Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for June 2016.

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for June 2016.

China Property: CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities - June 2016 Data

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major cities in China suggests fastest pace of inventory clearing for those cities in at least 5 years, driven by strong sales volume growth but also by lower land sales and new starts in several major cities.

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major cities in China suggests fastest pace of inventory clearing for those cities in at least 5 years, driven by strong sales volume growth but also by lower land sales and new starts in several major cities.

China Property: What Oversupply? Assessing Inventory Clearing Situation In Major 13 Cities

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning.  Home to large amounts of contracting heavy industries, specifically those targeted for supply reductions, Liaoning is home to maybe the largest default and restructuring in China in Dongbei Steel.  This is a vitally important issue and one that needs some background.Liaoning is in northeast China and home to large amounts of heavy industry like shipbuilding, coal…

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators.  For a long time, there have been questions about the stated GDP growth figures, which appear too robust, considering the rise in bad loans and many other metrics. The figures in Hong Kong may prove a good barometer of the magnitude of change and the distress within China GDP growth.Hong Kong reported 3.2% real GDP growth in June 2015, dropping steadily through December 2015, but now it is down…

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

China

China Huarong Asset Management Co Ltd. provides a variety of financial services. The Company offers asset management, banking, securities services, financial leasing, trust services, and investment services. China Huarong Asset Management maintains branch locations throughout China.

Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd. brokers securities trading, trades securities, underwrites securities, provides securities custody services and financial advising services.

AnXin Trust Co., Ltd-A is a non-banking financial firm.  The Company's businesses include trust deposit, trust loan, securities trading, financing lease, securities underwriting, and other financial services. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also invests in real estate development.

Guoyuan Securities Co., Ltd. offers securities brokerage and asset management services.

Changjiang Securities Co. Ltd. through its subsidiaries provides securities brokerage, asset management, fixed income, equity investment, derivatives products, and other investment services.

Changjiang Securities Company (000783 CH)

Western Securities Company Limited provides securities services such as brokerage, investment and financial advisory, underwriting and sponsorship, self-operation, asset management, investment fund distribution, and futures intermediary businesses.

Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities businesses. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, underwriting, securities asset management, fund consignment, financing, and intermediate services. Dongxing Securities conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

Caitong Securities Co.,Ltd. operates securities businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, securities underwriting, asset management, credit trading, investment banking, and securities consulting services. Caitong Securities also conducts futures and fund management businesses.

Nanjing Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, securities underwriting, asset management, credit trading, financial derivatives trading, and internet financial services. Nanjing Securities mainly conducts businesses in China.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities investment fund agency, securities asset management, and other services. Shenwan Hongyuan Group provides services in China.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a global, diversified financial services group. The Company offers services that include securities, commodities, investment banking and venture capital.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS IN)

Moelis & Company is an investment bank. The Company provides financial advisory services and capital raising solutions to clients in connection with mergers, acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings. Moelis & Company offers its services worldwide.

Tata Investment Corporation Limited invests in land, stocks and debentures.  The Company has been granted a mandate allowing it to takeover the management and control of companies.

Macquarie Korea Infrastructure Fund invests in infrastructure assets in Korea and delivers returns to the shareholders.  The investment assets include toll-roads, tunnels, subway, marine terminal port, and bridges.

Cohen & Steers, Inc. is a global investment manager. The Firm manages portfolios focused on real assets, including real estate, infrastructure and commodities, along with preferred securities and other income solutions. Cohen & Steers serves individual and institutional investors around the world through a broad range of investment vehicles.

Piper Sandler Cos operates as a financial services firm. The Company provides investment banking, mergers and acquisitions, equity and debt capital markets, private placements, restructuring, and financial advisory services to businesses, institutions, and individuals. Piper Jaffray serves customers worldwide.

Crisil Ltd. operates a credit rating agency in India. The Company specializes in the areas of risk identification, classification and assessment, across a broad spectrum of industries.

Azimut Holding SpA offers investment management services.  The Company manages open-end mutual and pension funds, and offers investment advice and insurance. Azimut distributes its products through financial consultants in northern and central Italy.

Brederode SA is an investment company which actively manages a portfolio of listed and private equity investments.  The Company seeks to provide dividend income, and appreciation on the disposal of investments.  Brederode invests in listed companies it judges to be undervalued.  The Company's private equity investments are fixed-term partnerships in companies in Europe and the US.

IG Group Holdings PLC is a global online trading company, providing access to financial markets, including shares, indices, commodities and binaries to a retail and institutional client base. The Company is a global provider of CFDs and forex. IG operates across Europe, Africa, Asia-Pacific and the US, where it offers limited risk derivatives via the Nadex brand.

Soochow Securities Company Limited provides securities-related services such as brokerage, investment and financial advisory, underwriting and sponsorship, proprietary trading, asset management and investment fund distribution. The Company also provides intermediary services to futures companies.

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Soochow Securities Co Ltd A (601555 CH)

China Property: CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities - June 2016 Data

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: What Oversupply? Assessing Inventory Clearing Situation In Major 13 Cities

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major...

Robert Ciemniak

CBRC May Be Drawing Hard Line with Liaoning on Debt Levels

There is a report in Caixin that the China Development Bank is pressuring banks and underwriters to stop making loans to Liaoning. Home to large...

Christopher Balding

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid,...

Robert Ciemniak

Hong Kong's Growth Suggests More Weakness in China

Second-guessing the true rate of GDP growth in China has become a sort of art for many commentators. For a long time, there have been questions...

Daniel Tabbush

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