Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UK Fund exposure in Softcat PLC has reached new highs.  The percentage of UK funds invested in Softcat now stands at a record 17.3% with average holding weights of 0.21%</li>
<li>Softcat PLC moves to the 5th most widely held Technology stock in the UK, sharing similar ownership characteristics to Spirent Communications, Halma PLC and Oxford Instruments.</li>
<li>With Softcat approaching the boundaries of FTSE 100 inclusion, it’s not hard to envisage investment levels moving higher from here.</li>
</ul>


UK Fund exposure in Softcat PLC has reached new highs.  The percentage of UK funds invested in Softcat now stands at a record 17.3% with average holding weights of 0.21%
Softcat PLC moves to the 5th most widely held Technology stock in the UK, sharing similar ownership characteristics to Spirent Communications, Halma PLC and Oxford Instruments.
With Softcat approaching the boundaries of FTSE 100 inclusion, it’s not hard to envisage investment levels moving higher from here.


Softcat PLC: Record Overweight as UK Managers Buy In

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
<li>We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail </li>
</ul>


New multi-year highs on the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes -- combined with overwhelmingly healthy market dynamics -- validates our bullish outlook on global equities.
We continue to view the latest 5-6% pullback on $ACWI as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and we expect higher prices ahead.
Global Energy Sector appears to be topping, and Materials could be next. We highlight buys in Technology (quickly becoming leadership again) and Consumer Discretionary/Retail 


Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

<p>Deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and the downward trajectory of bond yields leads us to remain cautious and concerned that global equities remain vulnerable and could be poised for additional weakness moving forward. Major indexes around the world continue to do next to nothing, making Sector, Group, and stock selection all the more important. We prefer to use a barbell strategy of growth and safety. Attractive and actionable themes highlighted in today’s report include IT Services/Tech Software, Communications, Precious Metals, and Utilities.</p>

Deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and the downward trajectory of bond yields leads us to remain cautious and concerned that global equities remain vulnerable and could be poised for additional weakness moving forward. Major indexes around the world continue to do next to nothing, making Sector, Group, and stock selection all the more important. We prefer to use a barbell strategy of growth and safety. Attractive and actionable themes highlighted in today’s report include IT Services/Tech Software, Communications, Precious Metals, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Stay on the Defensive

United Kingdom

Computacenter plc provides distributed information technology and related services to corporate and public sector organizations.  The Group's services are divided into three sectors: logistical operations, consolidation and integration, and operational management.  Computacenter has operations in the UK, France, Luxembourg and Belgium.

Kainos Group plc provides information technology services, consulting, and software solutions. The Company specializes in development of digital technology solutions, software design and agile software development, third-party software integration and implementation services, and technology support services. Kainos Group serves customers worldwide.

Endava Plc operates as an information technology service company. The Company offers software engineering, cloud transformation, test automation, technology consulting, and other related services. Endava serves finance, insurance and healthcare, retail and consumer goods, media and technology, and communication industries worldwide.

FDM Group (Holdings) PLC offers IT services in the form of project management, business analysis, data operations, and product and employee support and development.

NCC Group PLC is a global provider of independent escrow and information security assurance services. The Company provides business critical IT assurance and protection to public and private organizations worldwide.

Redcentric plc provides IT managed services in the United Kingdom. The company offers applications consulting, including database readiness, database and data optimization, and risk and compliance management services; managed database and application services; and on-premise services, such as application acceleration, as well as building resilient data management and analytics infrastructure services. It also provides collaboration services comprising IP telephony, SIP trunk, unified communications, video conferencing, calls and lines, and inbound services; and infrastructure services consisting of disaster recovery as a service, hosting and collocation, data management, infrastructure as a service, software as a service, hosted desktop, server load balancing, managed exchange, and virtualization services. In addition, the company offers network services, including multiprotocol label switching, metro network, business Internet access, connectivity, high capacity, Ethernet fabric, LAN and WAN, VPN, N3 network access, wireless network, secure remote access, and network monitoring services. Further, it provides security services comprising encryption, firewall, and network security; and mobile services consisting of mobile device, data, minutes, device management, device recycling, and messaging services. Additionally, the company operates and manages data centers. Redcentric plc was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Harrogate, the United Kingdom.

