Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<p>In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.</p>

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years earlier.&nbsp;A number of structural and cyclical headwinds continued to adversely impact the sector, including the persistently strong Australian dollar, consumer caution associated with the financial crisis and increased competition from e-tailers.&nbsp;In this post, I argue that signs of a less cautious consumer are emerging.&nbsp;There is downside risk to the household saving ratio as households become more optimistic about the future, durable goods spending continues to recover and consumer sentiment should benefit from the positive reaction to the Federal Budget.&nbsp;Against this backdrop, I recommend investors neutralise their under-weight bets in discretionary retailers, with a view to moving overweight as more signs of a less cautious consumer emerge.&nbsp;Getting the sector call right is more important than stock selection, but we highlight stocks that offer the strongest upside, including Echo, GUD, Harvey Norman, Premier Investment and Super Retail.

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

Australia

Enero Group Limited provides specialist marketing services.  The Company's services build and leverage customer relationships, develop brands and generate sales.  Enero's services include advertising services, media planning and communications, public relations, research services, direct marketing, specialist design and event management.

Brisbane Broncos Limited is a sporting franchise company which manages and operates the Brisbane Broncos rugby league football team.

GTN Limited is a supplier of traffic information reports to radio stations in Australia, United Kingdom, Canada, and Brazil. The Company receives commercial advertising spots adjacent to traffic, news, and information reports from its network of affiliates and these spots are bundled together and sold to advertisers on a national, regional, or specific market basis.

Prime Media Group Limited is a television broadcaster offering programming services in regional New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and the Gold Coast.Prime offers a variety of programming including news, sports and entertainment.

Aspermont Limited publishes branded print and Internet trade publications to the mining, oil and gas, construction and related markets.

Victor Group Holdings Ltd provides marketing consulting services to enterprises. The Company focuses on marketing management training, brand planning and marketing strategic planning.

Seven West Media Limited is a national multi-platform media business based in Australia.  The Company's operations include a television network, magazines, newspapers, radio, and Internet.

IVE Group Limited provides advertising and marketing services. The Company offers promotional merchandising, third party sourcing, printing, retail display, and business communication services. IVE Group conducts its business in Australia.

oOh!media Ltd is a media company. The Company provides advertising and marketing solutions, campaign production, campaign management, creative and digital solutions.

Event Hospitality and Entertainment Limited owns and operates motion picture exhibition cinemas, drive-in theaters and film processing laboratories.  The Group also owns and operates the Thredbo Alpine Resort, Sydney harbor ferry services and the Feather -dale Wildlife Park along with operating hotels, resorts and restaurants.

Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)

Mei Ah Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, distributes films and programs in audio visual products formats.  The Company also sub-licenses film exhibition and rights, and provides internet and related services.  In addition, Mei Ah Entertainment operates television station.

Saga Communications, Inc. acquires, develops, and operates broadcast properties. The Company owns and operates FM and AM radio stations, state radio networks, a farm radio network, and television stations in the United States.

Plexure Group Ltd has developed a smartphone based digital wallet and cloud based m-commerce platform.

Shenghua Entertainment Communication Co., Ltd. is a media and entertainment company engaging in the production and filming of TV drama.

TOW CO., LTD. plans, advertises, produces, and manages various types of events. The Company manages exhibitions, ceremonies, festivals, products promotion campaigns, public service announcements, sporting events, and expositions.

FreakOut Holdings, inc. operates as a digital marketing technology company. The Company offers demand side platform development and sales, trading desk development, and design and implementation of RTB infrastructure. FreakOut markets its products and services internationally.

Chorokbaem Media Co., Ltd. operates in an entertainment business and also manufactures non-woven fabrics for artificial leather reinforcement, filter fabrics, industrial filter fabrics, and needle felts. The Company provides its products to domestic market as well as overseas markets.

Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd. is a publishing company. The Company publishes the "Hindustan" Hindi newspaper which covers news across the entire spectrum of international, national and local news relating to politics, business, entertainment, sports and other general interests.

Korea Cable T.V. Chung-buk System Co., Ltd. (CCS) operates a cable television system for Chungbuk area.  The Company also provides high-speed Internet services.

Zee Media Corporation Limited operates in the media industry. The Company's programming covers all genres, such as news, social service programming, entertainment and sports.

Southern Cross Media Group Limited operates broadcasting and publishing businesses. The Company operates regional radio and television stations in Australia, and publishes community newspapers in the United States.

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Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)

A less cautious consumer: Good news for discretionary retailers (finally!)

In a blog post last year, I wrote of the lost decade for discretionary retailers; expected profitability was little changed from ten years...

Sam Ferraro

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52-week Range

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