Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week's FOMC announcement and quad witching allowed for some breadth improvement, and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Russell Micro Cap indexes broke above their respective downtrends.</li>
<li>While this is undoubtedly a positive, we are waiting for more confirmation. It is not uncommon to have misdirection following important FOMC meetings.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000(IWM) remains below major resistance at $209, which was support for all of 2021. This is arguably the most important resistance level in regards to the broad market.</li>
</ul>


Last week's FOMC announcement and quad witching allowed for some breadth improvement, and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Russell Micro Cap indexes broke above their respective downtrends.
While this is undoubtedly a positive, we are waiting for more confirmation. It is not uncommon to have misdirection following important FOMC meetings.
The Russell 2000(IWM) remains below major resistance at $209, which was support for all of 2021. This is arguably the most important resistance level in regards to the broad market.


Russell 2000 Testing Resistance; Buying Steel, Copper, Uranium, Ag Equipment Stocks

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Charts Highlighted: XLE, RYE, WTI Crude Oil, XLF, XLB, XLI, RCD, EEM, XLU, XLP, AWK, AEE, WMT, PEP, NUE, STLD, X, CMC, SMSMY, SCHN, RYI, TMST, MT, TX, MTL, ETR, FTS, CMS, CNP, LNT, NI, OGE, BKH, NEE, DUK, SO, and AEPCyclical value areas including Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary display short-term improvement as interest rates show signs of a potential bottom at 1.13%. This is encouraging, however we are still neutral yet constructive overall. As we noted last week, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield breach, and hold above, 1.45%, as well as sustained price improvement by small-caps (i.e., IWM above $234.50) before we can declare a new broad-based bull market.

Charts Highlighted: XLE, RYE, WTI Crude Oil, XLF, XLB, XLI, RCD, EEM, XLU, XLP, AWK, AEE, WMT, PEP, NUE, STLD, X, CMC, SMSMY, SCHN, RYI, TMST, MT, TX, MTL, ETR, FTS, CMS, CNP, LNT, NI, OGE, BKH, NEE, DUK, SO, and AEPCyclical value areas including Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary display short-term improvement as interest rates show signs of a potential bottom at 1.13%. This is encouraging, however we are still neutral yet constructive overall. As we noted last week, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield breach, and hold above, 1.45%, as well as sustained price improvement by small-caps (i.e., IWM above $234.50) before we can declare a new broad-based bull market.

10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buying Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Steel Stocks

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

Australia

Sims Metal Management Ltd. collects, sorts and processes scrap metal materials which are recycled for resale. The Company's divisions include ferrous recycling, non-ferrous recycling, secondary processing of non-ferrous metals and plastics, international trading of metal commodities and the merchandising of steel semi-fabricated products.

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Sims Metal Management (SGM AU)

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 Testing Resistance; Buying Steel, Copper, Uranium, Ag Equipment Stocks

The Russell 2000 $IWM remains below major resistance at $209, which was support for all of 2021. This is arguably the most important resistance...

Vermilion Research

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buying Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Steel Stocks

Cyclical value areas are improving, but so are defensives. In order to get more bullish, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield break above...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

The weight of the evidence suggests pullbacks to 4000-4040 on the S&P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. We also explain why we...

Vermilion Research

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