Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Last year at Q3 results, Softbank shares jumped on a surprise buy-back. This year, interest from activist investors and good news on Sprint have driven a similar rebound. News reports indicate a favorable ruling in the court case filed by a coalition of state attorneys general should be announced as early as this morning US time, clearing the way for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-mobile-us-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:922:1" rel="noopener">T Mobile Us Inc (TMUS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sprint-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:921:1" rel="noopener">Sprint Corp (S US)</a> to finalize their merger. This is obviously great news for Sprint, whose shares were up 60%+ in the aftermarket and have room to run further.</p><p>It is better news for Softbank, which should capture that upside (a minimum of ~¥230/share for S share price gains net)  not to mention a further tightening of the holding company discount as concerns on the need for a further $5-10bn in capital investment for Sprint go away. In addition, it gives Softbank cover to deal with Elliott's activism on its own terms whilst the shift in momentum should minimize any worries on Vision Fund that arise in Q3 commentary. We do believe the Sprint/T Mobile merger terms could be revised as a new merger agreement needs to be signed but considering the depths that Sprint shares fell over the last three months that barely rates as an issue now.</p>

Last year at Q3 results, Softbank shares jumped on a surprise buy-back. This year, interest from activist investors and good news on Sprint have driven a similar rebound. News reports indicate a favorable ruling in the court case filed by a coalition of state attorneys general should be announced as early as this morning US time, clearing the way for T Mobile Us Inc (TMUS US) and Sprint Corp (S US) to finalize their merger. This is obviously great news for Sprint, whose shares were up 60%+ in the aftermarket and have room to run further.It is better news for Softbank, which should capture that upside (a minimum of ~¥230/share for S share price gains net)  not to mention a further tightening of the holding company discount as concerns on the need for a further $5-10bn in capital investment for Sprint go away. In addition, it gives Softbank cover to deal with Elliott's activism on its own terms whilst the shift in momentum should minimize any worries on Vision Fund that arise in Q3 commentary. We do believe the Sprint/T Mobile merger terms could be revised as a new merger agreement needs to be signed but considering the depths that Sprint shares fell over the last three months that barely rates as an issue now.

Softbank Group: Sprint Approval Makes a Good Week Great, Just like Last Year

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-3121'>Lippo Karawaci</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8375'>Shimao Property Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8898'>Sino Ocean Land</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-27445'>Softbank Corp</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-216'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20934'>Tata Steel Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.JSW Steel LtdLippo KarawaciShimao Property HoldingsSino Ocean LandSoftbank CorpTata Motors LtdTata Steel Ltd

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Lippo Karawaci, Shimao Property Holdings, Sino Ocean Land

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/923/original/2020-02-08_18-15-45.png?1581196263" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116923"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/924/original/2020-02-09_06-34-51.png?1581197706" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116924"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>OOOPS!</strong> - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>.  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/925/original/2020-02-08_10-48-19.png?1581199859" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116925"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>18x EARNINGS</strong> - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/927/original/2020-02-08_10-55-21.png?1581200256" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116927"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>TTM RESULTS</strong> - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/928/original/2020-02-08_10-59-00.png?1581200533" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116928"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsOOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from Softbank Corp (9434 JP) and Honda Motor (7267 JP).  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. Source • Japan Analytics18x EARNINGS - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.Source • Japan AnalyticsTTM RESULTS - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.Source • Japan AnalyticsFORECASTS - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

<p>Softbank shares are up 6% on news that Elliott Management has built up a $2.5bn (c. 3%) stake and is talking to management on enhancing value. That would reportedly entail a $20bn share buyback, greater visibility on Vision Fund investments and strengthening independent directors. And as we wrote a few days ago, that is relevant as shares are trading at a historically high discount to fair value. In the past, Softbank has been open to buying back stock at times like this but the WeWork debacle last year and hopes for a Vision Fund 2 had seemingly ruled that out. Elliott thinks Masa can do it by selling some of his Alibaba shares which makes sense to us but has been a red line in the past. All else remaining equal, Softbank could resist this kind of pressure but a failed Sprint/TMUS merger, weakness at WeWork and a need to fund Vision Fund 2 could force Softbank’s hand.  We think chances of a some sort of buyback have risen and a further reduction in the discount to fair value is possible. </p>

Softbank shares are up 6% on news that Elliott Management has built up a $2.5bn (c. 3%) stake and is talking to management on enhancing value. That would reportedly entail a $20bn share buyback, greater visibility on Vision Fund investments and strengthening independent directors. And as we wrote a few days ago, that is relevant as shares are trading at a historically high discount to fair value. In the past, Softbank has been open to buying back stock at times like this but the WeWork debacle last year and hopes for a Vision Fund 2 had seemingly ruled that out. Elliott thinks Masa can do it by selling some of his Alibaba shares which makes sense to us but has been a red line in the past. All else remaining equal, Softbank could resist this kind of pressure but a failed Sprint/TMUS merger, weakness at WeWork and a need to fund Vision Fund 2 could force Softbank’s hand.  We think chances of a some sort of buyback have risen and a further reduction in the discount to fair value is possible. 

Softbank G: Elliott's Activist Intervention Is Well-Timed Especially if the Sprint Merger Is Blocked

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> Q3 19 results included the first details on the integration of Zozo, a firming up of guidance at the top of the range for operating profit, organic eCommerce sales growth ahead of the overall market and robust usage in its cashless payment app PayPay which likely remains the market leader.  Advertising revenue appears softer than expected and the company is guiding lower but eCommerce/fintech upside more than compensates. As with other consumer companies, quarterly trends have been impacted by the consumption tax hike on 1 October which makes Q3 YoY comps look weaker but this was a good quarter. </p>

Z Holdings (4689 JP) Q3 19 results included the first details on the integration of Zozo, a firming up of guidance at the top of the range for operating profit, organic eCommerce sales growth ahead of the overall market and robust usage in its cashless payment app PayPay which likely remains the market leader.  Advertising revenue appears softer than expected and the company is guiding lower but eCommerce/fintech upside more than compensates. As with other consumer companies, quarterly trends have been impacted by the consumption tax hike on 1 October which makes Q3 YoY comps look weaker but this was a good quarter. 

Z Holdings: Solid Quarter Even Before Zozo Integration

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Softbank Group: Sprint Approval Makes a Good Week Great, Just like Last Year

Last year at Q3 results, Softbank shares jumped on a surprise buy-back. This year, interest from activist investors and good news on Sprint have...

Kirk Boodry

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Lippo Karawaci, Shimao Property Holdings, Sino Ocean Land

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

OOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of...

Campbell Gunn

Softbank G: Elliott's Activist Intervention Is Well-Timed Especially if the Sprint Merger Is Blocked

Softbank shares are up 6% on news that Elliott Management has built up a $2.5bn (c. 3%) stake and is talking to management on enhancing value. That...

Kirk Boodry

Z Holdings: Solid Quarter Even Before Zozo Integration

Z Holdings (4689 JP) Q3 19 results included the first details on the integration of Zozo, a firming up of guidance at the top of the range for...

Kirk Boodry

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