Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

After a lacklustre week of range-bound trading, crude ended higher on Friday, though well off its session highs. 
Crude was buoyed by strong investor cheer, which prompted an across-the-globe rally in the stock markets. The burst of euphoria was prompted by promising signs from the just-concluded high-level trade negotiations between the US and China in Beijing, though arguably throwing caution to the winds.
The American president fired his second tweet of the year at OPEC on Thursday. It was “very important that OPEC increase the flow of oil,” he said, because the price of oil was “getting too high.” The producers as well as market participants decided not to heed this time.
However, the pressure from Donald Trump is bound to intensify if Brent sustains a rally above $70, and OPEC and its Saudi leadership will not be able to continue ignoring it.
Aramco agreeing with the Public Investment Fund to buy 70% of petrochemicals giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27316" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27316:1">Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC AB)</a> for $69.1 billion marks a new era for the companies. However, it does not mean that the Aramco IPO would be shelved, and directly or indirectly, we don't expect it to derail Saudi Arabia’s strategy of actively managing oil supply through OPEC.
Our chart of the week shows that speculative bets on a price rally continue to return to Brent and WTI futures, but cautiously.

After a lacklustre week of range-bound trading, crude ended higher on Friday, though well off its session highs. 
Crude was buoyed by strong investor cheer, which prompted an across-the-globe rally in the stock markets. The burst of euphoria was prompted by promising signs from the just-concluded high-level trade negotiations between the US and China in Beijing, though arguably throwing caution to the winds.
The American president fired his second tweet of the year at OPEC on Thursday. It was “very important that OPEC increase the flow of oil,” he said, because the price of oil was “getting too high.” The producers as well as market participants decided not to heed this time.
However, the pressure from Donald Trump is bound to intensify if Brent sustains a rally above $70, and OPEC and its Saudi leadership will not be able to continue ignoring it.
Aramco agreeing with the Public Investment Fund to buy 70% of petrochemicals giant Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC AB) for $69.1 billion marks a new era for the companies. However, it does not mean that the Aramco IPO would be shelved, and directly or indirectly, we don't expect it to derail Saudi Arabia’s strategy of actively managing oil supply through OPEC.
Our chart of the week shows that speculative bets on a price rally continue to return to Brent and WTI futures, but cautiously.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude's Cursory Nod to US-China Deal Optimism Is Par for the Course

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

In December (13 Dec after trading hours), the FT had an <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f5205604-ff0f-11e8-ac00-57a2a826423e" target="_blank">article</a> noting that Germany's leading property classifieds firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21629" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21629:1">Scout24 AG (G24 GR)</a> (also known for auto classifieds across Europe) was possibly looking to sell itself and that PE firms were lining up to bid. Silver Lake, which had bought British player ZPG (which operates property portals Zoopla and PrimeLocation) for $2.8bn in July 2018, was mentioned as a bidder. Once owned by Deutsche Telekom, control of Scout24 was sold to Blackstone and Hellman &amp; Friedman LLC in 2013-14 (H&amp;F spent €1.5 billion to take a 70% stake in 2013, and Blackstone bought a stake of undisclosed size in 2014), and they listed the company in 2015 with an initial market cap of €3.2 billion. The IPO was €1.16 billion and both sold down, with H&amp;F fully exiting in a placement in 2016.
The share price had been doing well until Q3 last year when German lawmakers, anxious with skyrocketing property prices, started looking at revamping the structure of real estate transaction costs so that they were borne by sellers rather than loaded onto buyers. The shares fell.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/533/original/Screenshot%202019-03-29%20at%202.45.25%20AM.png?1553798952" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83533"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">source: investing.com</div>
A combination of Blackstone and Hellman &amp; Friedman LLC launched an non-LBO LBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21629" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21629:1">Scout24 AG (G24 GR)</a> in mid-January at €43.50/share (€4.7 billion) which was about an 8% premium to the then-current market price, which had already been juiced because of speculation starting after the FT article in late December. The company rejected the Offer saying it was too low. 
The two buyers came back in mid-February with a <a href="https://scout24-offer.com/download/companies/ma1023/ma1023pflicht/Section10Announcement_en.pdf" target="_blank">Takeover Offer</a> priced at €46.00/share, 5.7% higher than January's foray and 27% higher than the level pre-FT article; that was about 25x earnings and 28x 2019e cashflow, which is a bit lower than Silver Lake's ZPG buy multiple. Both Scout24’s Management Board and Supervisory Board agreed to support the offer and said they believed that the transaction is in the best interest of the Company, and an Investment Agreement was signed between the three companies.
The unusual thing about this deal is that the two PE firms are looking to buy a minimum of 50% plus one share, and leave the company listed. The shares jumped to €46 and have been trading at just below to slightly through, leaving many to think that this was a setup for a strategic buyer or possibly Silver Lake to come in over the top. 
<h2>The New News</h2>
Yesterday, the BidCo officially launched its <a href="https://scout24-offer.com/download/companies/ma1023/ma1023/20190328_OfferDocumentPulverBidCoGmbH_en.pdf" target="_blank">Tender Offer</a> at €46, due to run through 9th May.
More discussion below.

