Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>WSJ reports Spirit is exploring a Chapter 11 filing, with this risk apparent since the collapse of the planned JetBlue combination in January.</li>
<li>We highlight detailed analysis comparing the economics of airline recoveries across the US, illustrating Spirit lags on commercial performance and cost control.</li>
<li>With labor costs up from 21% of revenue in 2Q19 to 33% in 2Q24, compared to a pre-tax match of 12% in 2019, Spirit needs to address this labor-pricing mismatch.</li>
</ul>


WSJ reports Spirit is exploring a Chapter 11 filing, with this risk apparent since the collapse of the planned JetBlue combination in January.
We highlight detailed analysis comparing the economics of airline recoveries across the US, illustrating Spirit lags on commercial performance and cost control.
With labor costs up from 21% of revenue in 2Q19 to 33% in 2Q24, compared to a pre-tax match of 12% in 2019, Spirit needs to address this labor-pricing mismatch.


Spirit Airlines Needs to Address Labor Cost-Pricing Mismatch with or Without Chapter 11

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

<ul><li>Tier's offer to acquire Spirit included an all stock consideration of 1.52 shares of Frontier stock for each share of Spirit stock</li><li>Spirit valued the offer at $25.28 per share, totaling $6.2 billion</li><li>Spirit was concerned about Frontier's ability to execute due to their high leverage and limited track record of integration, leading them to explore a potential merger with Jet Blue</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Tier's offer to acquire Spirit included an all stock consideration of 1.52 shares of Frontier stock for each share of Spirit stockSpirit valued the offer at $25.28 per share, totaling $6.2 billionSpirit was concerned about Frontier's ability to execute due to their high leverage and limited track record of integration, leading them to explore a potential merger with Jet BlueThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Spirit Airlines Eetcs (SAVE) - Thursday, Feb 15, 2024

<ul>
<li>Invest in Spirit 8% bonds due 9/20/2025</li>
<li>Spirit Airlines has strong cash position and available credit</li>
<li>Bonds are guaranteed by Spirit Airlines and backed by assets such as Airbus A320 airplanes</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Invest in Spirit 8% bonds due 9/20/2025
Spirit Airlines has strong cash position and available credit
Bonds are guaranteed by Spirit Airlines and backed by assets such as Airbus A320 airplanes

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Spirit Airlines (SAV Bonds) - Tuesday, Jan 16, 2024

<ul>
<li>Spirit Airlines finished 2023 as expected and highlights improving pricing momentum in early 2024 which should drive some margin recovery.</li>
<li>However, we still expect EBITDAR/ASM to finish 2024 down 72% on 2019, with a maximum 50% deficit required to avoid escalating debt. This drives a focus on Chapter 11 risk.</li>
<li>Management is adamant liquidity is sufficient to allow it to recover but significant margin gains, led by pricing expansion despite aggressive growth plans, are required for financial sustainability.</li>
</ul>


Spirit Airlines finished 2023 as expected and highlights improving pricing momentum in early 2024 which should drive some margin recovery.
However, we still expect EBITDAR/ASM to finish 2024 down 72% on 2019, with a maximum 50% deficit required to avoid escalating debt. This drives a focus on Chapter 11 risk.
Management is adamant liquidity is sufficient to allow it to recover but significant margin gains, led by pricing expansion despite aggressive growth plans, are required for financial sustainability.


Spirit Airlines - Summer 2024 a Critical Test of Organic Recovery Prospects

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Skymark Airlines / Equity Capital Markets

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skymark-airlines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20430:1" rel="noopener">Skymark Airlines (9204 JP)</a> raised US$242m in its Japan IPO. The shares began to trade on 14th Dec 2022, its six-month lockup will expire on 11th Jun 2023.</li>
<li>Skymark Airlines (SA) is a Japanese low-cost airline, being the third largest domestic airline  according to the company. Unlike major airlines and other low-cost carriers, Skymark operates only domestic flights.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) raised US$242m in its Japan IPO. The shares began to trade on 14th Dec 2022, its six-month lockup will expire on 11th Jun 2023.
Skymark Airlines (SA) is a Japanese low-cost airline, being the third largest domestic airline  according to the company. Unlike major airlines and other low-cost carriers, Skymark operates only domestic flights.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Skymark Airlines Lockup Expiry - Still Doesn’t Seem Cheap with 50% of the Shares Being Unlocked

United States

Spirit Airlines Inc. is a low-fare airline based in Miramar, Florida. The Airline provides low-cost travel opportunities principally to and from South Florida, the Caribbean and Latin America. Spirit Airlines basic service combines with a range of optional services for additional fees, targets price sensitive leisure travelers and travelers visiting friends and relatives.

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Spirit Airlines (SAVE US)

Spirit Airlines Needs to Address Labor Cost-Pricing Mismatch with or Without Chapter 11

Deep dive on the drivers of Spirit Airlines's financial challenges relative to peers as the WSJ reports it is exploring a Chapter 11 filing.

Neil Glynn

Spirit Airlines Eetcs (SAVE) - Thursday, Feb 15, 2024

Spirit was concerned about Frontier's ability to execute due to their high leverage and limited track record of integration, leading them to...

Value Investors Club

Spirit Airlines (SAV Bonds) - Tuesday, Jan 16, 2024

Invest in Spirit 8% bonds due 9/20/2025 Spirit Airlines has strong cash position and available credit Bonds are guaranteed by Spirit Airlines and...

Value Investors Club

Spirit Airlines - Summer 2024 a Critical Test of Organic Recovery Prospects

Detailed analysis of Spirit's recovery prospects as the market questions if it may need to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection if...

Neil Glynn

Skymark Airlines Lockup Expiry - Still Doesn’t Seem Cheap with 50% of the Shares Being Unlocked

Skymark Airlines (9204 JP) raised US$242m in its Japan IPO. The shares began to trade on 14th Dec 2022, its six-month lockup will expire on 11th...

Ethan Aw

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