Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li><div>We saw consensus ‘groupthink’ reach new levels in 2016, exacerbated by surging AUM managed in trend following style.</div></li>
<li><div>Extrapolation remains the default forecasting tool for most professional opinion and Japan has been a case in point over the past 18mths.</div></li>
<li><div>The USDJPY saw its biggest two-week move since 1988 post the US election, as quant funds retreated from record speculative long positions.</div></li>
<li><div>
<span lang="EN-US">Foreign investors bought almost $8bn of Japanese stocks in the past two weeks, reducing their net selling</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


We saw consensus ‘groupthink’ reach new levels in 2016, exacerbated by surging AUM managed in trend following style.
Extrapolation remains the default forecasting tool for most professional opinion and Japan has been a case in point over the past 18mths.
The USDJPY saw its biggest two-week move since 1988 post the US election, as quant funds retreated from record speculative long positions.

Foreign investors bought almost $8bn of Japanese stocks in the past two weeks, reducing their net selling…


Consensus Rethinks Japan, as Serial Extrapolation Proves Costly

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<p>Given the wide popularity of making all types of <span class="TextHighLight">travel</span> bookings online, the <span class="TextHighLight">travel</span> industry continues to be one of the industries most impacted by the rise of the connected consumer. Online <span class="TextHighLight">travel</span> sales are continuing to outpace the industry’s overall <span class="TextHighLight">growth</span> rates. Countries such as <strong>China</strong> and <strong>South Korea</strong> are appealing to the mobile-first mindset of today’s traveler. As a result of this need to design <span class="TextHighLight">travel</span> offerings with the <span class="TextHighLight">digital</span> consumer in mind, Euromonitor International set out to explore market nuances in order to pinpoint <span class="TextHighLight">five</span> of the most promising countries for <span class="TextHighLight">digital</span><span class="TextHighLight">growth</span> in the <span class="TextHighLight">travel</span> industry:</p>

Given the wide popularity of making all types of travel bookings online, the travel industry continues to be one of the industries most impacted by the rise of the connected consumer. Online travel sales are continuing to outpace the industry’s overall growth rates. Countries such as China and South Korea are appealing to the mobile-first mindset of today’s traveler. As a result of this need to design travel offerings with the digital consumer in mind, Euromonitor International set out to explore market nuances in order to pinpoint five of the most promising countries for digitalgrowth in the travel industry:

Five Key Travel Markets to Watch for Digital Growth

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<p>Medicine is changing. For hundreds of years, the key drivers of progress were biology and chemistry. Now they are data science and software.</p><p>Big Medicine and Big Pharma are being gradually undermined by swelling networks of connected biosensors, ubiquitous mobile devices and cloud-based healthcare apps. Collectively, we group these phenomena under the umbrella term, “The Internet of Medical Things”.</p><p>Five broad technology categories are set to transform the $8 trillion global healthcare industry over the next two years: genomics, mobile health, health IT systems, robotics and virtual reality.</p><p>These five technologies will dramatically change the balance of power in the “Healthcare” value chain, but it may take a few years to get there.</p><p>In this report, we look at the main technology categories where disruption of the healthcare sector will be at its greatest over the next two years and identify which parts of the value chain investors should focus on. The five key technology categories are genomics (a branch of biotech), mobile health, health IT systems, robotics and virtual reality.</p>

Medicine is changing. For hundreds of years, the key drivers of progress were biology and chemistry. Now they are data science and software.Big Medicine and Big Pharma are being gradually undermined by swelling networks of connected biosensors, ubiquitous mobile devices and cloud-based healthcare apps. Collectively, we group these phenomena under the umbrella term, “The Internet of Medical Things”.Five broad technology categories are set to transform the $8 trillion global healthcare industry over the next two years: genomics, mobile health, health IT systems, robotics and virtual reality.These five technologies will dramatically change the balance of power in the “Healthcare” value chain, but it may take a few years to get there.In this report, we look at the main technology categories where disruption of the healthcare sector will be at its greatest over the next two years and identify which parts of the value chain investors should focus on. The five key technology categories are genomics (a branch of biotech), mobile health, health IT systems, robotics and virtual reality.

<ul>
<li><div>Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25<sup>th</sup> note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.</div></li>
<li><div><span lang="EN-US">With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.</span></div></li>
<li><div>
<span lang="EN-US">The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.
With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.

The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should…


Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<p>Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. </p><p>This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.</p>

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Consensus Rethinks Japan, as Serial Extrapolation Proves Costly

We saw consensus ‘groupthink’ reach new levels in 2016, exacerbated by surging AUM managed in trend following style. Extrapolation remains the...

Sean Maher

Five Key Travel Markets to Watch for Digital Growth

Given the wide popularity of making all types of travel bookings online, the travel industry continues to be one of the industries most impacted by...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

MedTech as an Investment Theme

Medicine is changing. For hundreds of years, the key drivers of progress were biology and chemistry. Now they are data science and software.Big...

CM Research

Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely...

Sean Maher

Trump, OPEC and Uncertain Games

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought...

Emad Mostaque

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