weak fuel demand and rising crude premium.


SPRC: 3Q21 Profit Fell from Declined Products Sales and Margin

Thailand

Star Petroleum Refining PCL offers  petroleum products both for domestic consumption and for export and operates a crude oil refinery. Star Petroleum Refining operates in Thailand.

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Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB)

SPRC : 2Q22 Profit to Mark New High

We reiterate the BUY call on SPRC with a TP of Bt13.5. The 2Q22 net profit is expected to surge 7x YoY and +20% QoQ to Bt6.4bn, marking a new high...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SPRC: Positive 2Q22 Outlook from GRM Uptrend

Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect the refinery margin continue to improve in 2Q22 led by solid gasoline, diesel and jet fuel...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SPRC: Positive 2022 Outlook from GRM Uptrend

Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect refinery margin to continue improving in 1Q22 led by solid gasoline, diesel and jet fuel...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SPRC: Positive 4Q21-2022 Outlook from Rising GRM

Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect refinery margin to continue improving in 4Q21 led by solid gasoline, diesel and jet fuel...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SPRC: 3Q21 Profit Fell from Declined Products Sales and Margin

SPRC reported a 3Q21 net profit of Bt113m (-58% YoY, -85% QoQ). The result came out lower than our expectation. However, the 9M21 net profit...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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