Eckoh plc provides secure payment products and customer service solutions for customer contact centers in the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It provides HALOH, a suite of secure payments products that address concerns around the receipt, transmission, and storage of sensitive card information, insider and external fraud, and payment card industry data security standards compliance. The company?s HALOH product suite includes CallGuard solutions that can be deployed on the customer?s site, midcall, or hosted in the cloud, which allow contact center agents to take customer telephone payments without being exposed to card details; DataGuard, a hosted solution for e-commerce payments that prevents card data from entering organization and networks, as well as secures Web/mobile payments and batch files transfers; and EckohPAY, which enables customers to make automated secure self-service payments through phone, Web, or mobile devices. Eckoh plc was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Hemel Hempstead, the United Kingdom.

D4t4 Solutions Plc engages in the distribution, design, installation, and support of computer hardware and software systems in the United Kingdom. The company focuses on data solutions for its clients to provide end-to-end management of the entire data lifecycle, from its initial creation through the manipulation, analysis and management of the data, and eventual retirement into industry-compliant archives. It operates through three segments: License Sales, Project Work, and Recurring Revenues. The company offers data collection solutions, including digital data and document capture solutions; and data management solutions, such as cloud, secure data, application, content, and document management, as well as data storage and information archiving solutions. It also provides data analysis solutions comprising data insight, customer intelligence, integrated marketing management, data visualization, marketing automation, and search-driven analytics; and data solutions, including analytics-as-a-service, software-as-a-service, fraud solutions, platform modernization, migration and upgrades, and Web and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as IS Solutions plc and changed its name to D4t4 Solutions Plc in July 2016. D4t4 Solutions Plc was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Sunbury-on-Thames, United Kingdom.

1Spatial Plc is a business and technology consultant. The Company provides advisory services and distributes software solutions in the corporate performance management market.

Playtech plc develops unified software platforms and content for the online, mobile and land-based gaming industry.  The Company's gaming applications include casino, poker, bingo, sports betting, live gaming, casual and fixed odds games.

NS Solutions Corporation operates system consulting services and proposal of solutions.  The Company also manages operation and maintenance of engineering systems and develops software.

Teradata Corp operates as a database management company in the technology industry. The company offers analytic data solutions through integrated data warehousing, big data analytics, and business applications.  Teradata Corp collaborates with leading innovators in software, technology, and integration services.

GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. provides credit card transaction services for electronic commerce firms.

Nihon Unisys, Ltd. wholesales and leases computers and peripheral equipment, and also develops various types of computer software.  The Company's main products include server systems and various type of software for financial, engineering, retail, and manufacturing industries.

Posco DX Company Ltd. provides information and technology services. The Company provides computer systems design, computer and server merchant wholesale, computer and office machine repair and maintenance services. Posco DX also offers eic engineering, smart factory, wireless networking equipment, steel manufacturing, and digital video recorder manufacturing services.

TIS Inc is established through reorganization.  The Company provides network solutions and system integration services.  IT Holdings also engages in development, implementation, and maintenance of application software besides selling computer and computer peripheral equipment.

Euronet Worldwide, Inc. provides electronic financial transaction solutions. The Company offers financial payment middleware, financial network gateways, outsourcing, and consulting services to financial institutions and mobile operators.  Euronet has processing centers located in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

The Western Union Company offers global money transfer services. The Company offers consumer to consumer money transfer and bill paying services, and sells money orders.

Travelsky Technology Limited provides information technology solutions for China's air travel and tourism industries.  The Company provides electronic travel distribution systems, or ETD, in China, develops airport passenger processing and air cargo systems, owns and operates real-time network for China's civil aviation industry, and operates Internet-based travel platform.

Indra Sistemas, S.A. offers information technology products and services.  The Company offers systems integration and outsourcing services, installs railway management and ticketing systems, installs road traffic toll and signaling systems, constructs satellite communications systems, manufactures radar air defense systems, and installs insurance management systems.

Softcat PLC provides information technology services. The Company offers commodity sourcing, software licensing, e-procurement, unified communications, and managed services. Softcat serves customers in the United Kingdom.

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Softcat PLC (SCT LN)

Softcat PLC: Record Overweight as UK Managers Buy In

UK active long-only fund exposure in Softcat PLC has hit record highs as it approaches the boundaries of FTSE 100 inclusion.

Steven Holden

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs; Global Energy Sector Deteriorating, Is Materials Next?

There are few things more bullish than Global MSCI Indexes at Multi-Year Highs $ACWI $ACWX $EFA $EEM; Buys in Tech $TSM; Global Energy Sector...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Stay on the Defensive

Deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and the downward trajectory of bond yields leads us to remain...

Vermilion Research

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