Freelance Research Analyst

Tay Hock Meng

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We often hear people asking each other whether now is the good time to upgrade or buy the private condominium or apartment they have always wanted given that developers are offering many so-called &lsquo;star&rsquo; buys of properties in the hope of clearing their housing inventories, and the spectre of higher interest rates, such as the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) which could rise to an expected 2% this year (As of Oct 9, three-month SIBOR stands at 1.13%). Could this be an opportunity to enter the market, before the market turns for the worst?

We often hear people asking each other whether now is the good time to upgrade or buy the private condominium or apartment they have always wanted given that developers are offering many so-called &lsquo;star&rsquo; buys of properties in the hope of clearing their housing inventories, and the spectre of higher interest rates, such as the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) which could rise to an expected 2% this year (As of Oct 9, three-month SIBOR stands at 1.13%). Could this be an opportunity to enter the market, before the market turns for the worst?

Has the private housing market reached stability?

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has released its overall 3Q2015 flash property price index (PPI) showing a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) decline of 1.3% against 2Q2015, as compared to 0.9% decline in 2Q2015. The city centre or core central region (CCR) prices declined 1.3% versus 0.6% in 2Q2015, while city fringe (RCR) and suburban (OCR) prices declined 1.5% and 1.6% q-o-q respectively. 2Q2015 RCR and OCR prices showed 0.6% and 1.1% declines respectively.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has released its overall 3Q2015 flash property price index (PPI) showing a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) decline of 1.3% against 2Q2015, as compared to 0.9% decline in 2Q2015. The city centre or core central region (CCR) prices declined 1.3% versus 0.6% in 2Q2015, while city fringe (RCR) and suburban (OCR) prices declined 1.5% and 1.6% q-o-q respectively. 2Q2015 RCR and OCR prices showed 0.6% and 1.1% declines respectively.

Has Singapore's private residential prices bottomed out?

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Mark and JP once again highlight the fault lines that run through what they consider to be the most vulnerable part of the listed Chinese corporate sector, namely the industrial and materials companies which are the most symptomatic of the broader economy.Whilst there are a number of indications that the rate of economic growth may pick up a little over the short term (property sales, land sales, consumption incentives, fiscal policy), these sectors are indicative of a deep malaise at the heart of the economy.We are especially concerned about the blow out in working capital and the ongoing deterioration in the efficacy of credit growth.&nbsp;

Mark and JP once again highlight the fault lines that run through what they consider to be the most vulnerable part of the listed Chinese corporate sector, namely the industrial and materials companies which are the most symptomatic of the broader economy.Whilst there are a number of indications that the rate of economic growth may pick up a little over the short term (property sales, land sales, consumption incentives, fiscal policy), these sectors are indicative of a deep malaise at the heart of the economy.We are especially concerned about the blow out in working capital and the ongoing deterioration in the efficacy of credit growth.&nbsp;

China: Short-term stabilization possible but underlying fault lines remain

This report examines the underlying governance factors that have driven EM underperformance over the last five years.Brazil, Russia, Malaysia and Turkey appear to have entered a vicious circle whereby lower growth leads to currency devaluation leading to policies, which are negative for both equity investors and economies and so the whole process starts up again (we still believe that of the four Turkey has the best prospects of escaping from this vortex).Most disturbingly, we believe that China as well as Indonesia may be on the verge of joining this not very select group.While sentiment towards EM has the hallmark of a short term bottom with plenty of space for bear market rallies and short squeezes, there is little sign of the positive inflection in policies, which might mark a secular turning point in individual markets or in the broader asset class.

This report examines the underlying governance factors that have driven EM underperformance over the last five years.Brazil, Russia, Malaysia and Turkey appear to have entered a vicious circle whereby lower growth leads to currency devaluation leading to policies, which are negative for both equity investors and economies and so the whole process starts up again (we still believe that of the four Turkey has the best prospects of escaping from this vortex).Most disturbingly, we believe that China as well as Indonesia may be on the verge of joining this not very select group.While sentiment towards EM has the hallmark of a short term bottom with plenty of space for bear market rallies and short squeezes, there is little sign of the positive inflection in policies, which might mark a secular turning point in individual markets or in the broader asset class.

Many (un)happy returns in EM; governance and the vicious circle

Asia's Leading Online Property Group, PropertyGuru

Bjorn Sprengers

Asia's Leading Online Property Group

PropertyGuru

PropertyGuru Pte Ltd owns and operates a real estate property information website. The Company offers facilities to search for condominiums, apartments, Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, serviced apartments, houses, and commercial properties to rent and buy in Singapore.

With prices of landed homes falling faster than their non-landed counterparts, should prospective buyers take advantage of the slow market to secure their dream home? We investigate:<ul><li>Prices and volumes for landed property have come down since the implementation of the cooling measures, and are likely to remain stagnant unless affordability increases</li><li>Freehold landed property weathers the market downturn a little better than leasehold landed property, but this does not mean leasehold landed property has become more affordable</li><li>Landed enclaves along the upcoming Thomson-East Coast MRT line are seeing increased popularity on PropertyGuru, and should enjoy higher prices and a higher volume of transactions in the medium term</li></ul>

With prices of landed homes falling faster than their non-landed counterparts, should prospective buyers take advantage of the slow market to secure their dream home? We investigate:Prices and volumes for landed property have come down since the implementation of the cooling measures, and are likely to remain stagnant unless affordability increasesFreehold landed property weathers the market downturn a little better than leasehold landed property, but this does not mean leasehold landed property has become more affordableLanded enclaves along the upcoming Thomson-East Coast MRT line are seeing increased popularity on PropertyGuru, and should enjoy higher prices and a higher volume of transactions in the medium term

Landed property ownership looking more like a reality

Singapore

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment research industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates under a single network.

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Smartkarma (SMARTKARMA SP)

Has the private housing market reached stability?

We often hear people asking each other whether now is the good time to upgrade or buy the private condominium or apartment they have always wanted...

Tay Hock Meng

Has Singapore's private residential prices bottomed out?

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has released its overall 3Q2015 flash property price index (PPI) showing a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q)...

Tay Hock Meng

China: Short-term stabilization possible but underlying fault lines remain

Mark and JP once again highlight the fault lines that run through what they consider to be the most vulnerable part of the listed Chinese corporate...

John-Paul Smith

Many (un)happy returns in EM; governance and the vicious circle

This report examines the underlying governance factors that have driven EM underperformance over the last five years.Brazil, Russia, Malaysia and...

John-Paul Smith

Landed property ownership looking more like a reality

With prices of landed homes falling faster than their non-landed counterparts, should prospective buyers take advantage of the slow market to...

PropertyGuru

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