Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goviex-uranium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35742:1" rel="noopener">GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN)</a> will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Equity Bottom-Up

Lithium Americas Argentina Cor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of 0.18% and short book returns of 0.03%.</li><li>In 2024, the strategy was up 12.1% net of fees, with gross of fees gains from the long book of 12.1% and short book of 1.0%.</li><li>Through the 21st of January 2025, the portfolio is up 6.6%.</li></ul>

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of 0.18% and short book returns of 0.03%.In 2024, the strategy was up 12.1% net of fees, with gross of fees gains from the long book of 12.1% and short book of 1.0%.Through the 21st of January 2025, the portfolio is up 6.6%.

Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.</li><li>Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.</li><li>We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.</li></ul>

Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.

Macroeconomics

<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li>Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry performance.</li><li>Interesting trends in the gold market: We examine gold prices and propose a shift from wealth-driven to fear-driven consumption patterns. We also identify several events that could reduce fear and slow gold price momentum.</li><li>The evolving situation at OCI: The fund holds a 6% position in OCI, a global fertilizer business that announced two significant asset sales in December 2023, from which we expect to receive a substantial capital return in 2024.</li></ul></div>

Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry performance.Interesting trends in the gold market: We examine gold prices and propose a shift from wealth-driven to fear-driven consumption patterns. We also identify several events that could reduce fear and slow gold price momentum.The evolving situation at OCI: The fund holds a 6% position in OCI, a global fertilizer business that announced two significant asset sales in December 2023, from which we expect to receive a substantial capital return in 2024.

Germany

Siemens Energy AG operates as a renewable energy company. The Company offers power generation and transmission, technical consultancy, and operation and maintenance services. Siemens Energy serves customers worldwide.

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Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete

GoviEx Uranium will be deleted from the URA ETF on Friday. The deletion plus capping changes lead to a one-way turnover of 5.8% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Massif Capital 4th Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

During the fourth quarter of 2024, the Massif Capital Real Assets Strategy was up 0.04% net of fees, with gross of fee gains from the long book of...

Massif Capital Research

2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future...

Massif Capital Research

1st Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry...

Massif Capital Research

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