Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.</p>

Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none">There has been growing awareness of the business case for inclusion and diversity (I&amp;D) in the workplace. In Japan, Prime Minister Suga has pledged continued government support for corporate governance reform and he would like to see more </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none">women</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none"> and foreigners in key positions. While many companies cite I&amp;D as a source of competitive advantage and a key enabler of growth, few academic studies have been able to prove a direct link between I&amp;D and financial performance. Our analysis on Japan’s larger companies suggests the following:</span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":6,"335551620":6,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p></div><div><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;" role="list" start="1"><li role="listitem" data-leveltext="%1." data-font="Calibri" data-listid="1" aria-setsize="-1" data-aria-posinset="1" data-aria-level="1"><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none">Most Japanese companies have very low levels of diversity. Although the participation of women on the boards of Japanese companies is expanding, those with higher levels of diversity are yet to see any improvement in financial metrics or stock performance. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":6,"335551620":6,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p></li></ol></div><div><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;" role="list" start="2"><li role="listitem" data-leveltext="%1." data-font="Calibri" data-listid="1" aria-setsize="-1" data-aria-posinset="2" data-aria-level="1"><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="none">Our broad composite index of board entrenchment also bears little correlation with key metrics. However, boards that are younger on average do appear to be more effective, and are correlated with a broad range of operating metrics. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":6,"335551620":6,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p></li></ol></div>

There has been growing awareness of the business case for inclusion and diversity (I&amp;D) in the workplace. In Japan, Prime Minister Suga has pledged continued government support for corporate governance reform and he would like to see more women and foreigners in key positions. While many companies cite I&amp;D as a source of competitive advantage and a key enabler of growth, few academic studies have been able to prove a direct link between I&amp;D and financial performance. Our analysis on Japan’s larger companies suggests the following: Most Japanese companies have very low levels of diversity. Although the participation of women on the boards of Japanese companies is expanding, those with higher levels of diversity are yet to see any improvement in financial metrics or stock performance.  Our broad composite index of board entrenchment also bears little correlation with key metrics. However, boards that are younger on average do appear to be more effective, and are correlated with a broad range of operating metrics.  

President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>IoT, AI and other big data applications are driving the generation of data and the data that needs to be stored for the long term.  Magnetic tape, now 68 years old, continues to be used for long term data archiving.  The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.</p>

IoT, AI and other big data applications are driving the generation of data and the data that needs to be stored for the long term.  Magnetic tape, now 68 years old, continues to be used for long term data archiving.  The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.

Fujifilm and IBM Magnetic Tape Milestone:  Supporting Archive Industry

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>About ten weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> wrote about the likelihood that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sre-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29672:1" rel="noopener">SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP)</a> would move to the TSE's First Section in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-event-trade-2980-jp-sre-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43530" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event Trade (2980 JP): SRE Holdings</a> which pretty much explained the case in its title, and suggested that it was a likely candidate to move when it reached its 1-year anniversary of listing. </p><p>Janaghan's analysis on SRE was based on his analysis of TOPIX Inclusion bets in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-events-recent-tachiaigai-bunbai-round-up" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40509" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Recent "Tachiaigai Bunbai" Round-Up</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/historical-topix-inclusions-what-flavor-performs-best" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39523" rel="noopener">Historical TOPIX Inclusions:  What Flavor Performs Best?</a>). His more recent work developed since the TSE1 Listing Rules changed last month is available in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusions-new-regulations-who-is-ready-2-0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45783" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions:  New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0</a>.</p><p>Indeed, SRE was his top pick:</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/339/original/Screenshot%202020-12-14%20at%207.14.20%20PM.png?1607944479" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178339"></figure></section><p>Today after market close, SRE announced (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/2980/tdnet/1912909/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-only</a>) they had received approval to move from TSE MOTHERS to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 23rd December 2020 - two trading days after the end of the above-mentioned 1-year post-IPO waiting period. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 28th January 2021. </p><p>They also announced a small offering which can be ignored.</p><p>In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the offering to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event. It is, for those of you who follow the Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion Framework, a GREEN, but it is really just across the border from BLUE which is still OK. </p>

About ten weeks ago, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA wrote about the likelihood that SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) would move to the TSE's First Section in TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event Trade (2980 JP): SRE Holdings which pretty much explained the case in its title, and suggested that it was a likely candidate to move when it reached its 1-year anniversary of listing. Janaghan's analysis on SRE was based on his analysis of TOPIX Inclusion bets in TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Events: Recent "Tachiaigai Bunbai" Round-Up and Historical TOPIX Inclusions:  What Flavor Performs Best?). His more recent work developed since the TSE1 Listing Rules changed last month is available in TOPIX Inclusions:  New Regulations! Who Is READY? 2.0.Indeed, SRE was his top pick:Today after market close, SRE announced (J-only) they had received approval to move from TSE MOTHERS to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as of 23rd December 2020 - two trading days after the end of the above-mentioned 1-year post-IPO waiting period. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 28th January 2021. They also announced a small offering which can be ignored.In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the offering to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event. It is, for those of you who follow the Quiddity TOPIX Inclusion Framework, a GREEN, but it is really just across the border from BLUE which is still OK. 

