New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The curse of the incumbent; SPK will likely experience significant cloud headwinds for several years to come</li><li>Free cash flow declining again thanks to growth capex: SPK has delivered admirable growth in free cash flow over the last five years and are back to growing its dividends.</li><li>Mobile still strong — but easy wins from One NZ are likely behind us as One NZ has improved its service levels </li></ul>

The curse of the incumbent; SPK will likely experience significant cloud headwinds for several years to comeFree cash flow declining again thanks to growth capex: SPK has delivered admirable growth in free cash flow over the last five years and are back to growing its dividends.Mobile still strong — but easy wins from One NZ are likely behind us as One NZ has improved its service levels 

Spark NZ: Running Fast, Moving Slow; Down to NEUTRAL

<ul><li>Key financial metrics in-line with our forecasts, apart from more near-term capex: SPK is targeting between +2% and +4% revenue growth per annum from FY24–FY26 (FB; +2.9%).</li><li>Price pressure in fixed broadband and private cloud likely dampening the outlook: Over the last six years SPK's voice gross profit has declined from nearly ~25% of the group to ~7%.</li><li>MATTR — the highlight of the day: SPK aims for its high-tech growth opportunities to generate NZ$100m–150m in revenue by FY26.</li></ul>

Key financial metrics in-line with our forecasts, apart from more near-term capex: SPK is targeting between +2% and +4% revenue growth per annum from FY24–FY26 (FB; +2.9%).Price pressure in fixed broadband and private cloud likely dampening the outlook: Over the last six years SPK's voice gross profit has declined from nearly ~25% of the group to ~7%.MATTR — the highlight of the day: SPK aims for its high-tech growth opportunities to generate NZ$100m–150m in revenue by FY26.

Spark NZ: Underwhelming Targets, Yet Reassuring

<ul><li>Spark (SPK) reported a weak first half result, with every area (apart from mobile) disappointing consensus expectations.</li><li>The largest negative deviation versus our expectations came in cloud, security and service management and "other" (likely primarily attributed to Spark Sport content costs).</li><li>The result did come with a relatively thick silver lining; SPK retained its full year EBITDAI guidance, albeit, with expectations that it would achieve the lower end</li></ul>

Spark (SPK) reported a weak first half result, with every area (apart from mobile) disappointing consensus expectations.The largest negative deviation versus our expectations came in cloud, security and service management and "other" (likely primarily attributed to Spark Sport content costs).The result did come with a relatively thick silver lining; SPK retained its full year EBITDAI guidance, albeit, with expectations that it would achieve the lower end

Spark NZ: 1H23 — Ugly Result With a Thick Silver Lining

<ul><li>Spark (SPK) has reported a weak 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$510m, significantly below our NZ$586m forecast and consensus’ NZ$579m.</li><li>The dividend guidance was unchanged for FY23, in-line with our forecast of NZ27cps, fully imputed</li><li>Growth capex for FY23 is expected to be NZ$350m, ~+NZ$150m above our estimate.</li></ul>

Spark (SPK) has reported a weak 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$510m, significantly below our NZ$586m forecast and consensus’ NZ$579m.The dividend guidance was unchanged for FY23, in-line with our forecast of NZ27cps, fully imputedGrowth capex for FY23 is expected to be NZ$350m, ~+NZ$150m above our estimate.

Spark (SPK): 1H23 Result − Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Spark (SPK) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday, 22 February 2023</li><li>SPK has guided for FY23 EBITDAI of NZ$1,185m to NZ$1,225m</li><li>Key points of interest are; (1) an update regarding strategy and growth capex, given the recent Spark Sport exit and TowerCo sale, (2) comments on capital management, given the revised framework, and (3) mobile growth, in particular roaming as tourism resumes.</li></ul>

Spark (SPK) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday, 22 February 2023SPK has guided for FY23 EBITDAI of NZ$1,185m to NZ$1,225mKey points of interest are; (1) an update regarding strategy and growth capex, given the recent Spark Sport exit and TowerCo sale, (2) comments on capital management, given the revised framework, and (3) mobile growth, in particular roaming as tourism resumes.

New Zealand

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) is a digital services provider for communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on customer experiences, mobility and data.

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Spark New Zealand (SPK AU)

Spark NZ: Running Fast, Moving Slow; Down to NEUTRAL

Over the last five years Spark (SPK) has delivered an EBITDA CAGR of ~+4%. The key drivers have been; (1) cost out and (2) strong mobile pricing...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ: Underwhelming Targets, Yet Reassuring

Spark (SPK) held its triennial strategy day with a focus on how its technology capabilities enable it to grow new and sustainable digital...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ: 1H23 — Ugly Result With a Thick Silver Lining

Spark (SPK) reported a weak first half result, with every area (apart from mobile) disappointing consensus expectations; the result did come with a...

Forsyth Barr

Spark (SPK): 1H23 Result − Initial Impressions

Spark (SPK) has reported a weak 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$510m, significantly below our NZ$586m forecast and consensus’ NZ$579m; the dividend...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ: 1H23 Preview

Spark (SPK) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday, 22 February 2023 and key points of interest are; (1) an update regarding strategy and...

Forsyth Barr

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