Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novatek reported earnings ahead of expectations where margins rose thanks to recovery in pricing for its products in inventory. Inventory metrics improved as well.</li>
<li>Key industry readthrough -- Novatek seeing strongest demand for DDICs (display driver chips) coming from the small/medium form factor and highlighted mass production of VR as a cause.</li>
<li>Apple could be quietly preparing for mass production of AR/VR headset ahead of announcement at June's WWDC. Combined with Novatek's comments, could AR/VR will be going mass market this year?</li>
</ul>


Novatek reported earnings ahead of expectations where margins rose thanks to recovery in pricing for its products in inventory. Inventory metrics improved as well.
Key industry readthrough -- Novatek seeing strongest demand for DDICs (display driver chips) coming from the small/medium form factor and highlighted mass production of VR as a cause.
Apple could be quietly preparing for mass production of AR/VR headset ahead of announcement at June's WWDC. Combined with Novatek's comments, could AR/VR will be going mass market this year?


Novatek: Volume Production of VR Driving Strongest Segment; AR/VR Finally Going Mass Market in 2023?

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX flat on the day as catalysts lacking; Tech down ahead Wed's  CPI as momentum builds for rate hike;  Broad strength in cyclicals - underlying economic strength?</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY  133.7;Buffet says he looking to raise Japan equity weighting; MHI awarded big defense contract for missiles: Denso gears up for EV transition </li>
<li>NUGGET.  Toyota gets serious in BEVs - we are excited about the prospects for the supply chain, particularly Denso and Panasonic </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX flat on the day as catalysts lacking; Tech down ahead Wed's  CPI as momentum builds for rate hike;  Broad strength in cyclicals - underlying economic strength?
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY  133.7;Buffet says he looking to raise Japan equity weighting; MHI awarded big defense contract for missiles: Denso gears up for EV transition 
NUGGET.  Toyota gets serious in BEVs - we are excited about the prospects for the supply chain, particularly Denso and Panasonic 


Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET - Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>, the online banking arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023.</li>
<li>RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we provide our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023.
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we provide our thoughts on valuation.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> is looking to raise up to US$393m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about implied valuations in the IPO price range</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise up to US$393m in its Japan IPO.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
In this note, we talk about implied valuations in the IPO price range


Trial Holdings IPO - Sector Lagging Margins Warrant a Discount

Japan

Sony Corporation manufactures audio, home video game consoles, communications, key device and information technology products for the consumer and professional markets.  The Company's other businesses include music, pictures, computer entertainment, and online businesses.

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Sony Corp (6758 JP)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Novatek: Volume Production of VR Driving Strongest Segment; AR/VR Finally Going Mass Market in 2023?

Apple could be quietly preparing for mass production of AR/VR headset ahead of announcement at June's WWDC. Combined with Novatek's comments, could...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET - Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain

While the US market looks for direction, in Japan, some positive headlines with help underline our bullish outlook. First, Warren Buffet in an...

Mark Chadwick

Rakuten Bank IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Trial Holdings IPO - Sector Lagging Margins Warrant a Discount

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) is looking to raise up to US$393m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about implied valuations.

Sumeet Singh

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