SRE (2980) TOPIX Inclusion Announced. It's GREEN!

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/176/175/original/2020-12-03_05-39-01.png?1606941555" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="176175"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics </div></section><div><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS PICKS</strong> - Our recent series of Insights covering companies that are extreme outliers in our Relative Price Score/Results &amp; Revision Score matrix has featured the following seven companies:-  </p></div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7117:1" rel="noopener">Nikon (7731 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-media-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3191:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Media (4676 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway (9020 JP)</a> </li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO (6146 JP)</a> </li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUND BUYS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> </li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH SELLS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao  (4452 JP)</a> </li>
</ul>
<p><strong>2021 HIGH CONVICTION COLLECTION</strong> - For Smartkarma's '2021 High Conviction Collection' we have chosen one of the seven to be our selection. Given the lack of short ideas so far - only two and both in the US - our pick, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP)</a>, is the first Asian, and first Japanese, 'short' to join the Collection.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/176/209/original/2020-12-03_10-35-14.png?1606959327" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="176209"></figure></section><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener"><strong>M3</strong></a>- M3 is the most extreme outlier of the seven stocks we have featured and was recommended as a 'Suga Growth Long in our Smartkarma Original - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-in-the-suga-era-policy-priorities-suga-stocks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43773" rel="noopener">Japan in the Suga Era - Policy Priorities &amp; 'Suga Stocks'</a>. Since then the stock has appreciated by 40% and by 10% since we published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-four-quadrants-contrarian-sells" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45725" rel="noopener">Contrarian Sells</a>, adding almost ¥2 trillion in market value M3 is Japan's fifteenth largest company with a market value of ¥6.4 trillion, despite having only ¥144 billion in trailing revenues, ¥43 billion in trailing operating income, and just ¥18 billion in trailing CITC. While valuations may be less of a concern in the momentum-driven post-COVID era, we have highlighted several areas of concern regarding the company's margin-diluting diversification, that suggest that M3's tripling in value seen in 2020 will not be repeated. <strong>M3 is our 2021 'High Conviction Sell' </strong>     </p>
</div>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics FOUR QUADRANTS PICKS - Our recent series of Insights covering companies that are extreme outliers in our Relative Price Score/Results &amp; Revision Score matrix has featured the following seven companies:-  


CONTRARIAN BUYS - Nikon (7731 JP), Fuji Media (4676 JP), East Japan Railway (9020 JP) 

CONTRARIAN SELLS - M3 (2413 JP), DISCO (6146 JP) 

TURNAROUND BUYS - Softbank Corp (9434 JP) 

EX-GROWTH SELLS - Kao  (4452 JP) 

2021 HIGH CONVICTION COLLECTION - For Smartkarma's '2021 High Conviction Collection' we have chosen one of the seven to be our selection. Given the lack of short ideas so far - only two and both in the US - our pick, M3 (2413 JP), is the first Asian, and first Japanese, 'short' to join the Collection.
M3- M3 is the most extreme outlier of the seven stocks we have featured and was recommended as a 'Suga Growth Long in our Smartkarma Original - Japan in the Suga Era - Policy Priorities &amp; 'Suga Stocks'. Since then the stock has appreciated by 40% and by 10% since we published Contrarian Sells, adding almost ¥2 trillion in market value M3 is Japan's fifteenth largest company with a market value of ¥6.4 trillion, despite having only ¥144 billion in trailing revenues, ¥43 billion in trailing operating income, and just ¥18 billion in trailing CITC. While valuations may be less of a concern in the momentum-driven post-COVID era, we have highlighted several areas of concern regarding the company's margin-diluting diversification, that suggest that M3's tripling in value seen in 2020 will not be repeated. M3 is our 2021 'High Conviction Sell'      


2021 High Conviction 🇯🇵 Sell M3 (2413 JP)

Japan

Sony Group Corporation manufactures and distributes electronics products and provides related solutions. The Company produces televisions, cameras, mobiles, audio and video products. game equipment, and more. Sony Group also engages in game production,  movie production, music production, and other businesses.

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Sony Corp (SONY US)

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. 25 stocks...

David Lepper

Japan Governance - Diversity Matters

Japanese companies have very low levels of board diversity. Participation by women is too low to see any tangible results yet, but more youthful...

Mark Chadwick

Fujifilm and IBM Magnetic Tape Milestone: Supporting Archive Industry

The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.

Thomas Coughlin

SRE (2980) TOPIX Inclusion Announced. It's GREEN!

SRE (2980) is going into TOPIX. Credit Janaghan Jeyakumar for the call. This is a GREEN inclusion - about 10 days of ADV and the company is a...

Travis Lundy

2021 High Conviction 🇯🇵 Sell M3 (2413 JP)

2021 HIGH CONVICTION COLLECTION - For Smartkarma's '2021 High Conviction Collection' we have chosen one of our seven RPS/RRS outliers to be our...

Campbell Gunn

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