EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>This note looks at the background of the recent Ankara bombing, the political situation in Turkey and its position in the region.</p><p>The note starts with an analysis of who benefits from the political violence we have seen reintroduced to Turkish politics and how it is sharpening the differences between various groups inside Turkey (the final conclusion is al Qaeda benefits most, ignored by most).</p><p>We then consider the political and religious background of the AKP and how it impacts its current actions and the efficacy of the security forces is then considered, finishing with some thoughts on the Battle of the Five Armies that we are now seeing in Syria and why Russia has now entered the fray.</p><p>The conclusions are somewhat somber, but it feels like we may be close to a bottom in some key areas with a path to ruin unlikely and some level of political stability to return to Turkey with my core view still being an AKP majority for November 1<sup>st</sup>, with a CHP-coalition next most likely, both of which would cause the market and currency to rally in the next few weeks.</p>

This note looks at the background of the recent Ankara bombing, the political situation in Turkey and its position in the region.The note starts with an analysis of who benefits from the political violence we have seen reintroduced to Turkish politics and how it is sharpening the differences between various groups inside Turkey (the final conclusion is al Qaeda benefits most, ignored by most).We then consider the political and religious background of the AKP and how it impacts its current actions and the efficacy of the security forces is then considered, finishing with some thoughts on the Battle of the Five Armies that we are now seeing in Syria and why Russia has now entered the fray.The conclusions are somewhat somber, but it feels like we may be close to a bottom in some key areas with a path to ruin unlikely and some level of political stability to return to Turkey with my core view still being an AKP majority for November 1st, with a CHP-coalition next most likely, both of which would cause the market and currency to rally in the next few weeks.

<p>Despite recent weakness Gulf markets have proved to be some of the most resilient in EM in the face of collapsing oil prices. There is evidence that Qatar and Abu Dhabi in particular may provide a safe haven in turbulent markets and other regional markets look to be approaching a market even in a low oil price environment. Societal change has also started, potentially resulting in more resilient nations in the future.</p>

Despite recent weakness Gulf markets have proved to be some of the most resilient in EM in the face of collapsing oil prices. There is evidence that Qatar and Abu Dhabi in particular may provide a safe haven in turbulent markets and other regional markets look to be approaching a market even in a low oil price environment. Societal change has also started, potentially resulting in more resilient nations in the future.

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

<div>Below are some thoughts on the current situation in Turkey re: the Kurdish flare up, the likely outcome of which will be an AKP majority government. Not all kurds are the same and ISIS is succeeding in its tactics of neutering one of the more effective forces against it, although the YPG &amp; Peshmerga will remain.</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>Egypt is now at a crucial point in its development, with real risks of repeating the mistakes of Algeria in the 90s civil war.&nbsp;</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>Further escalation may well mark a great opportunity for investment however as the underlying economy, ex-tourism, will continue to hum along with the real victim of all this being civil society.&nbsp;</div>

Below are some thoughts on the current situation in Turkey re: the Kurdish flare up, the likely outcome of which will be an AKP majority government. Not all kurds are the same and ISIS is succeeding in its tactics of neutering one of the more effective forces against it, although the YPG &amp; Peshmerga will remain.&nbsp;Egypt is now at a crucial point in its development, with real risks of repeating the mistakes of Algeria in the 90s civil war.&nbsp;&nbsp;Further escalation may well mark a great opportunity for investment however as the underlying economy, ex-tourism, will continue to hum along with the real victim of all this being civil society.&nbsp;

A Kurdish conundrum & Egypt faces the ghosts of Algeria

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

<p>Airbus and Boeing, the powerhouses of the aircraft manufacturing industry and the largest duopoly in the world, shared revenues of $407.5 billion in 2014. As the fight for market share trudges along, it is a battle of nerves and steel (or carbon fiber in this matter). The airlines industry today is dynamic and competitive, investing in cost-saving measures rapidly. How are these two manufacturing giants coping up? Let us take a look.</p>

Airbus and Boeing, the powerhouses of the aircraft manufacturing industry and the largest duopoly in the world, shared revenues of $407.5 billion in 2014. As the fight for market share trudges along, it is a battle of nerves and steel (or carbon fiber in this matter). The airlines industry today is dynamic and competitive, investing in cost-saving measures rapidly. How are these two manufacturing giants coping up? Let us take a look.

Flying through turbulent or clear skies: An analysis on Airbus & Boeing

United States

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. The ETF holds the 30 large-cap US stocks that represent the Index. This ETF is registered as a Unit Investment trust and pays a monthly dividend representing dividends paid by the underlying stocks. The ETF's holdings are price weighted.

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SPDR DJIA Trust (DIA US)

Ankara: Cui Bono?

This note looks at the background of the recent Ankara bombing, the political situation in Turkey and its position in the region.The note starts...

Emad Mostaque

Will the Gulf remain resilient?

Despite recent weakness Gulf markets have proved to be some of the most resilient in EM in the face of collapsing oil prices. There is evidence...

Emad Mostaque

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

A Kurdish conundrum & Egypt faces the ghosts of Algeria

Below are some thoughts on the current situation in Turkey re: the Kurdish flare up, the likely outcome of which will be an AKP majority...

Emad Mostaque

Flying through turbulent or clear skies: An analysis on Airbus & Boeing

Airbus and Boeing, the powerhouses of the aircraft manufacturing industry and the largest duopoly in the world, shared revenues of $407.5 billion...

Ishita Jain

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