Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

·  A year ago, the key issue to understand was that commodity markets were about to tighten and position accordingly – energy and materials have been the best performing MSCI sectors.·  The global economy is starting the year on a strong cyclical footing, with EM factory PMIs accelerating ex India and Brazil, while both Europe and the US have seen momentum build further.·  A key risk is the fallout from an attempt by the new US administration to close the merchandise trade deficit which has…

·  A year ago, the key issue to understand was that commodity markets were about to tighten and position accordingly – energy and materials have been the best performing MSCI sectors.·  The global economy is starting the year on a strong cyclical footing, with EM factory PMIs accelerating ex India and Brazil, while both Europe and the US have seen momentum build further.·  A key risk is the fallout from an attempt by the new US administration to close the merchandise trade deficit which has…

US Policy Focus Shifts to Closing Trade Deficit…

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

In this report, we use intermarket analysis to analyze XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF) vs. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR ETF). The use of intermarket analysis is a practical method of assessing the future inflection points in the economy and the stock market.  Intermarket analysis is intuitive and logical. For example, we take two widely followed consumer ETFs, including XLY (discretionary) and XLP (staples). We use the US ETFs since they are the most liquid and have the deepest…

In this report, we use intermarket analysis to analyze XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF) vs. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR ETF). The use of intermarket analysis is a practical method of assessing the future inflection points in the economy and the stock market.  Intermarket analysis is intuitive and logical. For example, we take two widely followed consumer ETFs, including XLY (discretionary) and XLP (staples). We use the US ETFs since they are the most liquid and have the deepest…

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The US economy is expected to get a boost in 2017 through increased infrastructure spending and a lowering of corporate tax rates with the election of Donald Trump as the next US President</li><li>The Federal Reserve has signalled its intent to resume a gradual pace of rate increases going forward.</li><li>The dollar has strengthened with an expectation of higher fiscal impulse through government spending and tax cuts, the Fed is expected to continue tightening with higher growth and inflation expectations.</li></ul>

The US economy is expected to get a boost in 2017 through increased infrastructure spending and a lowering of corporate tax rates with the election of Donald Trump as the next US PresidentThe Federal Reserve has signalled its intent to resume a gradual pace of rate increases going forward.The dollar has strengthened with an expectation of higher fiscal impulse through government spending and tax cuts, the Fed is expected to continue tightening with higher growth and inflation expectations.

<ul>
<li>The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and global reflation; positioning has shifted accordingly.</li>
<li><div>The value over momentum positioning advocated all year has paid off dramatically - globally, value has outperformed by about 20 ppts since July, the second-best run versus quality in almost 40 years.</div></li>
<li><div>Calling the oil market right in 2016 was critical to everything else in asset allocation including…</div></li>
</ul>


The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and global reflation; positioning has shifted accordingly.
The value over momentum positioning advocated all year has paid off dramatically - globally, value has outperformed by about 20 ppts since July, the second-best run versus quality in almost 40 years.
Calling the oil market right in 2016 was critical to everything else in asset allocation including…


2017 Asset Allocation Outlook – Part 2: Trump Reflation Euphoria to Fade?

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

<ul>
<li>
Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.</li>
<li>
Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.</li>
<li>
China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.</li>
</ul>The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…



Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.

Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.

China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.
The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

US Policy Focus Shifts to Closing Trade Deficit…

· A year ago, the key issue to understand was that commodity markets were about to tighten and position accordingly – energy and materials have...

Sean Maher

Intermarket Analysis (1): XLY Versus XLP

In this report, we use intermarket analysis to analyze XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF) vs. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR ETF). The...

Douglas Kim

Marketnomix Insights : United States

The US economy is expected to get a boost in 2017 through increased infrastructure spending and a lowering of corporate tax rates with the...

Rajan Govil

2017 Asset Allocation Outlook – Part 2: Trump Reflation Euphoria to Fade?

The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and...

Sean Maher

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia. Mexico: Fitch downgrades...

David Riedel

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