HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. </li>
<li>We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.</li>
<li>Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> will fare better than others.</li>
</ul>


Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. 
We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.
Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think SITC International (1308 HK) and Sinotrans (598 HK) will fare better than others.


China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 113.5% as of Dec 16th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.9ppt weeok on week, led by health care, consumer discretionary, energy and offset by consumer staples, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Tianqi Lithium, Cansino Biologics, Air China, Cosco Ship Holding.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 113.5% as of Dec 16th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.9ppt weeok on week, led by health care, consumer discretionary, energy and offset by consumer staples, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Tianqi Lithium, Cansino Biologics, Air China, Cosco Ship Holding.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 16th): Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Tianqi Lithium

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 118.8% as of Dec 2nd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.6ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, real estate, information technology and offset by consumer discretionary, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan, Ganfeng Lithium, China Minsheng, Guolian Securities, Shanghai Fudan, Red Star Macalline, Joinn Lab, Cosco Shipping Energy, Great Wall Mortor.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 118.8% as of Dec 2nd.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.6ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, real estate, information technology and offset by consumer discretionary, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan, Ganfeng Lithium, China Minsheng, Guolian Securities, Shanghai Fudan, Red Star Macalline, Joinn Lab, Cosco Shipping Energy, Great Wall Mortor.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 2nd): China Longyuan, Ganfeng Lithium

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> delivered sustained healthy earnings in 3Q22, with reported profit rose 32.7% and recurring one up 13.2%. They are resilient given the adverse market environment.</li>
<li>Gross margin expansion and higher gross profit showed that lower freight rate has not had significant impact on profitability. DHL-Sinotrans' contribution also recovered sequentially.</li>
<li>It cancelled the 0.62% of shares that it bought back, providing enhancement to forward EPS. The 9M22 result equals 91% of full-year consensus, suggesting room for earnings upgrade.</li>
</ul>



Sinotrans (598 HK) delivered sustained healthy earnings in 3Q22, with reported profit rose 32.7% and recurring one up 13.2%. They are resilient given the adverse market environment.
Gross margin expansion and higher gross profit showed that lower freight rate has not had significant impact on profitability. DHL-Sinotrans' contribution also recovered sequentially.
It cancelled the 0.62% of shares that it bought back, providing enhancement to forward EPS. The 9M22 result equals 91% of full-year consensus, suggesting room for earnings upgrade.


Sinotrans (598 HK): Showing Its Sustained Resilience

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 22nd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Pop Mart (9992 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 22nd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Pop Mart (9992 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks: AIA, Pop Mart, Great Wall Motor

China

Sinotrans Limited provides integrated logistics services with core service of sea, air, rail and road freight forwarding, express services and shipping agency services.  The Company also provides support services of storage and terminal services, trucking and marine transportation services.

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Sinotrans (598 HK)

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 16th): Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Tianqi Lithium

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Tianqi Lithium, Cansino...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 2nd): China Longyuan, Ganfeng Lithium

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Longyuan, Ganfeng Lithium, Shanghai Fudan, Red Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sinotrans (598 HK): Showing Its Sustained Resilience

Sinotrans' healthy 3Q22 suggested profitability remains solid and it is recovering well from the challenges in 2Q22. Consensus is too low, net cash...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Buybacks: AIA, Pop Mart, Great Wall Motor

We highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from HK market in the past 7 days were Aia (1299 HK), Pop Mart (9992 HK), Great...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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