In December (13 Dec after trading hours), the FT had an article noting that Germany's leading property classifieds firm Scout24 AG (G24 GR) (also known for auto classifieds across Europe) was possibly looking to sell itself and that PE firms were lining up to bid. Silver Lake, which had bought British player ZPG (which operates property portals Zoopla and PrimeLocation) for $2.8bn in July 2018, was mentioned as a bidder. Once owned by Deutsche Telekom, control of Scout24 was sold to Blackstone and Hellman &amp; Friedman LLC in 2013-14 (H&amp;F spent €1.5 billion to take a 70% stake in 2013, and Blackstone bought a stake of undisclosed size in 2014), and they listed the company in 2015 with an initial market cap of €3.2 billion. The IPO was €1.16 billion and both sold down, with H&amp;F fully exiting in a placement in 2016.
The share price had been doing well until Q3 last year when German lawmakers, anxious with skyrocketing property prices, started looking at revamping the structure of real estate transaction costs so that they were borne by sellers rather than loaded onto buyers. The shares fell.

source: investing.com
A combination of Blackstone and Hellman &amp; Friedman LLC launched an non-LBO LBO for Scout24 AG (G24 GR) in mid-January at €43.50/share (€4.7 billion) which was about an 8% premium to the then-current market price, which had already been juiced because of speculation starting after the FT article in late December. The company rejected the Offer saying it was too low. 
The two buyers came back in mid-February with a Takeover Offer priced at €46.00/share, 5.7% higher than January's foray and 27% higher than the level pre-FT article; that was about 25x earnings and 28x 2019e cashflow, which is a bit lower than Silver Lake's ZPG buy multiple. Both Scout24’s Management Board and Supervisory Board agreed to support the offer and said they believed that the transaction is in the best interest of the Company, and an Investment Agreement was signed between the three companies.
The unusual thing about this deal is that the two PE firms are looking to buy a minimum of 50% plus one share, and leave the company listed. The shares jumped to €46 and have been trading at just below to slightly through, leaving many to think that this was a setup for a strategic buyer or possibly Silver Lake to come in over the top. 
The New News
Yesterday, the BidCo officially launched its Tender Offer at €46, due to run through 9th May.
More discussion below.

Scout24 Tender Offer Launched: Price Still Not Quite Full

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for March includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for March includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - March 2019 - Lucror Analytics

