UK: Vacancies Reveal Risk to Recent Resilience
Headline labour market data were broadly bullish, despite Brexit uncertainty, as employment and wages continued to grow, with the latter...
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UK: GDP Revisions Soften 2Q19 Weakness
UK monthly GDP rebounded by 0.3% m-o-m as car manufacturing normalised after its unusually concentrated maintenance cycle in April. The 3m-o-3m...
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Brexit: Shock Simulations for No Deal Scenario
Leaving the EU without a deal is becoming increasingly likely. Doing so would trigger some sudden shocks, initially through another GBP...
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UK: Surveys Support 2Q19 Contraction Call
The UK services PMI was a slight disappointment in Jun-19 as it dipped by 0.8 to 50.2, which is broadly where it has been for several months....
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Brexit: No Deal Risk Reaches Record Highs
The European Council has agreed on a package of presidents not personally invested in the current Brexit deal. That likely leaves a little room...
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