Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>According to SCMP, Londian Wason is getting ready for an IPO in the US in 2024. Londian Wason is planning to raise nearly US$500 million in pre-IPO funding and IPO.</li>
<li>SK Inc owns about 30% stake in Londian Wason, a leading copper foil maker in China. It is estimated that SK Inc's stake is worth about US$1.1 billion. </li>
<li>In 2022, Londian Wason generated sales of 1.47 trillion won. Since SK's investment in Londian Wason in 2019, the company's sales has been growing at more than 50% per annum.</li>
</ul>


According to SCMP, Londian Wason is getting ready for an IPO in the US in 2024. Londian Wason is planning to raise nearly US$500 million in pre-IPO funding and IPO.
SK Inc owns about 30% stake in Londian Wason, a leading copper foil maker in China. It is estimated that SK Inc's stake is worth about US$1.1 billion. 
In 2022, Londian Wason generated sales of 1.47 trillion won. Since SK's investment in Londian Wason in 2019, the company's sales has been growing at more than 50% per annum.


Londian Wason Energy Tech: Planning an IPO in the US in 2024 (Impact on SK Inc)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> on Friday.</li>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.</li>
<li>Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.</li>
</ul>


The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) on Friday.
The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.
Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 17.5 trillion won (NAV per share of 239,095 won), representing a 60% upside from current levels.</li>
<li>SK Inc has underperformed most other SK Group related companies YTD but this underperformance may be excessive and SK Inc could outperform as more value investors seek deeply discounted companies.</li>
<li>SK Inc's dividend yield is 3.3%, which is higher than the dividend yields of most other major SK Group companies excluding SK Telecom which has a dividend yield of 6.5%.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 17.5 trillion won (NAV per share of 239,095 won), representing a 60% upside from current levels.
SK Inc has underperformed most other SK Group related companies YTD but this underperformance may be excessive and SK Inc could outperform as more value investors seek deeply discounted companies.
SK Inc's dividend yield is 3.3%, which is higher than the dividend yields of most other major SK Group companies excluding SK Telecom which has a dividend yield of 6.5%.


Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>As of last Friday, SKT has utilized 86.2 billion won out of the allotted 300 billion won for share buybacks, resulting in the acquisition of 1,810,242 shares.</li>
<li>If there are indications of the foreign room potentially falling to a risky level, SKT will likely proceed with an aggressive buyback, targeting 20-30% of the daily trading volume.</li>
<li>Another particularly intriguing observation is the absence of local retail flow directed towards SKT. This indicates there is still potential momentum for an upward price movement at this juncture.</li>
</ul>


As of last Friday, SKT has utilized 86.2 billion won out of the allotted 300 billion won for share buybacks, resulting in the acquisition of 1,810,242 shares.
If there are indications of the foreign room potentially falling to a risky level, SKT will likely proceed with an aggressive buyback, targeting 20-30% of the daily trading volume.
Another particularly intriguing observation is the absence of local retail flow directed towards SKT. This indicates there is still potential momentum for an upward price movement at this juncture.


Analyzing Proactive Flow Trading Targeting SK Telecom's Passive Movements

South Korea

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. is a Korean mobile and telecommunications operator. The Company provides cellular voice, wireless data, and wireless internet services. SK Telecom also offers fixed line services and platform services.

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SK Telecom (017670 KS)

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Londian Wason Energy Tech: Planning an IPO in the US in 2024 (Impact on SK Inc)

Londian Wason is getting ready for an IPO in the US in 2024. Londian Wason is planning to raise nearly US$500 million in pre-IPO funding and IPO....

Douglas Kim

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SK Inc: Updated NAV Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 17.5 trillion won (NAV per share of 239,095 won), representing a 60% upside from current levels.

Douglas Kim

Analyzing Proactive Flow Trading Targeting SK Telecom's Passive Movements

This post examines proactive flow trading focused on SK Telecom's passive movements until the end of next month, with its ongoing share buyback...

Sanghyun Park

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