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/081/407/original/2019-03-09_14-25-50.png?1552109168" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="81407"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-the-2018-q3-cash-flow-stakes-runners-riders-red-flags" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26816">Insight</a> with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market composite cash flow model reformulates disclosed cash flows into four categories which sum to Change in Cash: -
<ul>
<li>Operating Cash Flow</li>
<li>
Investing Cash Flow (which includes Inventory Cash Flow) 
<ul>
<li>Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow less Investing Cash Flow)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Financing Cash Flow</li>
<li>Shareholder Cash Flow  (Equity Cash Flow and Dividend Cash Flow) </li>
</ul>
     =  Change in Cash (including Minorities Cash Flow)
OCF COLLAPSES - In the last three months, Japan's non-financial companies generated only ¥2.1t in Operating Cash Flow (OCF), ¥10.1t less than the previous quarter. ¥2.1t is the lowest quarterly OCF since 2016-Q2, and the quarter-on-quarter decline is the largest since 2009 and represents a substantial 'red flag' for the market.
FCF NEGATIVE - Aggregate spending on fixed assets shrunk by ¥4.5t qoq to ¥4.6t resulting in Free Cash Flow for the quarter of -¥2.5t, the first negative Free Cash Flow quarter since 2012-Q4. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> together generated ¥3.3t in positive Free Cash Flow for the quarter. Excluding these three companies, the aggregate total quarterly FCF was -¥5.8t, equivalent to an annualised Free Cash Flow yield of -4.3% for the universe of listed non-financial companies.
BACK TO BORROWING - To finance ¥4.5t in dividend payments, Japanese non-financial companies borrowed ¥4.8t in new debt, sold investment securities worth ¥1.9t (the most significant reduction since 2016-Q2) and raised 0.28t in new equity net of share buybacks. This increase in financing cash flow was the largest in any quarter since 2009.
SECTORS &amp; STOCKS - In the DETAIL below, we also look at sector cash flow trends and provide brief comments on some of the most significant changes in individual cash flows over the last three months including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Pan Pacific International (7532 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1040" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6391:1">I</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6391:1">DOM (7599 JP)</a>



Source: Japan Analytics

JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous Insight with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market composite cash flow model reformulates disclosed cash flows into four categories which sum to Change in Cash: -

Operating Cash Flow

Investing Cash Flow (which includes Inventory Cash Flow) 

Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow less Investing Cash Flow)


Financing Cash Flow
Shareholder Cash Flow  (Equity Cash Flow and Dividend Cash Flow) 

     =  Change in Cash (including Minorities Cash Flow)
OCF COLLAPSES - In the last three months, Japan's non-financial companies generated only ¥2.1t in Operating Cash Flow (OCF), ¥10.1t less than the previous quarter. ¥2.1t is the lowest quarterly OCF since 2016-Q2, and the quarter-on-quarter decline is the largest since 2009 and represents a substantial 'red flag' for the market.
FCF NEGATIVE - Aggregate spending on fixed assets shrunk by ¥4.5t qoq to ¥4.6t resulting in Free Cash Flow for the quarter of -¥2.5t, the first negative Free Cash Flow quarter since 2012-Q4. Softbank Group (9984 JP), NTT Docomo (9437 JP) and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) together generated ¥3.3t in positive Free Cash Flow for the quarter. Excluding these three companies, the aggregate total quarterly FCF was -¥5.8t, equivalent to an annualised Free Cash Flow yield of -4.3% for the universe of listed non-financial companies.
BACK TO BORROWING - To finance ¥4.5t in dividend payments, Japanese non-financial companies borrowed ¥4.8t in new debt, sold investment securities worth ¥1.9t (the most significant reduction since 2016-Q2) and raised 0.28t in new equity net of share buybacks. This increase in financing cash flow was the largest in any quarter since 2009.
SECTORS &amp; STOCKS - In the DETAIL below, we also look at sector cash flow trends and provide brief comments on some of the most significant changes in individual cash flows over the last three months including Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP), Pan Pacific International (7532 JP),  Lawson (2651 JP), and IDOM (7599 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Largest QoQ Decline in Operating Cash Flow in a Decade - Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 08 Mar 2019

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

Weekly Oil Views: Crude's Cursory Nod to US-China Deal Optimism Is Par for the Course

After a lacklustre week of range-bound trading, crude ended higher on Friday, though well off its session highs. Crude was buoyed by strong...

Vandana Hari

Scout24 Tender Offer Launched: Price Still Not Quite Full

In December (13 Dec after trading hours), the FT had an article noting that Germany's leading property classifieds firm Scout24 AG (G24 GR) (also...

Travis Lundy

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - March 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for March includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

🇯🇵 Japan • Largest QoQ Decline in Operating Cash Flow in a Decade - Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous Insight with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market...

Campbell Gunn

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 08 Mar 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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