Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Event-Driven

Sprint shares now trade at a 27% discount to the value implied in their T Mobile merger agreement. With federal regulatory approvals secured, that seems steep but it more likely reflects a potential re-pricing of the deal. Unfortunately for Sprint shareholders, including Softbank, the original business agreement lapsed 29 October even as Sprint financial results have worsened and an undefined regulatory liability hangs the company. We think the combination is enough to push T Mobile and parent Deutsche Telekom to push for a lower price especially as a lack of buyers, time and willingness to stand alone leave Sprint and Softbank with few alternatives. As a result, even at that 27% discount, we would be cautious on Sprint shares.

Sprint shares now trade at a 27% discount to the value implied in their T Mobile merger agreement. With federal regulatory approvals secured, that seems steep but it more likely reflects a potential re-pricing of the deal. Unfortunately for Sprint shareholders, including Softbank, the original business agreement lapsed 29 October even as Sprint financial results have worsened and an undefined regulatory liability hangs the company. We think the combination is enough to push T Mobile and parent Deutsche Telekom to push for a lower price especially as a lack of buyers, time and willingness to stand alone leave Sprint and Softbank with few alternatives. As a result, even at that 27% discount, we would be cautious on Sprint shares.  

Sprint/T Mobile Merger: Don't Be Surprised If This Deal Is Re-Priced

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Softbank’s Q2/19-20 results came in as we had expected. The numbers were focused on WeWork and SVF1’s investment, while touching very little on other more important but performing assets such as Alibaba and Sprint (merger with T-Mobile is credit positive). The financial risk profile, based on holdco methodology with the key metric being Net Debt/Market Value of Listed Assets, remained stable despite the large writedown, which was more than offset by the USD 19 bn increase in the Alibaba stake.

  Softbank’s Q2/19-20 results came in as we had expected. The numbers were focused on WeWork and SVF1’s investment, while touching very little on other more important but performing assets such as Alibaba and Sprint (merger with T-Mobile is credit positive). The financial risk profile, based on holdco methodology with the key metric being Net Debt/Market Value of Listed Assets, remained stable despite the large writedown, which was more than offset by the USD 19 bn increase in the Alibaba stake. 

Softbank - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2019-20 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18387'>CIFI Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-5225'>Country Garden Holdings Co</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-16899'>Modern Land China</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-27445'>Softbank Corp</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-240'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20934'>Tata Steel Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.CIFI HoldingsCountry Garden Holdings CoModern Land ChinaSoftbank CorpSunac China HoldingsTata Steel Ltd

Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, Country Garden Holdings Co, Modern Land China, Softbank Corp

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Uber (-9.9%) and Lyft (-6.1%) both faced selling pressure on the day after releasing earnings that showed some marginal improvement in losses. Uber’s revenue of USD3.81bn beat consensus of USD3.39bn but EBITDA was -USD1.27bn vs. consensus at -USD0.81bn. In a post WeWork era, scrutiny of profitability is increasing and we examine how realistic a turn to profitability in two years is.

Uber (-9.9%) and Lyft (-6.1%) both faced selling pressure on the day after releasing earnings that showed some marginal improvement in losses. Uber’s revenue of USD3.81bn beat consensus of USD3.39bn but EBITDA was -USD1.27bn vs. consensus at -USD0.81bn. In a post WeWork era, scrutiny of profitability is increasing and we examine how realistic a turn to profitability in two years is.

Uber - 2021 Profitability a Beautiful Dream For Locked-Up Investors

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Uber Technologies  / Equity Capital Markets

UBER reported 3Q results yesterday which have been taken negatively by the market whilst its lockup expires on Wednesday, November 6. In this note, we review the latest set of results and assess prospects for its lock-up expiry tomorrow.

UBER reported 3Q results yesterday which have been taken negatively by the market whilst its lockup expires on Wednesday, November 6. In this note, we review the latest set of results and assess prospects for its lock-up expiry tomorrow.

UBER Lockup Expiry: Will Softbank and Others Sell? Will an Entry Point Open Up?

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Sprint/T Mobile Merger: Don't Be Surprised If This Deal Is Re-Priced

Sprint shares now trade at a 27% discount to the value implied in their T Mobile merger agreement. With federal regulatory approvals secured, that...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2019-20 Results - Lucror Analytics

Softbank’s Q2/19-20 results came in as we had expected. The numbers were focused on WeWork and SVF1’s investment, while touching very little on...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: CIFI Holdings, Country Garden Holdings Co, Modern Land China, Softbank Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Uber - 2021 Profitability a Beautiful Dream For Locked-Up Investors

Uber (-9.9%) and Lyft (-6.1%) both faced selling pressure on the day after releasing earnings that showed some marginal improvement in losses....

Mio Kato

UBER Lockup Expiry: Will Softbank and Others Sell? Will an Entry Point Open Up?

UBER reported 3Q results yesterday which have been taken negatively by the market whilst its lockup expires on Wednesday, November 6. In this note,...

Rickin Thakrar

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