Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade</li>
<li>There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks</li>
<li>This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level</li>
</ul>


Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade
There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks
This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li><em><strong>DBS reported a weak set of 4Q21 results of SGD 1.4 bn, down SGD 307 mn (18.1%) linked quarter and driven by negative operating jaws; </strong></em></li>
<li><em><strong>While provisions weren’t reversed this quarter, reserves should still be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 1.1 bn – amounting to about a half quarter of operating results; and  </strong></em></li>
<li><em><strong>Three transactions in the span of a year is too much. DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before taking on those of other financial institutions. </strong></em></li>
</ul>


DBS reported a weak set of 4Q21 results of SGD 1.4 bn, down SGD 307 mn (18.1%) linked quarter and driven by negative operating jaws; 
While provisions weren’t reversed this quarter, reserves should still be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 1.1 bn – amounting to about a half quarter of operating results; and  
Three transactions in the span of a year is too much. DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before taking on those of other financial institutions. 


DBS Group Holdings – Weak Print, But Credit Improves

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li><em><strong>BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; </strong></em></li>
<li><em><strong>Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and </strong></em></li>
<li><em><strong>BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. </strong></em></li>
</ul>


BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; 
Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and 
BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. 


Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> released an impressive set of 3Q2021, driven by explosive triple-digit TPV growth in its Mitra business, which enables mom&amp;pop stores (Warungs) in Indonesia, along with higher take-rates.</li>
<li>The slower growth in marketplace was accompanied by lower S&amp;M costs, as the company transforms this business towards an online specialty store model, which is gaining traction.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> looks to be misunderstood by retail investors, presenting an opportunity after the post-IPO correction, with a number of new initiatives gaining momentum in Mitra and marketplace.</li>
</ul>



Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) released an impressive set of 3Q2021, driven by explosive triple-digit TPV growth in its Mitra business, which enables mom&amp;pop stores (Warungs) in Indonesia, along with higher take-rates.
The slower growth in marketplace was accompanied by lower S&amp;M costs, as the company transforms this business towards an online specialty store model, which is gaining traction.

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) looks to be misunderstood by retail investors, presenting an opportunity after the post-IPO correction, with a number of new initiatives gaining momentum in Mitra and marketplace.


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Empowering Mitra and Creating Shopfronts

<section class="figure">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a>released its 3Q2021 results this week which saw its 9M2021 new bookings increase +72.7% YoY or +4.2% QoQ, reflecting a new normal situation versus last year when new booking had virtually ground to a halt. All the same, this performance was impressive given the backdrop of Emergency PPKM measures impacting mobility.</p>
<p>3Q2021 performance was relatively robust given that the country was in the midst of Emergency PPKM during the quarter with a stronger recovery taking place in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bf-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9276:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> profitability remained healthy with its interest spread at 11.3%, with the cost of funds steady at 8.5%, making it very competitive versus competition.</p>
<p>The company's NCL ratio declined significantly QoQ but slightly higher than last year, as a result of more repossessions and collateral disposals. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> continues to make good progress on restructured loans with 86.8% of restructured loans reverting to normal status as of the end of 9M2021.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
</section>
<section class="figure">
<section class="figure">
<p>The company continues to develop its digital capabilities and has been developing its fintech push through Pinjam Modal and it has also launched BFI Connect, which is an open API platform, which can be integrated into other platforms such as e-commerce.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The key message from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> management was that the company is moving back towards a growth trajectory, with new booking improving and receivables seeing higher repayments. We continue to see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> as the most interesting multi finance company in Indonesia, with a strong risk management culture and with the potential to generate higher ROEs as the market recovers. </p>
</div>
</section>
</section>


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)released its 3Q2021 results this week which saw its 9M2021 new bookings increase +72.7% YoY or +4.2% QoQ, reflecting a new normal situation versus last year when new booking had virtually ground to a halt. All the same, this performance was impressive given the backdrop of Emergency PPKM measures impacting mobility.
3Q2021 performance was relatively robust given that the country was in the midst of Emergency PPKM during the quarter with a stronger recovery taking place in September. 
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) profitability remained healthy with its interest spread at 11.3%, with the cost of funds steady at 8.5%, making it very competitive versus competition.
The company's NCL ratio declined significantly QoQ but slightly higher than last year, as a result of more repossessions and collateral disposals. 
BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) continues to make good progress on restructured loans with 86.8% of restructured loans reverting to normal status as of the end of 9M2021.



The company continues to develop its digital capabilities and has been developing its fintech push through Pinjam Modal and it has also launched BFI Connect, which is an open API platform, which can be integrated into other platforms such as e-commerce.

The key message from BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) management was that the company is moving back towards a growth trajectory, with new booking improving and receivables seeing higher repayments. We continue to see BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) as the most interesting multi finance company in Indonesia, with a strong risk management culture and with the potential to generate higher ROEs as the market recovers. 




BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Shining Through in a Difficult Period

Hong Kong

Standard Chartered plc is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.  The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (2888 HK)

Standard Chartered - Nickel and Dimes

The surge in nickel prices and the wrong-way trade(s) will mean bank counter-party risk, with STAN being highlighted in reports. ROA risk can be...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS Group Holdings – Weak Print, But Credit Improves

DBS: DBS 4Q21 declined 18.1% QOQ and driven by negative operating jaws; While loss provisions weren’t reversed this quarter, reserves should be...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

BANK NEGARA INDONESIA: BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, and heavily dependent on a negative 10.0% tax rate. BNI recently announced deal comes...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Empowering Mitra and Creating Shopfronts

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) looks to be misunderstood by retail investors, presenting an opportunity after the post-IPO correction, with a number of new...

Angus Mackintosh

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Shining Through in a Difficult Period

We continue to see BFI Finance Indonesia as the premier multi finance company in Indonesia, with a strong risk management culture and with the...

Angus Mackintosh

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