Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.</li>
<li>Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.</li>
<li>As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.


Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bul / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win.</li><li>Today’s strong USD looks, in the end, to be our currency and our problem.</li><li>Keep an eye out for dangerously destructive economic policies, but don’t use that as an excuse to avoid the asset class entirely.</li><li>The yen and euro are at their cheapest levels in decades and hedging emerging market equities would be an expensive proposition even if the currencies weren’t generally cheap versus the USD.</li></ul>

Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win.Today’s strong USD looks, in the end, to be our currency and our problem.Keep an eye out for dangerously destructive economic policies, but don’t use that as an excuse to avoid the asset class entirely.The yen and euro are at their cheapest levels in decades and hedging emerging market equities would be an expensive proposition even if the currencies weren’t generally cheap versus the USD.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p style="text-align: justify;">Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.</p>

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with the US equity cycle staging a final push out above NDX 12,500 and the DJI bull triangle at 30k. SPX rally energy beginning to struggle near 3,720 projection.USD near a cycle low expected to front run the equity cycle peak due next week. Low in USD, peak in the equity cycle and low in gold.Our ideal cycle peak comes in around December 15 with the next cycle date on December 21 that will trigger profit taking into year-end that will most likely snowball ahead of a fresh bull drive in January/February.We outlined NDX and DJI key levels as the rally drivers this week and where a rally would fail given a number of mounting risks into year-end.

<div>Our cycle work suggests equity weakness into December 20th and raising the stakes on Tariffs, increases risk of a downside overshoot as does a delayed China/US deal. We still have the positive backdrop of QE, easier monetary policy to carry a rally into Q1. Our focus is on levels to cover hedge shorts and add to long exposure.</div><div></div><div>The following are key pivot support levels that if broken would induce a harder decline. Focus is on USD/JPY, Nikkei 22,400, WTI wedge support, gold wedge resistance, DJI 27,300 old high pivot, SPX 3,020 and Eurostoxx RSI and MACD support breaks.</div><div></div><div>SPX base case is to close shorts from 3,150 and reverse to long near 3,045 with new highs with our finger on these risk pivot points that would alter levels.</div>

Our cycle work suggests equity weakness into December 20th and raising the stakes on Tariffs, increases risk of a downside overshoot as does a delayed China/US deal. We still have the positive backdrop of QE, easier monetary policy to carry a rally into Q1. Our focus is on levels to cover hedge shorts and add to long exposure.The following are key pivot support levels that if broken would induce a harder decline. Focus is on USD/JPY, Nikkei 22,400, WTI wedge support, gold wedge resistance, DJI 27,300 old high pivot, SPX 3,020 and Eurostoxx RSI and MACD support breaks.SPX base case is to close shorts from 3,150 and reverse to long near 3,045 with new highs with our finger on these risk pivot points that would alter levels.

Trigger Levels for a Harder December Pullback

United States

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. The ETF holds the 30 large-cap US stocks that represent the Index. This ETF is registered as a Unit Investment trust and pays a monthly dividend representing dividends paid by the underlying stocks. The ETF's holdings are price weighted.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SPDR DJIA Trust (DIA US)

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

The bear market rally we have been discussing since Sept. 27 has begun, with over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes $SPX $QQQ $NDX...

Vermilion Research

GMO Q2 2022 Quarterly Letter

Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win. Today’s...

Fund Newsletters

Mid December Equity Peak

Equity rally cycle very extended in Asia and Europe with some tailwinds for the US into the next key cycle timeline. USD near a cycle low expected...

Thomas Schroeder

Trigger Levels for a Harder December Pullback

Our cycle work suggests equity weakness into December 20th and raising the stakes on Tariffs, increases risk of a downside overshoot as does a...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)