Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.</p>

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>In our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-short-term-catalysts-are-not-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43675" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive</a>, we suggested that, while we like SCGP for its longer-term prospects, the company’s short-term performance is likely to be hindered by the sluggish Thai economy. However, we believe these short-term risks are compensated through the company’s valuation, which looks attractive to us even at the higher-end of the indicative IPO price range. We would consider subscribing to the IPO but would not rule out the possibility of a pullback in the short-run under margins pressure.</p>

In our previous note, SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive, we suggested that, while we like SCGP for its longer-term prospects, the company’s short-term performance is likely to be hindered by the sluggish Thai economy. However, we believe these short-term risks are compensated through the company’s valuation, which looks attractive to us even at the higher-end of the indicative IPO price range. We would consider subscribing to the IPO but would not rule out the possibility of a pullback in the short-run under margins pressure.

SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range

<p>Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.</p><p>We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).</p><p>Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.</p>

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel   exporters to the US.</p><p>Steel exports to US from China are low at about 2.9mt in November. If the US adds more steel tariffs, it will have little impact to the steel market or prices but it will possibly cause a retaliation by the Chinese.</p><p>China only exports 26% of Global Steel Exports, far lower than the 50% of their total global steel production. Most of Chinese steel exports go to other Asian…</p>

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel   exporters to the US.Steel exports to US from China are low at about 2.9mt in November. If the US adds more steel tariffs, it will have little impact to the steel market or prices but it will possibly cause a retaliation by the Chinese.China only exports 26% of Global Steel Exports, far lower than the 50% of their total global steel production. Most of Chinese steel exports go to other Asian…

Market Is Wrong on US Tariffs for Chinese Steel

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast  </strong>Tuesday 15 March 2016</p><div><strong>Oil trade points and risk on</strong></div><p>To view click on this link:  <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/W9MfxP5MlodF" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/W9MfxP5MlodF</a> </strong>5:07 min.</p><div><strong>As our risk on March cycle matures it is imperative we get oil right.</strong></div><div>
<strong>WTI</strong> topside of the range comes in at 38-40 but a dip and rally sequence is expected to finalize the March risk on rise.</div><div>
<strong>Brent</strong> hourly chart shows a buy point today just above 38.50 projection for a push back to 40 just under 40.10 resistance. Worst case calls for a slide to 38.00…</div>

Chartonics webcast  Tuesday 15 March 2016Oil trade points and risk onTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/W9MfxP5MlodF 5:07 min.As our risk on March cycle matures it is imperative we get oil right.
WTI topside of the range comes in at 38-40 but a dip and rally sequence is expected to finalize the March risk on rise.
Brent hourly chart shows a buy point today just above 38.50 projection for a push back to 40 just under 40.10 resistance. Worst case calls for a slide to 38.00…

United States

Sealed Air Corporation manufactures packaging and performance-based materials and equipment systems that serve food, industrial, medical, and consumer applications.

Greif Inc. manufactures and markets industrial packaging products and services. The Company provides steel, plastic, fiber, corrugated and multiwall containers. Greif also produces containerboard and has operations nationwide.

Silgan Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries manufacture consumer goods packaging products.  The Company currently produces steel and aluminum containers for human and pet food, custom designed plastic containers for various markets, plastic closures and caps, thermoformed  plastic tubs, and specialty packaging items.  Silgan markets its products in North America.

Berry Global Group Inc. manufactures plastic products and containers. The Company produces agricultural film, moisture control products for buildings, closures, disposable cutlery, drop cloths, flexible packaging, overcaps, tapes, tubes, bottles, drink cups, lids, and trash bags. Berry Plastics markets its products worldwide.

UFP Technologies, Inc. designs and manufactures a broad range of high-performance cushion packaging and specialty foam and plastic products for the industrial and consumer markets. The Company also custom designs and manufactures precision molded fiber packaging products made primarily from recycled paper.

O-I Glass, Inc. manufactures packaging products. The Company produces various types of glass bottles for food, beverage, cosmetics, and other related industries. O-I Glass serves customers worldwide.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is an integrated provider of paperboard and integrated paperboard packaging solutions to multinational beverage and consumer products companies.  The Company manufactures folding cartons for frozen and non-frozen food and beverage products.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK US)

Crown Holdings, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells packaging products for consumer goods through plants located in countries around the world.  The Company's primary products include steel and aluminum cans for food, beverage, household, and other consumer products.  Crown also provides a variety of metal caps, closures, and dispensing systems.

AptarGroup, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets pumps, dispensing closures, and aerosol valves.  The Company's products are used for fragrance/cosmetics, personal care, pharmaceutical, household/industrial, and food products. AptarGroup operates worldwide.

Myers Industries, Inc. manufactures plastic and rubber products for industrial, agricultural, automotive, commercial, and consumer markets.  The Company's products include plastic containers, rubber tire repair products, and custom rubber materials.  Myers is also a wholesale distributor of tools, equipment, and supplies for the tire service and automotive underbody repair industry.

Huhtamaki Oyj manufactures consumer packaging products.  The Company produces disposable food service and tableware products, such as cups, plates, and trays, as well as containers for fresh meats, fruits, dairy products, frozen foods, coffee, and detergents.  Huhtamaki makes the containers of paper, molded fibers, and plastics.  The Company manufactures in many countries and sells worldwide.

Klabin S.A. produces, exports, and recycles paper. The Company's products include packaging paper and board, corrugated boxes, industrial sacks and timber in logs for saw mills and veneer plants.

SCG Packaging Public Company Limited provides packaging services and solutions. The Company offers fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, and food service products, as well as designing and printing services. SCG Packaging serves customers worldwide.

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings Ltd primarily manufactures, markets, and sells metal, plastic, and glass packaging products and containers.  The Company specializes in food cans, 18-liter cans, and other beverage cans.  Toyo Seikan also produces steel products such as steel sheets.

Vidrala SA manufactures glass bottles and markets them throughout Europe.  The Company produces bottles for beverages, vegetable oils, and preserves.

DS Smith Plc is an International paper company focused on packaging and office products. The Group collects waste paper, manufactures paper, converts corrugated packaging and produces bag-in-box, plastic corrugated and heavy duty corrugated packaging, as well as wholesales office supplies.

BillerudKorsnas AB offers primary fibre-based renewable packaging materials and packaging solutions used for consumer packaging and industrial purposes.

Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG manufactures cardboard, folding cartons, and packaging materials primarily from recycled wastepaper.  The Company operates production facilities in Austria and throughout Europe.

Orora Limited provides packaging products and services. The Company offers fiber, glass, and beverage can packaging materials in Australia and Asia and packaging distribution services in North America and Australia.

Sonoco Products Company manufactures industrial and consumer packaging solutions for customers around the world.  The Company's products include flexible packaging, high density film products, and folding cartons.  Sonoco Products also has an integrated network of global technology centers focused on materials science, packaging engineering, and process improvement.

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Sonoco Products Co (SON US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain...

Vermilion Research

SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range

In our previous note, SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive, we suggested that, while we like SCGP for its longer-term...

Supun Walpola

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4,...

Vermilion Research

Market Is Wrong on US Tariffs for Chinese Steel

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel exporters to the US.Steel exports to US...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

Oil Trade Points and Risk On

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 15 March 2016Oil trade points and risk onTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/W9MfxP5MlodF 5:07...

Thomas Schroeder

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